Don’t forget they are now over sampling Democrats by 15%.
This is when Republican vote at the Primary was at an all time high.
At the very same time the DNC Primary was close to an all time low.
Hillary lost the Will of the Democrat voters too in the DNC Primary, but was rewarded the Super Delegates even though Sanders won.
So what was the R to D percentage in 2012? I have often heard of the oversampling fallacy...but it always seems to be pretty accurate come election day, so I’m skeptical that they are oversampling. I’d say go with the 2012 percentages and then hope for better (which i think likely) just to be conservative. But of course I don’t know what the 2012 numbers are in this regard.
Trump is going to win the popular vote going away. But 125% of the vote in 5 urban centers and Trump loses the election.