The gulf waters are still very warm, and air temps are still well into the 80's every day. Fall cooldown really has not started yet, and the environment is favorable for development.
Forward speed may be a blessing as Nate is a fast moving storm and as such will have less time to intensify, still I am going to say he reaches CAT 2 by landfall at around 105-110 instead of minimal CAT 1 like original forecasts.
Let’s hope you are wrong. However, the NHC is hedging its forecast strength accordingly.