Posted on 08/05/2016 7:49:56 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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By Max Von Solow PG Farnsworth “We have just completed our own poll since we cannot get factual information from the mainstream media!! we called 1000 homes in each of the 50 states and asked basic questions on the economy, terrorism, immigration and presidential pick.
Economy was the number one factor that Americans are concerned about and terrorism was number two.
Presidential pic was Trump by a large percentage
Trump 33478 votes 67% Clinton 9788 Votes 19% Undecided or other 6739 votes 13% My friends and I are all Graduate students from all walks of life we meet to discuss stuff 13 people who like and have served the military. It took us most of two weeks to be sure our calls were to all people and not just one party or an other we called Americans.. our poll is by taking registered voter lists and we accumulated 33% repub, 33% dems and 34% ind.. our poll consisted of 1000 calls per state. all 50 states. 50,000 people are in this poll not the 100 like other polls.”
(Excerpt) Read more at tomohalloran.com ...
silly me, you didn't spoil my soup, but I'm sure your just an over educated individual that knows everything about everything. Seems we have a lot of folks here that fit that bill..
Have a great week end...ENJOY LIFE...
THIS AMERICAN FAMILY IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CAST OUR VOTE FOR TRUMP~PENCE..WITH PRIDE AND HONOR..AND THIS WAS A GREAT POLL..I'M SURE IT WAS TAKEN BY CONCERNED PEOPLE WHO ARE FED UP WITH THESE MEDIA CONTROLLED POLLS.
Good grief. What are you drinking? I’m 1000% for Trump-Pence.
But this is a meaningless poll. You just can’t poll a random selection of 1000 people from each of the 50 states and use that data to predict an election.
Most polls are equally bad on the Hillary end. But not all. The USC poll which has Trump and Hillary basically tied looks pretty legit. Corrected for a known bias has Trump up by about a point.
But this poll tells us nothing. Sorry about that. I wish it was true.
Close to 30,000 people watched Trump’s Maine rally on YouTube live. For Trump’s Jacksonville Fl rally, over 147,000 people have viewed it on YouTube. Compared to Hillary’s rally with Warren Buffet, which has only 47,000 views. YUGE difference. Trump will win in a landslide. Never give up, Never Surrender.
drink a root beer...old fashioned one..
to each of us our opinion..
stop trying to be so perfect..
Sure hope your telling the truth that your 1000% TRUMP~PENCE living in California, must be difficult for you.
The validity of their sampling depends on the completeness of the voting rolls, plus it may be skewed by who is able and willing to take a call...but that kind of difference is monumental.
While Reuters and a couple others did get caught tweaking their methodology for a different result retroactively...which is bull feathers...still its hard to believe they are skewing it as much as this poll suggests...what it suggests of course is that the regular polling outfits are better off scuttling their models altogether and not try to balance the polls, because the balancing doesn't apply to this election.
I pretty dubious about it, but it would be crazy interesting if it were for real.
That sample, of the same number from each state, grossly overstates rural states and undersamples Democrat strongholds such as California and New York.
There are the same number of calls to Alaska as there are to California.
Not very scientific, but interesting. The 33-33-33 percent breakdown is likely pretty close.
Some of the sting of these sins is made up by making sure they had 1 third of each of R, D, and I, but that has its own problems too.
But even with all these problems, the discrepancy in the results is significant. Unless they are making this up (which I am suspecting they might have, or they might have fudged data, 50,000 calls is a lot!), it has interesting implications as to the methodology of the professional polls, and they may want to do some sanity checking.
I see some Hillary bumper stickers now and then. But, when it comes to voicing opinions, the Trumpsters have it at least 3:1.
LOL. OK on the root beer.
But no way on the perfect bit. I’m a poll freak by nature. I ran the KeyHouseRaces.com website in 2010 and we did a pretty good job of predicting the number of GOP seats we would win. That was big year for us. We took over the House. And the polls that year, the few good ones, allowed us to predict that we would and by what margin.
Wouldn’t you like to know the likely margin of a Trump victory in November? I would. I’d like to know it right now, tonight.
This year, and in all previous presidential election years, polls are being used as a propaganda tool. So if we are going to be critical of that I believe we have to be just as critical in the rare case when it goes in our favor.
And don’t forget bammy’s upbeat presser on Thursday about beating Isis.
“You have to allocate the sample size for each state based on the state population at a minimum. Dividing those population by the known D/R/I distribution is also necessary
Correct me if I’m wrong ....”
Since you ask.
Sample size and margin of error are inversely related. Bigger samples = smaller error due to chance (all things else being equal). 1,000 is a large sample. When you’re dealing with large populations (e.g. that of any state), the require sample size is the same — regardless of the population.
It’s not “necessary” to divide the sample, in advance, by R/D/I. If you have valid and reliable numbers for these subsets, then it can help to use them. But, what if you’re wrong — we are talking about making a prediction. The election is a future event, and we don’t know how it will turn out. Trying to make a good guess, is the point of this whole thing.
If you suspect a systemic bias in your sample (e.g. perhaps fewer Rs will respond to your survey), you could compare the actual distribution of the sample vs. the “predicted” one. The results can be adjusted after-the-fact, on the basis of whatever assumptions you wish to make.
The MSM is the Country’s greatest threat.
Agreed. Very poor methodology, utterly meaningless, but fun.
The problem with the poll is the equal allocation of votes counted to each state. Each state gets 1000 votes in the poll. The state by state polling could well be accurate. But that cannot be translated to a national poll by simply adding up the votes.
There may well be more Republican states than Dem states in which case the poll results would predictably favor Trump. I suspect that is the case here. We hame more states. The Dems have the big ones (mostly.)
Ooops! You must have missed the part where they explain that they selected 34% Dem, 33% Rep, 33% Independent (or some voter-similar specific breakdown). Hardly a "random selection" of just any 1000 people.
Why do you feel the need to misrepresent the issue?
“Sure hope your telling the truth that your 1000% TRUMP~PENCE living in California”
You know, when the liberals accuse Trump of being a Nazi, I just laugh it off. But then there’s people like you on FR that act JUST like Nazi’s.
What the hell happened to you anyway?
Nevertheless, the return ratios should be accurate - most polls are a few hundred, not a thousand, let alone fifty thousand, let alone every state.
Hey, dude, no fair conducting your own poll; only the enemedia is allowed to do that!
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