Hurricane Nate

NHC/NOAA ^ | 10/5/2017 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Nate is emerging from Honduras into the Western Caribbean. Forecast models are in agreement that Nate will continue into the Gulf of Mexico. Oil companies have begun evacuations of offshore platforms.

Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, have been issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice given by local officials.

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar New Orleans, LA
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Mobile, LA
Bouy Data Gulf of Mexico

[rodguy911]

x I guess the big question would be the intensity how strong the winds will get as it travels over the Gulf really difficult to say any guesses.
do you have any idea what it be a 50 mile an hour storm 80 mile an hour storm 100 miles an hour storm?

[mad_as_he$$]

Groan, here we go again.....

[bert]

There is a system of marked hiways from Lake Itaska Minnesota to Venice LA known as the Great River Road. I have traveled that road that closely follows the Mississippi River as it flows from the source in Lake Itaska to as far as the road goes in Venice LA.

The Great River Road cuts through the very heart of America. The journey is seeing America at it's best. Although there are several large cities, the road allows one to visit lots and lots of smaller cities and towns. The opportunity rises to sample very local food.

It is a great trip.

(the LA image was locked up on pininterest)

[NautiNurse]

NHC discussion indicates top winds 80mph (out 48 hours).

[NautiNurse]

Good info—thanks!

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

Thanks for all you do NN..

[rodguy911]

Makes sense

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Paladin2 did some ‘tweaking’ to my favorite site for Obsessive Hurricane Watching:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-87.72,20.29,3000

[Romulus]

If you were in Venice, you were probably fishing. Venice has marinas and other facilities serving deep sea sport fishing. I was there in June; caught some fine yellowfin tuna and redfish. This storm may generate enough surge to cover the canes holding the marshes together, which are dying from an uncontrolled insect infestation. It is very serious. Hoping the storm will kill the bugs.

[NautiNurse]

Looks good

[deport]

Look at the lower right hand corner of the forecast track map.

FORECAST TRACK POSITIONS
The letters give the projected sustained winds which are included in the track.

[deport]

[blam]

Dang.

That latest track puts it right on top of me at 7:00AM Sunday morning. I've been making preparations to receive winds from the south......

[NautiNurse]

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana
to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
the Alabama/Florida border, and for the northern and western shores
of Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for metropolitan New
Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, and from west of
Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida
border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida
border to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect east of the Okaloosa/Walton
County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.7n 85.0w
About 175 Mi...280 Km SE Of Cozumel Mexico
About 165 Mi...260 Km NNE Of Isla Guanaja Honduras
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/H
Present Movement...NNW Or 340 Degrees At 21 Mph...33 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...996 Mb...29.42 Inches

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[CJ Wolf]

Thanks, I’ve often seen it posted but never knew what it was from. was it a good movie?

[Diana in Wisconsin]

We'd better secure these two, too, just to be safe!

[NautiNurse]

Figured you have been preparing for Nate--and good thing. Looks like you'll need to put your dogs to work buttoning up the house all the way around...

We've seen too many times that these storms drift east of the forecast track.

[NautiNurse]

STORM SURGE: In the United States, The combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border...4 to 7 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft

[commish]

Unless there is some shear I don't see yet or something that hinders development (longer than expected interaction with Yucatan maybe) I will venture that Nate is going to be stronger than anticipated at the moment.

The gulf waters are still very warm, and air temps are still well into the 80's every day. Fall cooldown really has not started yet, and the environment is favorable for development.

Forward speed may be a blessing as Nate is a fast moving storm and as such will have less time to intensify, still I am going to say he reaches CAT 2 by landfall at around 105-110 instead of minimal CAT 1 like original forecasts.

[blam]

I just got my first ‘Extreme Threat Alert’. “Hurricane warning this area”, on my cell phone. NWS.