Posted on 08/21/2016 12:13:33 AM PDT by tatown
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(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
How reliable?
The polling organizations can only lie for so long before they have to report the truth or lose their reputation.
Breakdown of significant demographic margins between Aug. 19 and today’s results Aug 21.
Demographic———Aug 19-———Aug 21-——Change
White voters———17.1————20.1-———TR+3.0
Hispanic voters-—31.3————15.5-———HC-15.8
Males-——————10.0————14.8-———TR+4.8
18-34——————HC+4.2———TR+0.8———TR+5.0
Some college———3.2-————+8.0-———TR+4.8
$35K—$75K-———12.8-————16.8-———TR+4.0
Remarkable turnaround by Trump especially with Hispanic voters.
Yes! I believe Trump is the mist of a “YUGE!” surge.
After Zero refuses to give up his in the laps of luxury vacation to deal with the Milwaukee riots and the Louisiana floods, Hillary’s disappearance and Trump showing his willingness and ability to take the lead, I think many Americans are becoming aware of Mr Trumps leadership abilities.
“How reliable?”
This is a daily, rolling seven day, tracking poll that has been running since early July. Each days sample is about 3,000 people. Trump lead by 7 in this pool 7 days after the RNC. Hillary move to a 2 point lead 7 days after the DNC. Hillary had held a small 2 to 4 point lead in this poll up until a few days ago.
My guess is this poll is far more accurate than any of the network polls around.
I believe the race to be a dead heat at this point with a slight edge to Trump at this point.
Woo HOO !
What reputation?
Comparison of Trump and Clinton demographic margins from 1 week ago vs. today:
Demographic———Aug 14————Aug 21-——Net change
18-34——————HC+13.8-———DT+0.8-——DT+14.6
35-64——————HC+1.8————DT+1.0-——DT+2.8
65+———————DT+1.0————DT+5.3-——DT+4.3
High school———DT+2.6————DT+13.9——DT+11.3
Some college-——DT+4.5————DT+8.0-——DT+3.5
College degree-—HC+19.6-———HT+15.0——DT+4.6
White——————DT+15.9-———DT+20.1——DT+4.2
A/A———————HC+82.3-———HC+70.1——DT+12.2
Hispanic-————HC+39.1-———HC+15.5——DT+23.6
Female-—————HC+12.9-———HC+10.4——DT+2.5
Male-——————DT+4.2————DT+14.8——DT+10.6
<$35K——————HC+18.7-———HC+14.8——DT+3.9
$35K-$75K————DT+10.0-———DT+16.8——DT+6.8
>$75K——————HC+7.9————DT+0.6-——DT+8.5
Big changes in both AA and Hispanic vote
Your right, they have none with nylons who digs
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According to 538Blog, RAND was one of the most accurate polls in the 2012 presidential race.
Trump’s comeback is truly a miracle: gaining 6.7 points in one week of polling is astronomical.
I SAW!!!!! BUT I DONT KNOW HOW TO POST THREADS!!!! :)
ONLY 2 DAYS OF THE GREAT SPEECH AND MO VISIT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, I WOULD ASSUME!!
As reliable as any, more reliable than most.
.
This whole thing is a setup. The polls will be inflating Trump slowly until he has a comfortable lead. Then they will bounce it up and down until sometime in October. At that time Hillary’s team will release some made up or exaggerated dirt on Trump.
Then they will show huge drops in Trump’s numbers overnight. Headlines: “Trump crashes. Hillary takes sudden lead of 10%. The Donald’s approval drops, Hillary’s finally above 50%. Trump team in a panic. Internal fighting and blaming. It may be all over for Trump. All demographics dumping Trump. It looks like it’s going to be President Hillary!”
The honest polls will be mocked as fake data to try to make it look as if Trump still has a chance.
You’re an optimistic fella :)
This poll actually is pretty good at reflecting bad weeks and good weeks for trump and hillary.
Just a snapshot in time, but not a fraud.
I love the trend. What a great way to start my morning before Mass! Thanks for posting!
Now there is a new generation of idiots, and many of them will believe what the press says.
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