Posted on 11/06/2016 7:37:21 AM PST by LS
First, thanks to JimRob for a site that lets us present not only articles and news, but opinion pieces. (I'll be kicking in another $100 here in a few minutes).
Now, on to business.
Freepers Ravi and SpeedyinTexas have done a bang-up job tracking registrations and early votes in IA, FL, and NC. My unnamed friends in Dayton, OH have been very good about giving me inside data from OH.
Some time ago I predicted Trump would win OH, FL, IA, and NC. I think that's a given now. Pollster Richard Baris told him that Cankles' people privately told him NC was "gone." Yes, she's still in OH and FL, but I think these are more desperation efforts as she is literally now just one small state from being completely unable to win. NV, CO, MI, MN, VA, PA, WI, or any combo of those pretty much seals her doom, but of course we want them ALL.
Baris also confirmed today that his final weekend polling shows FL out of reach for her---as I said. My guys see it taking a miracle for her to win OH.
The early voting (EV) in NV is troubling in that Ds have about a 40,000 advantage---but overall it is down from 56% in 2012 to 52%, and the main thing (as in most of these states) is that we do not know how "independents" especially will vote. Most polls show Trump anywhere from 7 to 20 points up with indies. I tend to use about 10% as a yardstick. With that, and with just a small D crossover in NV, Trump will win there.
We have two polls that show antiTrump Rs/antiHillary Ds shaking out at between +5 Trump and +7 Trump. If that's the case, Trump would win PA, MI, VA, and probably MN.
A week ago, as some of you know, I got internals from Team Trump, with whom I've been in very close contact for two months. This comes from the very top. Those internals showed VERY close races in eight states, including MI, NM, PA, VA, CT, RI, OR, WI. All were very much within "turnout margin." Trump was up in some, down just 1-2 in others. I do not have an update on any of these except yesterday Trump's communications director said they were up in NM. This confirmed a report earlier in the week by Kellyanne Conway who said they were "tied" in NM and MI.
I've spoken with some R strategists in MI. This is very winnable and Trump is doing fantastic in Macomb Co., up double digits. He's down just single digits in Oakland. If Oakland can just be "managed," the north/west vote will outperform Wayne. Currently absentees from Wayne way off (-12%) so MI is looking very good. Again, apply the D/R crossover # above, and MI is quite possibly Trump's. This GOP source said that at the Macomb rally he'd "never seen so many blue collar Ds at a Republican rally."
PA appears tighter. Insiders say that Trump is up huge all over the state except Philly---even in Pitt---but the black vote in Philly is, based on performance everywhere else, likely to be down.
Currently in FL black vote is off 3, NC off by 4-6. These are astounding #s and mean that in FL Cankles will lose over 110,000 votes off Obama's total right there; in NC, closer to 200,000; and nationwide close to 1 million. Moreover, white votes are up everywhere, anywhere from 3-4% from 2012. Just to put that in perspective, the "Latino surge" in FL would have to be 40% HIGHER just to offset the white increase.
All these portend a very tight race in PA, VA, and possibly even WI. However, Team Trump pulled DT out of WI in favor of MN, where their internals show a very, very close race. As you know, he is up 12% in MN CD8, which no Republican has won.
If I had to guess, I'd say Trump wins MI, PA too close to call, we lose WI. Given the horrible polling record of VA, and the latest poll showing Trump +3 there, I have to think Trump also wins VA. The Nova districts are down (six of them) an average of 35% each, while southern/western VA (7 districts) were all up quite a bit in early voting. But VA doesn't do D/R ballots, so we have no way to really count by registration---which in large part is why polling there is so tough to confirm.
I think Trump has NM in a squeaker. CO too unpredictable to call. Rs lead early voting, but they led bigger in 2012 and lost. However, pot was on the ballot then, and isn't now. Moreover, most polls show "da yuts" are off by the same % as blacks, about -3%. Again, this is huge in places like CO. I can't call CO or NV now. There are indicators they could go either way.
NH was not on the "internals" list I saw, but four polls since then give Trump the lead there. I think it's likely in Trump's column, along with ME CD2.
Now, a few non-number/polling items. Slate has announced it will do "exit polling" reports all day on election day.
Of course, what this means is they will try to depress GOP turnout with false stories. REMEMBER 2004, when Drudge was running false exit polls and I told you at 4:00 pm after I did a key "poll flushing" at a battleground precinct that Bush won the election? THEY WILL LIE. You cannot get depressed about "exit lies."
A better barometer is obviously the election night calls. My prediction here is that they will DELIBERATELY delay any call for Trump until the last possible moment. In 2004, as Bill Sammon showed in his book "At Any Cost," the networks delayed all calls of Bush states up to FIVE TIMES as long as they called Gore states, when Bush had up to FIVE TIMES the margin of lead. In other words, if Bush was winning by 5 points in GA, they delayed it for an hour, while calling a Gore state with under 1% within 20 minutes.
THIS WILL HAPPEN. Probably the best indicator of a great Trump night is if, the minute after the polls close, they have NOT called VA, PA, and NH for Cankles. If these go 20 minutes with no call, Trump has likely won the election.
I remain confident, based on the USC Poll and PPD poll that Trump will win with about a 4-5% pop vote margin, will top 60m votes. I still think 300-320 EVs are entirely within reach.
If Cankles wins, we have all had the sad fortune of witnessing the last days of the greatest republic on earth.
Never discount the Zombie vote...
The Secretary of State, Katherine Harris, certified the election xx days following the presidential election as required by FL law.
You know the rest of that story.
But then the Bushes totally threw Katherine under the bus and left her to be demonized and did not support her in her run for elective office.
LS—Any word or internals about Vigo County, IN? That’s the 100% right predictor in Indiana.
I’m making a contribution and crediting it to your account for this superb vanity.
“But then the Bushes totally threw Katherine under the bus and left her to be demonized and did not support her in her run for elective office.”
At least they let her live.
The Bushes were accomplices in the murder of Terri Schindler Schiavo.
Necessary? What does that mean?
African American voters are not turning out for Hillary.
Will black lives still matter after the election?
In PA, my house has been visited three times so far by Dem canvassers. They are spending a LOT of effort to try to get every vote they can. This is not a sign of confidence.
Ive counted 4 times, and twice yesterday in Pittsburgh...going to see the Donald tonight at the airport!
They’ve been lying about everything else, why not polls?
Thanks for all your great analysis...IF Oregon goes TRUMP the world is changing!!!! (So much possible fraud here)
Trump promised to accept the results of the election... if he wins. I’d kind of like to see him contest them even if he DOES win. To get AT these muffuggahs.
I’m telling right now I live in West central Ma. And Trump voters are like 5-1.
It reminds me when scott Brown won the Senate.
But he won a special election in the middle of winter.
“I think there are massive numbers of Trump voters who deliberately stayed away from the early voting and absentee voter methods and you’re going to see TRUMP lines that Hillary never dreamed of”
I agree. I was at the Trump rally in Tampa yesterday and heard many, many people (mostly seniors) saying they would never early vote because they have always voted on election day and would continue doing so.
I went and early voted for Trump today. So did my husband, who as of a week ago, wasn’t sure he would vote for Trump. We took two of our neighbors to early voting (both voting for Trump) who are going to be out of town next week and were just going to not vote.
Really? I heard she was getting 114% of the WW l and CW vets.
"The voters had a temper tantrum last week."
Final result will be President Trump with 52.5% and Corrupt Clinton at 42.5% of popular vote and Trump with 312 EV.
If Kasich and Cruz don’t need to honor their pledge to support Trump then all rules are off.
CBS signed off the night after the ‘04 election still showing Ohio too close to call.
Doesn’t jibe: if Trump gets 10% of vote he would get 340-350 EVs. 4%= about 300-320.
We’ll see. Trump gets more votes in Hillary states would drive his numbers up without giving him the EV’s.
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