Update: Syria, NORKs, Chicoms, & Russkies

self | 4/10/2017 | LS

[LS]

By way of disclaimer, I have known Steve Bannon for years and we regularly communicate in rather short bursts. So my info on the "inside Team Trump" is pretty one-sided. I don't know Jared Kushner, know OF McMaster and recommended him to Team Trump (as did Victor Davis Hanson). So I know what I know, but it's a pretty limited range of insight.

1. The Syria strikes. I knew going in this would be a firestorm for Trump among his voters, especially the Ron Paul/non-interventionist backers (many of whom you see on Twitter).

I agree with many of you that the evidence was not clear that it was Assad---indeed, it could well have been ISIS. I also agree this does not help in our fight against ISIS. I further agree that regime change is dangerous on a number of levels.

That said, the strike was a multifaceted message, and unfortunately one that absolutely had to be sent, somewhere, somehow.

Recall as many of you have posted, in the past two years, the Russkies have been getting extremely provocative, doing flybys of American ships, sailing into our waters, and so on. Forget who is "responsible" for Ukraine, the fact is Ukraine unloaded its nukes cuz we promised them we would protect them via NATO. Now that promise is vanishing. Our word certainly is not good from the Ukrainian perspective.

I start Syria with Russia because at some point, somewhere, Putin had to get a message that while we want peace and want to work with him, he cannot possibly be allowed to threaten (as he already has) American ships at sea and sail in our waters. This is flat out aggression.

It can be stopped, and nipped in the bud, but how? Consider Syria a "brush back pitch" to the Russian batter. (In baseball, when the hitter takes advantage of the plate and gets too far into the pitcher's zone, the pitcher throws one high and tight to brush him back and say, "No, you have to play by the rules.")

I do believe Putin not only got this message, but was expecting it. He wanted to see if Trump was Obama The bad news is that it had to go on this long, but like any aggressor, the longer you wait, the bloodier it becomes to stop him. I think Putin got the message. Yes, he's making a lot of threats. But he now knows Trump will act when provoked and act DECISIVELY. Whether you agree with the strike or not, you can't accuse Trump of "indecision."

Further, I think the brush-back pitch worked on Iran and the NORKs. Coming as it did when Xi was at dinner (indeed, I hear he was the first one to receive the news of the attack!), it was the equivalent of Trump pulling out a Colt .45 and laying it on the table and saying, "ok, Xi, let's chat." The fact that Xi apparently gave his blessing to American responses to the NORKs--in their own back yard---suggests the meeting was a 100% success. The brush back pitch was felt in China, too.

Many here do not agree with Trump's action. Many think he was being "played." I have heard (haven't verified it) that the "vote" to fire the missiles was unanimous among the NatSec team, including Bannon. He of course would never confirm or deny, nor would I ask. But what we have from "fake" news is one story that it was Kush v Bannon, another that it was Kush/Bannon v Mattis, and a third that it was everyone agreeing.

For the reasons I've outlined above NOT particularly relating to Syria, I believe the latter. Further, this was an opportunity to throw the brush-back pitch without civilian casualties and without a bunch of dead bodies being hauled out of a mosque. In other words, if Team Trump was looking for the "perfect" place to send a message, gas or no gas, this was it.

2. "Chaos/Turmoil inside Team Trump" Lately the Twitter people have been going nuts against Kushner thinking he is engaging in a war on Bannon. First, if you look at the picture of the "bunker" with everyone during the strike, the two people closest to Trump are Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon, right behind him. Kush is one person removed. Small things. Second, Bannon himself told me three nights ago, "I ain't goin' anywhere." I'm pretty sure that means DT said so, too. We keep missing this and missing this, but REGULARLY Team Trump throws out a piece of media "cheese" into the maze and the media rats chase it while Team Trump governs. I don't know if the Kush/Bannon "clash" is real or just cheese, but it would not surprise me if the two guys don't go get a beer every night and laugh.

Trump's management style is much like Lincoln's: get a bunch of top, smart people who have different ideas, let them fight, come to a decision that may favor one, the other, or even neither. Don't forget businessmen do not hesitate to drop non-producers. Trump fired Lewandowski, Manafort, and his OWN BROTHER (as did Thomas Watson, Jr. at IBM!) If anyone thinks he won't dump Kush for good reason, think again. Ditto Bannon.

3. McMaster. I vouched for McMaster as did Victor Davis Hanson. McMaster is one of the few people in the Pentagon with actual hands-on success at forming alliances with Muslims against other Muslims. He was a rebel throughout the Iraq war, which kept him from being promoted. He's exactly the type of outside-the-box thinker you want. I'm NOT concerned about his early comments on "radicals" being a minority. Folks, you will not find any commanders in the field, anywhere, saying all Muslims are terrorists. Won't happen, cuz they need locals as interpreters and most of the time as allies. Maybe personally they have different thoughts, but they cannot express those in a combat zone. I think McM's comments were typical of that battlefield thinking.

Bannon's removal from the NSC planning group was predicted in Trump's own plans early on. Bannon was there to de-politicize it, and he has, and he still has top clearance, as you've all seen. I could be wrong, but of all the things to worry about, McM ain't one of them.

Finally, we are in a VERY dangerous position due to Obama. If anyone thinks we could just retreat to our borders, it's way too late for that. The NORK nut could wipe out the entire west coast with a single EMP bomb over the north Pacific. Many here would say "yay," but of course that's crazy. The entire US would be set back massively, Japan would be wiped out and we'd have to retaliate big time. (I do think it's time we reconsider assassination as a policy). Zero let the Russkies run wild. We can nudge them back into their stall, but to act like they aren't out would be a mistake. And we still have to deal with Iran.

None of this is easy, and no one will agree with any one policy. Trump was handed an absolute bag of excrement in foreign policy. I think he is trying to avoid not just one, but three wars, and we all better hope the "brush back pitch" was heeded.

[silverleaf]

” One Second After’
Book- and movie is on YouTube

[eyedigress]

The Folks on FR are amazing.

You have your everyday ordinary living and then you have a Ranger, or a Seal or a Green Beret.

I love this place.

Yes, I forgive you Marines coming in and blowing up my Markers on the Luke Air Force Range.

Bitches!

[arthurus]

Decapitating Nork probably involves neutralizing more than Kim. All his male progeny have to be killed or firmly sequestered, too. The Kims are a classic usurper dynasty, paranoid and violent and the sons will continue the line.

[dynoman]

watch;

Special Middle East report on the chemical attacks in Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsBchlbdJdc

[txhurl]

It really torques me that W shrieked about the Axis of Evil, but was silent about the guy he *knew* would succeed him elevating that axis with every move he made.

[sargon]

I can live with all this. Fine. Next...

[Thumper1960]

Aren't they, though?

Tell me, be honest......have you ever learned so much?

I admit that I have, and do.

[Garth Tater]

Because photos are never staged and people who don’t want to be convinced always are if you tell them as you are committing the action..

Of course photos are staged as you put it. But if President Trump can't be trusted to show us the true evidence then it is time to call it quits and head to the hills. As it is, we've been shown no evidence of an actual sarin gas attack. No lab tests of soil from the scene. No autopsies conducted by trusted medical facilities. Nothing but the words, "Trust us, it was Assad."

And on the other side of the ledger there are some questions concerning the original story, for example, the pictures of the dead children show rosie cheeked children laying there dead - but sarin kills by flooding the lungs with fluids. Asphyxiated victims are blue. Look at the pictures of Saddam's sarin attack victims, they are NOTHING at all like the pictures of those dead children in Syria.

Am I saying Trump lied to us? No. Am I saying it is possible Trump was lied to and repeated the lie to us? Yes.

[dynoman]

[Kenny]

Thanks, that’s the best explanation I’ve seen of everything. Even feel somewhat better about McMaster though I get the feeling he’s a neocon at heart, we’ll see.

[bigbob]

And remember, the great Northeast power blackout of 2003 started when an overheated power line near Cleveland touched a tree branch and ended up affecting 50 million people. The point is that much critical infrastructure is delicately balanced and even a small, non-optimized EMP attack would not just cause protective trip-outs that had to be restarted (which took 30 hours in 2003) but would permanently damage some of that equipment - at random points and in ways that would take weeks or months to troubleshoot and repair.

Meanwhile, contemplate the scenario without banking transactions, credit cards ATMs EBT cards...

[Qiviut]

Still on the “Trump Train” & plan on staying there. He has saved the country from certain destruction under Hillary & I am grateful. The world’s bad guys need to know that there is still a “big stick” behind the words of a US President - it’s unfortunate that due to the coward/traitor Obama, Trump had to prove it still existed and he could and would use it by actually doing so. I’ll not abandon him for that.

[dynoman]

Can we believe Israel? They say they have been watching this specific Syrian pilot for years.

Special Middle East report on the chemical attacks in Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsBchlbdJdc

CNN Syrian Gas Attack Survivor Interview (Must watch!)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3542325/posts

[mrsmith]

Might keep one alive to ‘rule’ as a puppet.

[crz]

You mentioned you are an area 51 nut. I used to have a retired engineer down the road that personally watched the Phoenix lights. He saw the “one” that flew right smack over his house and he figured was over 500 feet wide.

Would not talk about it much other than I got him to one night after a few under the belt.

I knew some of Kelly Johnsons relatives since I liver near where he was from. Kelly had his fingers in the Kingfisher which was mach 4,3 capable in around 1951 or so. They got things now that would scare the hell out of everyone.

[eyedigress]

I cannot say much.

Obama’s FBI gave me a visit over that shit.

[dynoman]

Can we believe Israel? They say they have been watching this specific Syrian pilot for years.

Special Middle East report on the chemical attacks in Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsBchlbdJdc

[little jeremiah]

Including taking the side of Ukraine to aggravate Putin and empower the Nazis and oligarchs in Uk.

[mrsmith]

Good stuff.

I’ve no doubt that the chem attack that Russia didn’t want from the base with Russians on it has ample verification.

[eyedigress]

That one came down from Prescott and passed over the city and Mesa.

I was in Casa Grande at the time. It was real. Nuff said.