YouGov poll. D +16% My ass. It's about "even" in this election.
Posted on 08/17/2016 5:31:00 PM PDT by Enlightened1
This is a must watch for every Freeper. This professor has been correct on ever election, (popular vote), since 1996.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fK1sc-6fGT8
On the RCP average, Trump has moved from 7.8 down to 6.0 down.
If that pattern were to continue.....he’d overtake her easily.
I also think they have dropped Rasmussen from the average? And Rasmussen usually has Trump down just 3 or 4 I think.....
I have to point out that since 1996 is not exactly an extensive record.
‘96, ‘00, 04, ‘08, ‘12 is only five. That it is consecutive is a good indicator, but hardly conclusive.
Skepticism is warranted.
would love to know more about the model, of course
You are on to the correct interpretation.
The key is trajectory. THe other is to look at the over-sample of democRATS in the polls. most are +10% democRAT so they are not reliable in and of themselves, but if we see an upward trajectory for Trump with the built in biases, then Trump may very well win it.
Furthermore only 8% are willing to be polled. Conservatives distrust pollers and thus get underrepresented.
Don’t forget they are now over sampling Democrats by 15%.
This is when Republican vote at the Primary was at an all time high.
At the very same time the DNC Primary was close to an all time low.
Hillary lost the Will of the Democrat voters too in the DNC Primary, but was rewarded the Super Delegates even though Sanders won.
So what was the R to D percentage in 2012? I have often heard of the oversampling fallacy...but it always seems to be pretty accurate come election day, so I’m skeptical that they are oversampling. I’d say go with the 2012 percentages and then hope for better (which i think likely) just to be conservative. But of course I don’t know what the 2012 numbers are in this regard.
Trump is going to win the popular vote going away. But 125% of the vote in 5 urban centers and Trump loses the election.
Just saw a propagandist on newsmax saying Trump had a one in 10 chance of winning. Total liar.
The media poll models are totally flawed. Throw in their Trump hating media bias makes them about worthless.
You can just go to actual polls and see it. It has the breakdown in the actual poll. You have to get beyond the article talking about the poll and go to the actual poll.
It’s been posted on free Republic. I would have dig around to find it.
Even Reuters admits to redoing their polls. They just change them. Why would they do that unless they are trying to condition the public to think Hillary is ahead when they plan to steal the election.
There is no energy at the Hillary rallies. She can’t even get 300 people in a medium size city like Orlando, Florida.
Meanwhile Trump has thousands every rally. Think of it like a rock band. Hillary can only feel a local bar while Trump fills the large venues.
Even Social Media easily shows Trump way ahead. There were articles on this too.
The DNC is divided right now. Many Sanders supporters know Hillary stole the vote via the Super Delegate. Trump has a huge following.
The only way Hillary wins is by stealing. It’s why Trump is talking about it. The witch is a joke!
“Conservatives distrust pollers and thus get underrepresented”
I always hear this and wonder why conservatives think it’s better to refuse a poll than log a vote in a poll for the conservative candidate. Every election we hear that the polls are wrong because conservatives don’t participate, but they have been right the last 2 elections.
Wouldn’t it be better to have the polls look as good as possible for your candidate? Sadly, polls do influence people. I talked to 3 family members this week who aren’t very political and were pretty positive about Trump and negative about Hillary, but are now thinking Hillary isn’t that bad because she’s winning in the polls.
Frustrating!
“I have often heard of the oversampling fallacy.”
It’s not a fallacy. It’s been proven time and again, that polling companies are oversampling Dems.
YouGov poll. D +16% My ass. It's about "even" in this election.
Honestly I think polling should be illegal for three months prior to any election, make the candidate sweat if their screwup cost them votes or not.
It would be surprising to see them less pandering to polls and having to say what they really think.
I agree on the social media angle. And the world is different than it was even four years ago.
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