"This ABC News/Washington poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 23-26, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,109 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-28-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
"Q5 was asked Oct. 25-26 among 649 likely voters; those results have a 4-point error margin. Q6-7 were asked Oct. 24-26 among 961 likely voters; those results have a 3.5-point error margin.
D voters are going to have a nine point advantage over R voters? On election day? Seriously?
This also assumes that all Dems will be voting for Clinton.
The spike in third party voting was for Perot and created a higher overall turnout [approx 105M]. The Not Voting graph spiked down that year implying that Perot brought new voters into the process rather than taking from Clinton and Bush. Trump brings much of the traditional R vote plus many non-voters = monster vote???
What stands out on this graph to me is the reminder that there are some 90 million eligible voters that have not been inspired to vote for President.
We keep hearing about the so called monster vote out there under the radar. If 10% of that demo show up and go 70/30 Trump, it’s a landslide.
Fun fact: Hussein is first to seize power another four years with FEWER votes than the previous cycle.
From that chart it appears that Clinton was successful in keeping R vote extra low during his 92 and 96 victories. Was this through voter supression or actually losing R ballots? We may never know.