On the RCP average, Trump has moved from 7.8 down to 6.0 down.
If that pattern were to continue.....he’d overtake her easily.
I also think they have dropped Rasmussen from the average? And Rasmussen usually has Trump down just 3 or 4 I think.....
You are on to the correct interpretation.
The key is trajectory. THe other is to look at the over-sample of democRATS in the polls. most are +10% democRAT so they are not reliable in and of themselves, but if we see an upward trajectory for Trump with the built in biases, then Trump may very well win it.
Don’t forget they are now over sampling Democrats by 15%.
This is when Republican vote at the Primary was at an all time high.
At the very same time the DNC Primary was close to an all time low.
Hillary lost the Will of the Democrat voters too in the DNC Primary, but was rewarded the Super Delegates even though Sanders won.