New WI Poll: Trump 42, Cruz 32, Kasich 23

American Research Group ^ | 04/04/2016 | American Research Group

[GIdget2004]

Likely Republican Primary Voters Apr 1-3 Cruz 32% Kasich 23% Trump 42% Other * Undecided 3%

[apoliticalone]

“I was not expecting Mr. Trump to win Wisconsin, however it will put further pressure on the Uniparty.”

I’m thinking just maybe - the pro Russian oligarch, pro 3rd world, pro illegal immigrant, pro cheap labor, pro bankster, pro TPP-Mexican-China trade, and the screw America GOP-e uni-party run by an anti Constitutional schmuck like Preibus is really getting scared.

[for-q-clinton]

I’d agree. And if he ends up losing I’d say Trump supporters are too quick to dismiss bad polls as fake media. We shall see.

But the biggest thing is...if Trump wins WI he will probably hit 1237 and be the nominee. If he doesn’t win WI he most likely will miss 1237 and he will not be the nominee.

[acw011]

You’re killing it hard on this thread. Lmao

[for-q-clinton]

Maybe you don’t understand the rules. If you don’t get 1237 delegates you don’t win. Therefore, what is Trump’s path to victory if he doesn’t have 1237 votes?

I think Cruz has a path to victory at the convention. He’s playing the delegate game and ground game very well. And delegates are NOT gopE by default. They are people like us that are involved in local politics. So there is no guarantee the GOPe gets their way.

[for-q-clinton]

Also GOP doesn’t win without OH. Trump couldn’t even beat Kasich in Ohio so by your logic we’re doomed.

[Lakeshark]

I would be pleased if this were true, but I think this one will likely be close, and go to Cruz.

We'll find out tomorrow night from the only poll that counts.

[for-q-clinton]

I’d like to see your breakdown of delegates.

Trump will win PA, but the delegates won’t vote for him (most likely). If he does win PA and he’s close to 1237 then he may squeak across as some unbound delegates vote for him in the first round to put this to bed and avoid a fight. Other than that there’s no way he’s the nominee without 1237.

California is proportional and closed (I think) so that should be interesting. I think Kasich and Cruz will do better than you think in Cali. May not win it but will get lots of delegates. But then I’m not 100% sure how CA spreads the delegates around.

Can you break out your delegates by state so I can consider your 1243 projection in context. When I did the math I had Trump needing nearly all WI delegates to hit 1237.

[Lakeshark]

I think Cruz has a path to victory at the convention.

Delusional.

[Luircin]

No, not really.

Home state.

Enough of a difference to make that comparison invalid.

[savedbygrace]

Of the 11 polls RCP show in March and April, only 2 show Trump winning.

[GizzyGirl]

Cruz cannot win... Trump can! And unless Hillary is indicted, the Dems will NEVER let Sanders get the nomination. So it will be Trump vs. Hillary!

[Repeal 16-17]

This is why most polls are BS. Is Trump up by 10 or is Cruz up by 10? Has there been a 20 point swing? To Hell with the polls. Tomorrow we will see the results from the only poll that matters.

[GizzyGirl]

Open Primaries....How do they work?

I heard that the ballot is same regardless of how you are registered... everyone gets the same ballot; all choices, Reps and Dems listed.

[Lucky9teen]

Well, sure...when you only take ONE poll out of all the ones done, the only one showing Trump ahead...of course he's a "winner"M

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Cruz	Trump	Kasich	Spread
RCP Average	3/24 - 4/3	--	--	39.0	34.9	19.6	Cruz +4.1
ARGARG	4/1 - 4/3	400 LV	5.0	32	42	23	Trump +10
EmersonEmerson	3/30 - 4/3	549 LV	4.1	40	35	21	Cruz +5
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov	3/29 - 4/1	675 LV	5.7	43	37	18	Cruz +6
FOX BusinessFOX Business	3/28 - 3/30	742 LV	3.5	42	32	19	Cruz +10
Loras CollegeLoras	3/28 - 3/29	416 LV	4.8	38	31	18	Cruz +7
PPP (D)*PPP (D)*	3/28 - 3/29	768 LV	3.5	38	37	17	Cruz +1
MarquetteMarquette	3/24 - 3/28	471 LV	5.8	40	30	21	Cruz +10

[Radix]

In an open primary, one chooses a ballot, usually Republican or Democrat.

Never heard of a merged ballot. It is one or the other.

Horrible system for genuine Party members but I have been doing it for most of my voting life.

Never ever take a Dem. ballot though.

[BruceS]

Why are we even paying attention to polls today? Tomorrow we will know the results.

[Radix]

Consider Exodus 4:10 when you evaluate the significance of a silver tongue.

A lot of people can charm with verbosity but few ever make a real difference with words alone.

[Flick Lives]

Good political cartoon.

[GizzyGirl]

I heard single ballot, same for both affiliations in the car on the way home. Was listening to a cable news on my satellite radio and they indicated they were holding it up for all to see so I know I heard it right. They might have been wrong but it’s definitely what they said.

[Trump20162020]

I doubt Trump will win Wisconsin, but holy crap would the Cruzbot melt down be hilarious. They've already put this state in their win column.

The media too, would be pretty hard hit. It'd destroy the 'Trump fading, worst week ever!' narrative they have planned out for tomorrow night.