THE USC DORNSIFE / LA TIMES "DAYBREAK" POLL (T-45, C-43)

USC Dornsfife ^ | 8/21/16 | USC Dornsife

[tatown]

Link Only

[dp0622]

There were a lot of idiots then too and Reagan won :)

Trump is the best candidate since Reagan AND social media DIDN’T exist, nor did WIKILEAKS!

Those are hugh and serie changes.

[Cboldt]

-- There were a lot of idiots then too and Reagan won :) --

Bigtime. And Carter was just incompetent, not both incompetent and fundamentally dishonest.

-- Trump is the best candidate since Reagan AND social media DIDN'T exist, nor did WIKILEAKS! --

Really good points. Many of the newly minted idiots are following social media instead of the press ... but the press does hit pretty hard on social media too, and people choose to read what confirms their bias, regardless of where they get it.

I think Wikileaks os going to go out with a whimper. I don't believe there is anything there. And even if there is, better to behave as if there isn't.

[djpg]

it would be a miracle if this race is even close, because Trump is up against the press and both political parties.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“it would be a miracle if this race is even close, because Trump is up against the press and both political parties.”

To some extent, this is always the case.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“I think Wikileaks os going to go out with a whimper. I don't believe there is anything there. And even if there is, better to behave as if there isn't.”

I wouldn't count on Wikileaks, but what is out there already is pretty damning in my book. There's plenty of ammo to use already.

[nclaurel]

In your scenario, Clinton supporters who are not so enthusiastic may just opt to not vote since she would have it in the bag. Most Trump supporters will crawl through broken glass to vote.

[jmaroneps37]

Trump gained 7 points in 7 days. He was down 5 in this poll 8/13.

[Cboldt]

-- I wouldn't count on Wikileaks, but what is out there already is pretty damning in my book. --

It sure is. Clinton's defense is "there is no proof of a quid pro quo," demanding that dots be explicitly connected with "hard evidence." Everybody knows that is impossible, the case for pay-for-play is a circumstantial one, and darn solid. Rebutting with "you didn't catch me red-handed" may work for Gergen and the rest of the Democrats (who, if caught, would say pay-for-play was for the greater good and is okay), but not everybody will tolerate the government occupants openly running a criminal enterprise.

Plus there is that whole nationalist vs. globalist thing going on. I'd rather have a crooked nationalist than an honest globalist. Not saying that's what the pick is, just that I put more weight on the political direction.

[erlayman]

They were off by less than 1 percent in the 2012 spread although I think that was a combined judgment of polling data + RAND expert panelists. Trump goes up when he isn’t in the news making major mistakes, it is a pattern that has been played over and over this season. Fingers crossed it is upwards and onwards from here !

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“Plus there is that whole nationalist vs. globalist thing going on. I'd rather have a crooked nationalist than an honest globalist.”

I agree, but it's even worse when you have crooked globalists, which is what we have.

I think the concept of being a sanctuary of freedom and the place where those who are truly persecuted can turn to, should be emphasized by Trump - sort of like Reagan's comment: “If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth.” He can use this to point out that when we don't have individual sovereign nations, and are governed by global interests without specific loyalties and ethos, we have nowhere to escape to. He can also use this to point out that he is ‘pro-immigrant’, for those who embrace the dream of America, who see America as that last great place, and who want to come here to strengthen and grow that dream of America for themselves, for those who are already here, and for those who will come (something like that). This neutralizes the anti-immigrant bs, but also reiterates the point about wanting people who love America, and reemphasizes the need to protect what America is and represents to the world.

[USS Alaska]

This whole thing is a setup.

Try a Bloody Mary, it will help your hangover. No one that is sober, can be that cynical.

[MIA_eccl1212]

The purpose is to give us confidence by showing a move closer to reality... (in reality this is not even close—trump is wiping the floor with the diaper lady).
Then after we say “whew, they are finally on track... then they drop it to “loser again” so that they can try to manipulate people to get depressed: “I guess trump is not as good as we thought” type of trash.

Their reality is, if they don’t adjust the background selection groups to show trump slightly ahead, they will lose all semblance of reliability to the business of “promoting the elections” which is to journalism and ad campaigns, like christmas is to wealthy industrialized christian nations.

they are trying to save face, gain our trust, so they can kick us in the balls again, lather rinse repeat.

its what they do.

trump is slaughtering her, and they know if they don’t show something for trump... they will not be listened to at all...

[MIA_eccl1212]

no...
its a fraud.

this is NO HORSERACE.

it IS A SLAUGHTER in process.

[dp0622]

From your lips to God’s ears :)

[SamAdams76]

All these polls are dumb. People don’t just change there minds like this. How does Trump gain 20 points among Hispanics in just days? Bunch of noise and nonsense.

The race was probably decided months ago and my gut feeling is that Trump is well ahead and has been well ahead.

These pollsters are just playing with our heads.

[Cboldt]

All very well said. Great remarks - BUMP!!

[Sooth2222]

“it would be a miracle if this race is even close, because Trump is up against the press and both political parties.”

To some extent, this is always the case.

I remember watching the 1980 election returns come in in 1980 on PBS (this was pre-cable), and the facial expression of the news anchor was priceless. Yes, it has always been like this. One difference now is that there are many more information outlets than there were in 1980.

The USC / LA Times tracking poll uses the same methodology as the Rand poll which was #4 in 2012. If we go to the graph, it shows a bump for Trump following the Republican convention and a bump for Clinton following the Democrat convention. So this result isn't surprising. #1 poll in 2012 was IBD/Tipp which had Trump -7 but that was two weeks ago. Pollsters #2 and #3 haven't even started yet -- women's beach volleyball is more important to most until Labor day.

So Trump reassuming a lead is not surprising IMO. The methodology of the USC / Times poll would seem to pick up more "shy" Trump voters than other polls.

The talking heads attribute Trump's polling crash to the Wrath of Khan incident. I beg to differ. It doesn't matter what your race, color, creed or place of national origin is. Khizr Khan is, I think, a horrible poster child for Clinton. If he lived down the street, would you invite him to your barbecue? I don't think that he'd be fun to have as a party guest at all.

[erlayman]

It is difficult to deduce where these shifts are coming from without data in this sample for Undecideds or Other voters, but Trump has internal polling as well which must indicate a sizable swath of the electorate that is leaning for him but that does need to see a more disciplined, decisive leadership style to be comfortable in their decision.

[LS]

Reagan beat the press, twice. Bush beat the press. Bush 41 beat the press. Ike beat the pro-Stevenson press twice.

[Pinkbell]

Somebody better tell Hillary:

With a comfortable lead, Clinton begins laying plans for her White House agenda

(First up is amnesty by the way...followed by going after gun manufacturers.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/with-a-comfortable-lead-clinton-begins-laying-plans-for-her-white-house-agenda/2016/08/20/4f21cef4-65ce-11e6-96c0-37533479f3f5_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop_b