Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
Hmmmm....The Law of Unintended Consequences?
The fact that Blue State RATs will never vote for another Republican?
Ah! The Corksucker was good to his word....for the first time!
True, and they should have gotten a break as well. But people who elect irresponsible tax and spend dems in their states should pay for what they voted for.
“Kneel to your money masters”
I kneel only to Jesus Christ my Lord & Savior. I gladly forgive your for the disparagement.
“The problem isn’t with the states the problem is with the feds. “
I agree with that 100%. Fedzilla should not be paying for California’s or New York’s or any other state’s taxation on their citizens.
High taxation states will no longer be able to continue their exorbitant spending because over time people will migrate to other states decreasing the size of their tax base. Progressives, being morons by nature, will undoubtedly jack up their citizens taxes & fees creating more migration & that cycle will continue until voters in that state decide they’ve been taxed enough & take control of their state back from the RATs.
Reagan called it “voting with their feet”. Does that making him a “Hamilton follower” too?
States should be sending less of our money to Fedzilla. Fedzilla need to spend less of our $$$ as well. I believe this tax bill in the long term leads to this happening.
Amen!!! You nailed it.
great post!
And how are federal taxes any different? How is taking money away from someone at a rate of 35% while sending someone money they didn’t pay in taxes, an earned income tax credit, not redistributing wealth? In fact this tax plan is written to jettison only enough support to keep their power in Washington by choosing who will win and who will lose.
(The fact that Blue State RATs will never vote for another Republican?)
After witnessing the economic growth coming from these tax cuts they may just want the same for their own states and vote for the only party that will deliver those cuts. Might just as easily turn a blue state red.
I totally agree. The Earned Income Credit is crazy and IS a total Redistribution of wealth.
The argument I set out was over ‘deductions’ trying to some of our money ‘back’.
The fact that the Federal Government itself is overtaxing us is another fact. Including it being used as Redistributions.
As far as this tax plan not giving enough of our money back, like Reagan said (paraphrasing) get the best you can and try later for better.
478 pages. That makes me concerned. How much pork and special treatment for special interests was snuck in there? I want a simplified tax code, without ANY bs.
“The GOPe destroyed or capped almost every measly tax deduction we had (mortgage interest, SALT taxes, medical expenses, student loans, employment tuition benefits, etc.) all so the GOPe donors and corporations could make out like bandits. And someone had to “pay for” their huge tax cut in a revenue neutral budget - you and me. They soaked the middle class.”
How can one person (you) be so wrong so much of the time. Personally I would spend more time on research and less time letting on DU, oh, excuse me. I outed you.
” Might just as easily turn a blue state red.”
That is exactly my point too. If these overtaxed states had to actually answer to their people for overtaxing (people feeling it and not getting deductions for it), then they would be more informed and forced to be responsible in who they pick for their ‘leaders’ and decision makers.
FRiend, I am not part of the Trump cult, but a corporate tax rate cut was a campaign PROMISE. I think the package as a whole sucks, but it is NOT worse that what we have presently. We expected so much better.
“My taxes are going up thousands of dollars.”
That is likely solely because you live in a state and/or city run by true socialists...and exclusively by true socialists. I feel your pain, I truly do. But what we have to do in this country today with this government is work the art of the possible. There wouldn’t be 20 votes in the Senate and barely 100 in the House for a tax bill like what you are calling for. We have garbage for government, so what Trump accomplished here is dramatic.
I do sympathize with your anger...up until 12 years ago I lived in a high tax state - run for decades exclusively by socialists who raped the citizenry for their own personal profit. Today I work and live in one of the ten lowest tax states...I got a measly $1200 deduction each year for SALT. I make about 200K per year and this year i’ll make about 20K more than last year - and even with that 20K in added salary I will pay under this new bill more than $4K less in taxes. That’s about a 6K cut...so yes it is a middle class tax cut. And it will be fun to see those top ten tax states scurry to lower their taxes...and if they don’t, look at your neighbors for the reason.
Like people, States need to get off their drugs...their drugs are their high state taxes that benefit no one but the socialists who get elected in those states. Maybe those states need a hard dose of reality that will make them stop stealing from their own citizens. The answer for you is closer to home. If your state has to stop stealing your money, you too will be better off.
GREAT POST!
I wonder if the bit is still in there extending the length of time you have to live in a home before you can take the capital gains exemption. It’s always been 2, from what I can tell, that’s gone too.
Might not affect too many people, but I know of someone who took a job move, and since they had lived in it for more than 2 years, they’d be able to sell at their leisure. If that bit remained in the tax bill, if his house hasn’t sold by 12/31/17, they pay capital gains on the profit. Following the rules, but the rules change mid game, that’s what this tax bill looks like to me.
Exactly, you get the rubes hooked on the pretty giveaways and then you own them. That’s starting to break down only because of Donald Trump who administered unwelcome, doses of red pills.
Not a perfect bill by any means, but still. . . WINNING!
That is a wonderful promise. I believe The Trump Presidency will transform our economy, returning America to a land of opportunity for all with ambition, drive & the will to succeed. And we will have a wall, a secure voting system, a sensible immigration system and the rule of law.
AMT may be gone in the final bill. We will have to wait & see.
AMT is both unfair & adds complexity to filing. POTUS may push back. Also it is going to make sure a segment of Americans will have coal in their stockings. Depending on the level of income that triggers it the AMT can be effectively neutered so they do have ways to address the issue.
I do not know Sky Pilot, so I will not make any accusations; however, his/her post was copied and pasted on DU. Things that make me go Hmmmmmm?
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