Posted on 10/25/2016 8:50:14 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
It is a fact that fewer people answer pollsters questions than ever before. More than this, the one data point that is NEVER reported is a poll’s response rate. There is good reason for this omission.
Earlier this year, the Pew Research firm reported that since the late 1990s the rate of response to pollsters requests for a few minutes to answer their questions has fallen from just under 40% to around 9%.
This means that to get even 1000 responses, given some technical problems they must make about 11000 calls and that says nothing about the demographic breakdowns they want. This pushes the number of calls up dramatically.
Yes they use machines; and yes that cuts down the time and cost of conducting these surveys; but these factors do point to a kind of “devil’s workshop” for dishonest news outlets that conduct these polls.
At the beginning of the year when this article about Pew’s findings was written, we didn’t KNOW what we KNOW about the truth of poll manipulation that we KNOW today.
Wikileaks emails have proved Democrats rig polls. In the last few days wiki leaks proved that John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign manager, referenced a company named Atlas while discussed how they could use over/under sampling, skipping certain groups altogether and skipping certain sections of the country to shape the results of a poll.
Does it seem so much of a stretch that these polls will concentrate on calling favorable groups? A ridiculous Arizona poll showing Hilary Clinton with a small lead also showed the polling company used double the number of Democrats and double the number of college graduates to get the results it wanted.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/media-corruption-hillary-5-points-az-poll-interviewed-nearly-twice-many-democrats-republicans/
So if, on the one hand, the task of actually getting people to answer pollsters has become so difficult; and on the other hand making note of who answers with the kind of responses pollsters want to hear has become so easy, why would these dishonest people not cheat?
Commenting on the significance of the “non- response” rate the Pew representative said "less-educated people and people of color are less likely to participate in polls, and people who aren’t politically active are less likely to answer political surveys.”
He continued saying he concluded that “most of these biases can be corrected through demographic weighting of the sort that is nearly universally used by pollsters.”
Since a substantial portion of Trump’s support is from less-educated, never voters or returning voters and we now KNOW polls are fixed, we must ask how will they “correct” these numbers?
He closed by saying, “Strangely, for some reason that no one really understands, well-done probability samples seem to have retained their representative character despite the meager response rate."
"No one really understands?” Let’s make that “No one really UNDERSTOOD.”
Another polling company executive said, “While the issue [of low response to pollsters] remains a looming problem for the polling industry, there’s little evidence that it had much of an impact on the latest high-profile polling miss — the Iowa Republican caucus. Instead, data suggests much of the blame likely rests on inaccurate assumptions of who would turn out to vote, and a “seismic shift” in opinion during the final days of the campaign. While pollsters and forecasters missed the outcome, many warned in advance that the results would be especially hard to predict.”
Amen.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polling-when-people-dont-answer-phones_us_56b3b06ee4b04f9b57d8e014
...Americans don’t answer surveys so where does poll data come from?....
The DNC
Podesta.
Pray America wakes
Ask a proctologist with a flashlight to check with the pollsters.
I received an automated poll call last night. When I answered “press 1 for Trump”, I pressed 1, and the call hang up. Probably makes it easier to get the results they want.
I worked for DnB before they quit investigating businesses and started using their enormous data base to “predict” credit worthiness. Over time, the data became less and less accurate. Garbage in . . .
Regardless of how real a call sounds, if I detect the least delay in in I say “f@ck you and your computer.”
For real people, I tolerate ONE question and ONE question only and I tell them they’d better make it count because if they want my opinion, one question is all that’s needed. The rest of this 3-7 minute hoop jumping questions is nothing but exploitation, very likely with push-poll implications designed to fake real opinion.
ONE QUESTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for that anecdote.
The polls don’t worry me. Vote fraud does.
Memes:
Voodoo polling
Polling malpractice
Even tho I’m on the ‘don’t call list’, the phone is ringing constantly. I just don’t answer anymore unless a voice comes on that I recognize — or look at the incoming number.
Sometimes I call a number back just to hear who answers, but most of the time, no one is there.
Spam calls have made a mess of our phone system and this affects honest poll callers.(are there honest phone callers?)
good post
We Freepers complain about the inaccuracy of the polls but we are some of the biggest offenders of ignoring pollsters. Me included.
For presidential elections, I tell people “If you don’t vote, you can’t complain”. It kind of applies to the polls too.
Why even bother to talk to real people? Call 10 phones and then write down the info you want.
In 2 weeks we can set off the political equivalent of a neutron bomb on D.C.’s ruling elites.
Spam calls have made a mess of our phone system and this affects honest poll callers.(are there honest phone callers?)
Hadn’t thought of that, but the shear volume of junk calls has likely affected the rate at which people will even pickup on a phone call they don’t recognize. That, and of course caller-ID.
Americans don’t answer surveys so where does poll data come from?............From their rear ends.................
I am polled repeatedly every election cycle. I don’t know anybody else who has ever been polled. They poll the same people (who answer the phone) over and over again.
“He continued saying he concluded that “most of these biases can be corrected through demographic weighting of the sort that is nearly universally used by pollsters.””
Nonsense. Demographic weighting assumes you already know how every demographic is going to vote, and if that is true, there would be no need for polls in the first place. It’s just a method to fudge bad results to make them less obviously bad. It may be harmless in very small doses, but if the current method makes it a mandatory part of the process, then the current method is fundamentally flawed.
I do not trust polls.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.