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To: Voluntaryist

Would that turnout graphic indicate an R+1 turnout?

If so that is huge news


41 posted on 09/30/2016 3:00:16 AM PDT by Fai Mao (PIAPS for Prison 2016)
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To: Fai Mao
-- Would that turnout graphic indicate an R+1 turnout? --

No. It is a measure of enthusiasm only, for people voting for each candidate. The poll contains no information relating to party affiliation.

Supposedly, in reality, the group of voters that is neither D nor R is about a third, so the below produces a nonsense statistic. Garbage in, garbage out.

If all the Trump voters are GOP, and all the Crooked voters are DEM, just use the "final outcome" graph as a proxy for party turnout. That result is 47.3-41.7 in Trump favor, giving R+6 of the entire 7 day sample.

"N" for the past 7 day sample is 2560. 47.3% of those to Trump (1211), and 41.7% to Crooked (1068). That is 2279 total, by the way, leaving 281 or 11% either not voting, or voting for somebody else.

57 posted on 09/30/2016 4:01:50 AM PDT by Cboldt
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