Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
A brilliant summation.
Ok, question to any FReeper out there. I remember reading in the House version that there was a provision that would prevent illegals from filing their fraudulent tax returns for the EITC. Was this true, and did this pass in the Senate version? Thank you.
“keep moreof your own money” is a better way of saying what is happening. Some low income/welfare people think that with income tax refunds, the government sends more money to rich people than to poor people. Their Dem masters are happy for them to stay uninformed.
This is the biggest tax INCREASE in California state history. This is not a tax cut bill, it’s a TAX REDISTRIBUTION BILL.
And for the LIBERALS here cheering tax redistribution, just wait 4-8 years when the Dems are back in power, they will raise YOUR TAXES to match.
I stayed up and watched the votes on the amendments and the final vote. Pretty late for Atlanta time.
I don’t like the idea of the Federal Govt interfering in the home purchasing system, but they have been for many years. That is how we all have the idea that interest paid should be deductible. Can you remember when we used to be able to deduct all interest paid? This was to encourage going into debt. But the government finally stopped doing this. I believe student debt is deductible but under the new tax system it will not be.
All I can say about home mortgage deduction is that maybe the government should find another way to encourage home purchases — if that it the idea. As to purchasing an expensive home so that one has as large a mortgage as one can handle, I do not think that is a good idea. (I got burned by this once when my home price fell and I had to sell into a down market.) So you see the actions of the government to mess with a market cause lots of problems.
Now, one other thing, the places where this deduction loss hit the hardest are the high tax mostly blue states — and guess what? these are voters who say they want us all to pay more taxes. Is this political payback or karma?
Could you be more specific? I could not find it with a search or looking at the site. Thanks!
You are in the central time zone, as I am. I watched FNC and kept checking C-Span2, but I went to sleep around 10, because I couldn’t keep my eyes open anymore
Freee-dame, I Agree totally. That is certainly by design.
I blame it on INTENTIONAL public & university Non-education of the population. Not to mention making the tax system so convoluted a lot don’t even try to understand what is going on with it.
It absolutely amazes me people getting upset because they feel they are owed the money someone else worked for.
Did McCain sign the tax bill or has that happened yet?
Is the elimination of the medical expense deduction still in the Senate bill? It is still in the house version I think:
https://khn.org/news/house-tax-bill-would-scrap-deduction-for-medical-expenses/
Going to be bad for my middle class parents with Dad in skilled nursing at $8K+ /mo.. Why all the playing with deductions? Either eliminate all deductions (including “standard & “personal”) and adjust the tax rate to compensate and result in a tax cut, or leave them “as-is” and adjust the tax rate for a middle-class tax cut. This “picking & choosing middle class winners & losers” is bogus.
Which in the end, probably means my tax debt drops by $2.36 cents. The stinking congress scum gives theirselves thousands of our tax dollars in salary and benefits, retirement, medical, while giving us something like $1.50 last year in a Medicare raise and $2.50 in military retirement pay. Really nice of those scum, who sit on their worthless @$$e$ and live the good life, while those who serve and worked their collective butts off building this Republic, get screwed year after year after year after year after, you get the drift. I can remember the story that my Mom told me many years ago. There was a group of Seniors who were born from like 1918 thru 1925 or something like that, that actually got LESS in Social Security payments than those born before and after those dates. She never got a clear reason they were screwed like that, but her check was actually less than my grandmother’s, my Mom’s Mom got. Go figure how these punks figured this crap out.
“I don’t like the idea of the Federal Govt interfering...but they have been for many years... ...the actions of the government to mess with a market cause lots of problems.”
So, rather than actually reducing Federal market manipulation, you’re content with moving the levers in your team’s direction for now. Got it.
“ ... the places where this deduction loss hit the hardest are the high tax mostly blue states...”
This is patently not true—TX and FL being two glaring examples. Even if it were, this is the same BS that allows Washington to pit red vs blue so the leviathan can continue its growth unimpeded.
Well if they’re angry, then it’s a fantastic sign!
Democratic candidates will also offer voters a restoration of the deductions that this tax redistribution package ends or reduces, which amounts to an offer of cash, and cash is the biggest motivation for most voters.
“The two biggest things that need to be changed are the tax deductibility of corporate interest payments (companies use debt to fund expansion, rendering themselves vulnerable to corporate raiders or recession; if companies were forced to issue stock for expansion, we’d see executives planning for the long term rather than stuffing their own pockets).”
Both the versions lower companies ability to deduct interest on debt.
I want to say I have followed this thread and
dialog and you have been respectable and very
fair in stating your side. I don’t see you as
a anti-Trump person but one that is just thinking
and exercising your opinion.
I have not even formed a opinion either way on
the tax reform bill.
I did learn during the Presidential election
last year that there are those on FR that crucify
their own if anyone mentions a different opinion than
their own,name calling etc.
Sad but true. Stand tall. You have done nothing
wrong.
“You bitch about subsidies for the “rich” - but you want me to subsidize those who live in high-income-tax states.”
Being a liberal, she doesn’t see it that way. She sees herself as a “victim” of us, even though she and her ilk screwed the low SALT States for decades.
Thank you very much.
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