Posted on 10/05/2017 8:49:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Nate is emerging from Honduras into the Western Caribbean. Forecast models are in agreement that Nate will continue into the Gulf of Mexico. Oil companies have begun evacuations of offshore platforms.
Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, have been issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice given by local officials.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar New Orleans, LA
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Mobile, LA
Bouy Data Gulf of Mexico
What does that mean?
The track covers all stages of the storm development and degeneration. If you look at the NHC forecast track, it has a letter at each plot point. H=hurricane, S=tropical storm, D=depression. The black background for each point means the system has tropical characteristics. The D with the white background up in New England area means the storm is expected to be extra-tropical.
Actually no. If anything it will keep it more east. Fujiwara Effect.
Well, I certainly do not wish any bad weather on anyone, but
we could use some rain up here in north Georgia, the ground is parched,
and we have not seen a drop fall since Irma passed through here.
May God bless everyone.
I think this one's going to disintegrate right where it is over land before it has a chance to move back over water.
Right now Nate is in the warmest waters for strengthening, 86ºF. It is firing up convection. GOM is a bit cooler, but still can provide fuel for hurricane status moving through the center of the GOM.
Sorry to be so dense, but I'm somewhat confused by all of the map projections I've seen.
“What does that mean?”
—
That’s what the people who have seen the movie (”Take Shelter”) want to know, too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vemwuHez3gg
Try an internet search for “hurricane primer”. Zillions of resources from simple to highly complex discussions for tropical cyclone terms and definitions.
I've lived through hurricanes, know how to prepare for one, can usually read these maps/projections; however, this one is a mess as far as I'm concerned.
If you see the little letters in the track you can see it changes from “H” hurricane, to “S”, which is a tropical storm, to “D”, which is a tropical depression, as it makes its way north.
The 0500 NHC forecast track simply estimates Nate to be hurricane strength at landfall near the Eastern Tip of LA at 0100 Sunday. The next forecast point 24 hours later at 0100 Monday is a "D" over Eastern TN. This means the storm will be moving very quickly once it makes landfall and deteriorates from a low level hurricane to a tropical depression. After that, it will transition into an extra-tropical system as it reaches cooler temps.
Looks like we in eastern TN will be feeling the end of this.
A couple of weeks ago Joe Bastardi said we weren’t done got. Called the cooling in the southeast and said that sets up the gulf for more development.
got = yet
Venice, LA. It’s literally the end of the road near the tip of the Mississippi River Delta. I’ve been there. Nothing but endless flat grassy tidal wetlands. Serves as a port for offshore energy industry. There’s only one place further south, Pilottown, LA 70091. Accessible only by boat, it’s where the Mississippi river pilots embark/disembark.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilottown,_Louisiana
D is for extra tropical which means strong winds compared to an average T.S. but a lot more rain in a wider area.
Guess they expect the storm to interact with a lot of moisture in the air/hardly any shear as the thing travels within the US and out to sea in the Atlantic.
My guess is a fast-moving storm will limit the damage no telling how big it gets in the Gulf
I seem to recall some years ago (probably Katrina days) there was discussion about whether the SE tip of LA was actually land that would qualify for assigning “landfall” for a tropical system.
Nate is currently moving NNW at 14 mph.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along
the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane
conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night.
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