Clinton's Lead Narrows to 4 Points, Wider Majority Expects Her to Win (POLL)

ABC News/Washington Compost ^ | 10/28/2016 | ABC News/Washington Compost

[usafa92]

Presidential preferences have narrowed in the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll -- but not expectations of the outcome.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters polled say they expect Hillary Clinton to win the election, essentially the same was it was in early September. That includes nearly all of her own supporters and a fifth of Donald Trump’s.

There are vast divisions, as well, on the question of vote fraud: More than nine in 10 Clinton supporters think votes nationally will be counted accurately; just 50 percent of Trump’s agree. And 70 percent of Trump backers think voter fraud is common. A mere 11 percent of Clinton’s say the same.

Vote preferences, for their part, show the narrowest division in the tracking poll to date, with 48 of likely voters polled for Clinton, 44 percent for Trump. Trump’s gained 6 points since the start of tracking, while Clinton’s -2 (not a significant change). This reflects slight shifts in intended turnout and recent consolidation for Trump in his party.

[usafa92]

Well, well, well. Down to 4. Could it be the 12 points was total BS?? According to ABC, the 8 point Trump gain represents a "slight" shift.

[UKrepublican]

Laugable isnt it.

[ScaniaBoy]

If it had been the other way, Trump’s lead decreasing by 8 points in a week it had been “panic in Trump camp”, “opinion deluge”, “lead crashes” etc etc.

[From The Deer Stand]

Trump is going to win in a landslide. The Hillary camp knows this and is in total panic mode.

[Gaffer]

It really is getting tiresome to click on these MSM links and risk getting an ideological STD to have to confirm they think Democrats will show up in numbers that reflect 10% more than Republicans and with ‘independents’ almost equaling the Republicans.......

[dowcaet]

The new media narrative is that Hillary’s lead is slipping, but she’s still gonna win. If that doesn’t signify the media’s panic I don’t know what else does.

[rktman]

“Whay am I not 50 points ahead you might ask.” Uh, purty obvious to most of us. We already know the polls are a crock, even at you +6. Better get to the tailor to have that orange tunic fitted.

[theyalllie]

This was Oct. 23-26 poll according to the report. With Trump trending up, HC down. Weighting questionable also, but really no one knows turnout until it happens. Overall, a very scary poll for Dems. Trump is peaking and she is losing all excitement .... and is hiding ala Romney in 2012, trying to run out the clock. 11 days is way too long to run out.

[runfree]

The best part is that the sample breakdown was +9 for democrats in this poll and they still could only get a 4 point lead...

[ml/nj]

Random poll taken among on-air reporters for TV stations across the nation.

ML/NJ

[vladimir998]

So they say her lead is narrowing but they must say a majority expect her to win. Reporters are scum.

[2111USMC]

This ABC News/Washington poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 23-26, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,109 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-28-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

D+9 3 Point MOE

I fart in their general direction.

[BlueStateRightist]

Correct. Breakdown in this poll is 37-28-29, D-R-I. D+9.

[TTFlyer]

This must be true, Fox News had Tokyo Rove and his Whiteboard on showing Trump can’t win, and Fox Business had Dana PeRino on playing with a full deck of “Woman Cards.”

[rb22982]

Actually, to get D+8, Dems would have to show up in roughly 25% more than Reps (38%D / 30%R = 27% more Ds than Rs). Obama got +6 in 2012 with massive black turnout. Early black vote (eg: ~-30% in NC) is way down vs 2012.

[Sooth2222]

"Methodology

"This ABC News/Washington poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 23-26, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,109 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-28-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

"Q5 was asked Oct. 25-26 among 649 likely voters; those results have a 4-point error margin. Q6-7 were asked Oct. 24-26 among 961 likely voters; those results have a 3.5-point error margin.

D voters are going to have a nine point advantage over R voters? On election day? Seriously?

[rb22982]

Forecasting a 33% higher D turnout (D+9) than R when Obama got +19% (D+6) in 2012 with a massive black vote seems ridiculously optimistic for Dem turnout unless they are having good polling #s among the dead.

[mewzilla]

This also assumes that all Dems will be voting for Clinton.

[VRWC For Truth]

Shove that whiteboard up Tokyo Rove’s fat azz. His 15 minutes were up decades ago. Pig vomit ...

[TTFlyer]

Go on over to Breitbart and check Mark Levin’s epic rant about Fox News, Megyn Kelly, and Shemp Smith. Awesome. I’ll have to forgive Mark and become a listener again if he keeps it up.