Posted on 08/18/2018 6:20:39 PM PDT by 11th_VA
... “In 2016, a lot of us assumed we knew what would happen in Michigan and Wisconsin,” Salvanto told The Post. “It was a great lesson for us pollsters: Even if you think you know what will happen, poll it if you can.”
Blame it on the Blue Wall. Since 1992, in six consecutive presidential elections, a solid block of 18 states had voted for the Democrat every single time. They would have given Clinton 239 electoral votes — 89 percent of the way to victory — if she had held on to them all.
Few bothered to ask those states’ voters what they thought, though. “Pre-election polling in the Midwest . . . just wasn’t there,” Salvanto said. When Trump knocked out Michigan and Wisconsin, two of Clinton’s critical Rust Belt supports, her Blue Wall crumbled...
For 2018, the CBS News Battleground Tracker has gathered a panel of nearly 5,700 registered voters. Almost all of them live in the 50 to 60 districts that might switch from Republican to Democrat, or vice versa, in November — the only races that matter, when it comes to control of Congress.
Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. “In this era, a district’s voting patterns from the past tend to stay that way,” Salvanto said. “Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines.” Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Thanks!
...and maybe A LOT of seats! As many as TEN!
Well, they disrupted one school shooter training camp. How many more are out there? How much funding are they getting from the .gov?
Always enjoy your optimism. Trump doing so well in spite of the enemies with in and without that God must not let fail. A Majority House and Senator must be this Fall for us...she then to utterly destroy the left in 2020.
Listen I appreciate LS and all he contributes to the site but the special elections aren’t the only time. He had some really bad Ohio numbers under the Romney versus Obama presidential election.
All well and good but Republicans are notoriously lazy and cowardly for mid term elections.
There must be a concerted message from the President at EVERY event that he needs their support in this election and the next two in order to complete his vision for renewing this nation’s promise for every forgotten man. Everyone discarded by the likes of Hillary Clinton, barrack obama, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and every other radical Progressive Democrat Socialist running and guiding the Democrat party today in opposition to the Americans who are the traditional Democrat voters.
But bottom line: If WE DON’T VOTE TO DIMINISH THE DEMOCRATS WE HAVE VOTED FOR EVENTUAL TOTALITARIANISM.
If I can be Mr. Obvious for a moment, it seems to me all of this “Blue Wave” rhetoric is simply a set-up to again blame a “surprise” Republican victory on some sort of election tampering.
“...Trump support as strong as concrete and only increasing bit by bit.”
Every single person I know that voted for Trump is solid as a rock and MAD AS HELL at the Leftist deep state coup attempt by Obama administration and the fake news. A bunch of non Trump voters I know would vote for him today because 1) they like the way he always puts America First and 2) it’s obvious the Mueller investigation is a partisan witch hunt and it’s obvious the anti Trump MSM is entirely fake and partisan - and they are embarrassed to be Democrats!
I had a crazy thought the other day:
What if Trump is purposely prolonging the Mueller investigation because it brings out the worst in Democrats? He lets them think he’s vulnerable - the Democrats smell blood and their fangs come out - the voters get to see the Democrats for what they really are - blood sucking vampires.
It would explain why Trump never lifts a pinky finger to stop the Mueller investigation or to make any personnel changes in the DOJ that might put an end to the witch hunt.
Other than a few mild Twitter threats that are never followed up with action, you’d think Trump is perfectly content with being seen as the victim of a political witch hunt. And maybe he is.
Any thoughts?
You gotta be some kind of ridiculous putz not to get a second term in the House (although this douchebag is the ridiculous-putz-not-to-get-a-second-term proof-of-concept).
What these 'pollsters' don't understand is they are leaning on 'Hillary-won-by' in these California Districts as the crux of the argument, utterly without comprehending that Cankles spent millions late in her f a i l e d campaign, to prop up her popular vote in safe districts, literally as part of a Brazile boondoggle.
"Then there was the time the campaign, instead of spending its cash in competitive states the candidate needed to win to clinch an electoral college victory, sent millions to the Democratic National Committee, which used the money to run up vote totals in uncompetitive states so Clinton would win the popular vote:But there also were millions approved for transfer from Clinton’s campaign for use by the DNC — which, under a plan devised by Brazile to drum up urban turnout out of fear that Trump would win the popular vote while losing the electoral vote."
There is absolutely no way these 'pollsters' should be relying on that 'data'. Without the kind of serious walking-around general election money that it takes to get Amish to sit on a hot bus and eat a ham sandwich as they are being driven from precinct to precinct -- never seen that employed to any successful degree in a mid-term.
But the Democrats insistence on installing borderline-unconstitutional jungle primaries in California delivered Harley Rouda as the challenger, who is one of those classic low-energy Donk feebs who come across as likable losers (and that kind of gestalt punches above its weight in the outcome of Congressional races).
Then when many of us were praying for a miracle you were mentally picking out Trump's cabinet. You seem optimistic again ... makes me happy.
If we pass 60 in the Senate. Chucky Cheese is gone as minority leader, and no filibusters
I saw a cartoon (Branco constitution.com) where the donkey was holding a sign it said:
WE PLEDGE TO;
RAISE YOUR TAXES
PUT ILLEGAL ALIENS AHEAD OF AMERICAN CITIZENS
IMPEACH TRUMP
TAKE YOUR GUNS
OPEN BORDERS
and the donkey said, “watch out for the Big blue Wave!”
The sheeple are waking up!
Voter Fraud
It will be massive - especially in House races to be able to impeach PDJT.
The totalitarian communists have no other play to regain control.
Voter Fraud
It will be massive -
That is why NOW every freeper needs to contact their election office. Take off work Nov 6th and work the election.
OUR eyes must be on the polling places and the process.
The easiest way and most effective is from the inside.
THEY do this, we MUST also.
If all slots are taken, be a poll watcher!
Thanks LS, for staying on top of this! Much appreciated...
My tinfoil is expecting an October Surprise from the liberals.
I would expect a school shooting around mid-to late October, first week of November.
To catch the news cycle and inspire those liberals to get out and liberal it up.
So I say INCREASE school security ESPECIALLY in that time frame.
But, I’ll just call it tinfoil for now.
If that comes off as I don’t trust liberals not to try anything, and I do mean anything to regain power, it is because I do NOT trust liberals. They’re like a Nazi cult. Propaganda, anti-2nd Amendment, and yes, lately, burning books.
But always wear the shiny side out, I say.
It was Pennsylvania which put him over 270. Michigan wasn't decided until several hours later.
Of course, I am glad we won Michigan, but it was icing on the cake by that point. And we came so close in Minnesota and New Hampshire.
In the case of NH.. Same day registration, students from MA and literal convoys from upstate NY all parked at the tax-free outlets for like...hmm.. half an hour.
I happened to be up at Merrimack that day. Elderly white Liberal and non English Speakers, Chinese Tourists and a ton of Muzzies. They all had walking around money to last half an hour! NH is dumb lawed due to Jeanne Shaheen (D. N.H)
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