Posted on 11/05/2016 11:12:31 AM PDT by dp0622
http://www.ktvn.com/story/33617755/new-poll-shows-republican-surge-in-nevada
Just posting to counter the thread some troll punk put up about NV. I think it was pulled.
Trump is going to win and trolls are going to cry like the b.tches they are.
Allahpundit is a NeverTrumper IIRC. He’s been called out for it on Instanpundit, IIRC...regular posters to Instapundit have also called out Stephen Green (Vodkapundit) and Ed Driscoll as being Debbie Downers.
Virginia is now a statist hell hole.
Wow. This whole country needs savings and the 2nd amendment shouldn’t even BE a STATE issue.
Trump wins, the power should be taken away from the states.
The ONE thing they shouldn’t have control over is the one thing they have the most over.
Cicatrizatic said...
The media is declaring victory for Hillary in Nevada based on early vote numbers. As usual, they are ignoring the above-mentioned variables.
I just ran the numbers. 767,000 Nevadans have voted so far. Among the ballots returned: 42% Democrat, 37% Republican, 21% Independent.
To allocate the votes to specific candidates, I averaged the cross-tabs on Democrats, Republicans, and Independents from the last 3 Nevada polls. I did not include the previous poll before that (Emerson) as it was taken 10 days ago. The last 3 polls are all within the last week.
Based on the last 3 Nevada polls, the cross-tabs are:
Democrats: 82% Clinton, 14% Trump
Republicans: 85% Trump, 9% Clinton
Independents: 46% Trump, 34% Clinton
As you can see, Trump has a significant cross-over advantage and handily wins Independents.
Applying these cross-tabs to the early vote numbers, you get:
Trump - 360,413 votes Clinton - 344,459 votes
That puts Trump at a 2% lead.
Obviously this is all contingent on the poll cross-tabs being accurate. But based on the available data, Trump is likely narrowly winning Nevada.
Not sure I’m buying it. Hispanics are out in NV in droves. Huge numbers. Not sure where they are all coming from.
What is unknown is the degree and amount of the fraud that is occurring or about to occur.
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The constitution takes all power to regulate firearms away from all government.
Scalia’s assassination gave it back!
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Maybe so — but that doesn’t mean it’s more likely than PA or MI to be a Clinton state.
Net gain for Trump.
Sorry, no source -- but I bet you can Google a site that will give you any values you want.
Vote as if the future of the country depends upon it......because it DOES!
Well Trump includes it his own electoral map to get to 270 so it’s gonna be a long night if that’s the case.
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Michigan is hurting severely for high paying jobs.
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You’re right. And I believe more and more that they killed him. He was overweight but still went on safaris and everything else. He dies of a heart attack while sleeping? With a pillow over his head.
SOBs.
PA and Michigan are DEFINITELY stronger for Trump than Virginia. I don’t fully trust the two polls we saw. Virginia has just been flooded with federal employees. It isnt an industrial state.
On the Michigan Pennsylvania split: I am basing this largely on the turnout operations in each state. Michigan’s democratic machine has decayed with Detroit. Absentee ballots for Detroit this time in 2012 were 12.5% higher than they are at present. We’ve seen similar polls out of both states calling the race a tie, but I’d bank more on an upset in Michigan than in Pennsylvania, owing to organization and Detroit performing worse than Philly for dems.
I don't know how accurate these figures are, and I've said for months that party affiliation is not really relevant in this unusual election.
**A new CNN/ORC poll shows Republicans gaining a lot of momentum in the battle ground Silver State.**
TTTT!
I understand, but most places outside of the D.C. Beltway are. New Jersey is a disaster, but that doesn’t make it a Trump state.
And here’s another thing: would we be talking about Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia if a Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, or Ted Cruz was on top of the ticket?
No - they’d just waltz into election day, get their 190 electoral votes, and go back to their safe desk jobs.
The old way of doing things is over.
North Carolina is solid Trump. Period.<> Florida is solid Trump: last time, early voting (absentee + in person) gave I think almost 200,000 vote lead for the Dems; but this year with 3 days after today for early voting as of yesterday, the GOP was up by almost 3,000.
And national attention is focused on the voter fraud (sworn eyewitness affidavits) in Broward county.
Pennsylvania -- what does it tell you that Monday night, Bill and Hillary and Chelsea and Barack and Michelle, are ALL going to be in Philadelphia?
(Desperation.)
Michigan -- Drudge said tied as of yesterday. Couldn't find internals on the polls.
Colorado -- too close to call.
Nevada -- too close to call.
Virginia, -- too close to call.
But Trump is appearing in MINNESOTA (Minneapolis-St.Paul International Airport, in the Sun Country hangar) tomorrow. I suggest he is not as desperate as you make out, if he is showing up at the last minute, in a state even Reagan lost.
21% independents is the key here, Trump wins indies handily (I’m one of them), also early voting is skewed heavily to Vegas - Vegas is democrat and heavy with 1/3 Hispanic and 12% Asian. The rest of the state, which votes more heavily day of, is as conservative as anywhere you can think of - as conservative as Wyoming. I wouldnt start crying yet, it will be close but the 5% margin in early voting is probably not enough for the Tyrant Queen.
Did you tell Allahpundit. “Not good. Pray it reverses”?
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