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Trump Surges In Poll
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll ^ | SEP 30, 2016 | ARMAND EMAMDJOMEH and DAVID LAUTER

Posted on 09/30/2016 1:16:08 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler

Trump 47.3 Clinton 41.7

(Excerpt) Read more at graphics.latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; daybreak; elections; hillary; poll; polls; surge; trump; trumpbump; trumplandslidecoming
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To: Voluntaryist

Would that turnout graphic indicate an R+1 turnout?

If so that is huge news


41 posted on 09/30/2016 3:00:16 AM PDT by Fai Mao (PIAPS for Prison 2016)
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To: monkeyshine

rofl! in that neighborhood? that would help a lot!


42 posted on 09/30/2016 3:05:04 AM PDT by dp0622 (IThe only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: monkeyshine

yes


43 posted on 09/30/2016 3:05:14 AM PDT by dp0622 (IThe only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: Jeff Chandler
I honestly believe that this crap Hillary and the media are shoveling 24/7 about some comment Trump made about that porn-star / beauty contestant is backfiring big time. I did an impromptu poll of my daughters female college friends yesterday (not all Trump supporters by any means, most were for Bernie in the primary) and every single one of them didn't care in the least about his “Miss Piggy” comment, some even found them funny, but all were offended that Hillary thought women were going to come running to her because of it, as one girl said, “I care about the issues, Hillary isn't running on what she stands for but that Trump said something bad. I'm suppose to vote for her just because Trump called someone Miss Piggy? What a dope!”
44 posted on 09/30/2016 3:05:28 AM PDT by apillar
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To: AndyTheBear

that’s funny. Complain about both. In manhattan i was in a similar situation when bush II was pres.

But they liked whomever was running against him, as long as they were breathing :)


45 posted on 09/30/2016 3:06:39 AM PDT by dp0622 (IThe only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: apillar

I just noticed that Realclearpolitics.com shortchanged Trump, they have him at +5 today up 1 from yesterday, but (Trump 47.3 Clinton 41.7) is +5.6 which should be rounded up to 6 not down to 5. Maybe I’m nitpicking, buy I want every advantage we can get....


46 posted on 09/30/2016 3:14:48 AM PDT by apillar
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To: abb

I worked the graveyard shift for years. Very few suits.


47 posted on 09/30/2016 3:22:29 AM PDT by Ken H (Best election ever!)
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To: Jeff Chandler

yea, Jesus ok, Trump set us free?...good start though


48 posted on 09/30/2016 3:26:28 AM PDT by aces ( Islam is the religion of the dead, Got Jesus?)
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To: Jeff Chandler

yea, Jesus ok, Trump set us free?...good start though


49 posted on 09/30/2016 3:26:31 AM PDT by aces ( Islam is the religion of the dead, Got Jesus?)
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To: dp0622

Hi dp0622....you have a FReepMail.....regards.


50 posted on 09/30/2016 3:27:35 AM PDT by spokeshave (In the Thatch Weave,..Trump's Wing Man is Truth.rc)
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To: Voluntaryist

The scale in this chart is so bizarre—it is straight out of that old classic: “How to lie with statistics”.

Small moves are small moves—sticking them on a big graph is not helpful.


51 posted on 09/30/2016 3:28:08 AM PDT by cgbg (Warning: This post has not been fact-checked by the Democratic National Committee.)
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To: apillar

I truly think he needs to be 12 ahead in the polls and 17 ahead in reality to overcome the cheating.


52 posted on 09/30/2016 3:29:27 AM PDT by Ingtar
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To: dp0622
you have to figure, monday was too late to poll after debates, so this includes Tues, Wed and Thurs.

These numbers are putting lie to CNN and a few others who said it was a loss for Trump.

53 posted on 09/30/2016 3:32:19 AM PDT by Ken H (Best election ever!)
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To: Jeff Chandler
I am more than a passing acquaintance with a well known celebrity (that is all anyone is going to get from me). This person is likable enough but has drunk the anti-Trump Koop-Aid and is spewing hate about him constantly. It's like this person is addicted to hate for Trump.

I like this person. But I'm looking forward to seeing his/her/its head explode on election night when Hillary goes down. Along with their many celebrity friends.

54 posted on 09/30/2016 3:44:58 AM PDT by Ciaphas Cain
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To: Ciaphas Cain

Kool-Aid I mean. Darn smartphone buttons!!


55 posted on 09/30/2016 3:45:52 AM PDT by Ciaphas Cain
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To: dp0622

:)


56 posted on 09/30/2016 3:55:26 AM PDT by combat_boots (MSM: We lie to you sheep at the slaughterhouse to keep you calm during slaughter)
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To: Fai Mao
-- Would that turnout graphic indicate an R+1 turnout? --

No. It is a measure of enthusiasm only, for people voting for each candidate. The poll contains no information relating to party affiliation.

Supposedly, in reality, the group of voters that is neither D nor R is about a third, so the below produces a nonsense statistic. Garbage in, garbage out.

If all the Trump voters are GOP, and all the Crooked voters are DEM, just use the "final outcome" graph as a proxy for party turnout. That result is 47.3-41.7 in Trump favor, giving R+6 of the entire 7 day sample.

"N" for the past 7 day sample is 2560. 47.3% of those to Trump (1211), and 41.7% to Crooked (1068). That is 2279 total, by the way, leaving 281 or 11% either not voting, or voting for somebody else.

57 posted on 09/30/2016 4:01:50 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: apillar

Polls that underestimate Trump’s strength work in our favor. The Crook supporters get complacent and overconfident, and thus their turnout likely will suppressed. From this perspective, I welcome the phony polls showing her having strength.


58 posted on 09/30/2016 4:08:05 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist (Government is best which governs least.)
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To: dp0622

I’ve learned to never tell the dispatcher how to do their job.
Pays to keep in their good graces.


59 posted on 09/30/2016 4:32:46 AM PDT by kanawa (The 1st job of a 'community organizer' is to disorganize the community)
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To: Jeff Chandler

What is the MOE in this poll? I could not find it at the source.


60 posted on 09/30/2016 4:36:24 AM PDT by Baldwin77 (They hated Reagan too ! TRUMP TOUGH - AMERICA STRONG)
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