Posted on 03/17/2016 8:35:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
If this poll accurately reflects the US electorate, get ready for the mother of all gender gaps (so to speak) in November if Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination. The frontrunner has a major problem with women, according to this Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted over the first half of March, and it has gotten worse rather than better over the last six months. Half of all women have a “very unfavorable” view of Trump, in an election that could pit him against the first female major-party nominee:
Real estate billionaire Donald Trump’s coarse rhetoric has won him some fans, but there’s at least one large group in America that is increasingly unimpressed: women.
Half of U.S. women say they have a “very unfavorable” view of the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, up from the 40 percent who felt that way in October. The survey was taken from March 1-15, and included 5,400 respondents.
The rise in anti-Trump sentiment among women could pose a problem for the New York billionaire in his quest for the White House. Women form just over half of the U.S. population, and they have turned out at higher rates than men in every election since 1996, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
“If the presidential election were tomorrow, women would be a big problem for Trump,” Republican strategist David Carney said. “But he has time to fix it.”
In head-to-head polling, Reuters puts the gender gap between Trump and Hillary Clinton into double digits:
If the GOP frontrunner were to run against Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton in the general election, likely women voters would support Clinton over Trump by nearly 14 percentage points, according to the March polling data. Among men, Clinton would win by about 5 percentage points.
I asked Reuters for a statement on methodology, and they provided this:
Margin of error: The credibility interval for our polls on women who give Trump the lowest level of favorability – aka “very unfavorable” – is 1.9 percentage points in March and 1.6 percentage points in October.
Sample sizes and dates: The March poll included 3,477 responses from March 1 to March 15. The October poll included 5,093 responses from Oct. 1 to Oct. 31.
It’s an interesting result, especially since the same polling data for Reuters’ national tracking poll suggests that Trump does better among women at the moment than his Republican rivals in the GOP primaries, at least. Filtering down to March 1-15 and selecting women only across all political affiliations, a third of 1,997 respondents support Trump for the GOP nomination, while only 16% support Ted Cruz. Nearly 30% wouldn’t vote at all. When narrowed further to only Republican and independent voters (1,632 respondents), Trump gets 39%, Cruz gets 18.3%, and 18.9% wouldn’t vote at all. (Note that this poll included Marco Rubio and Ben Carson for at least part of the period.)
Even without the gender gap, Trump has major favorability issues in Reuters’ tracking polls. Once again filtering for those who participated in 2012, 39.5% of respondents view him very unfavorably, 6.9% somewhat unfavorably, and another 9.2% lean toward unfavorable, for a total unfavorability of 55.6%. He gets only 18.2% for “very favorable,” with a total favorability of 44.4%.
However, when it comes to the head-to-head matchup, the tracking poll shows Trump a distant second to Hillary, 41.1/34, with a quarter of respondents declaring that they’ll skip the election altogether. That narrows slightly when filtering out all those who didn’t vote for either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in 2012, but Hillary still leads 46.2/39.7, and 14% of those who voted in 2012 say they won’t be back in 2016. Among men who voted in 2012, Hillary only has a slight edge, 44/43.5, but among women who voted in 2012, it expands to 48.5/35.8.
Don’t forget that the gender gap in 2012 was much narrower. Women made up 53% of the electorate and broke 55/44 for Obama, while men went for Romney 52/45 for a net gap of -4 for the GOP. Right now, we’d be looking at a net gap of -13.2 among those who voted in 2012. That has the makings of a disaster for Republicans in November if it doesn’t change, one that could roll well down the ballot.
There is certainly time to fix this, and head-to-head polling is still somewhat fraught at this stage with other emotional baggage from the primaries. Also, Reuters does not have similar data readily available to compare Trump against Ted Cruz or John Kasich, which makes it a little tough to argue on a data basis that either would substantially improve the GOP’s chances in the fall. However, this is still a big red flag for Republicans, especially given that they will likely face off against a woman at the top of the opposing ticket.
I am far from a dyke, I would never vote for Hillary but I have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. In my conservative circle of friends, every woman I know has an unfavorable view of him and that is putting it mildly. I voted for him in my primary ONLY because he is leading, any other vote would have been a throwaway, and it was an opportunity to put it to the GOP.
And yet millions of them are voting for him. Hmmm voter turnout vrs Media polling.....which should we believe?
BS! Trump will need to remind the women of this country about Hillary!s Bimbo Eruption Squad........DESTROYING THE WOMEN who came out to accuse Billy-boy.....and the fact that they were all Democrat women. Hillary!s past hasn’t yet begun to catch up with her!
Has anybody measured the “Enthusiasm Gap”? You can poll till all the lights go off, but if the people you poll stay home and don’t vote, the poll is worthless. Hillary excites nobody. Trump’s voters will show up. Hillary’s will be shopping and sleeping.
and a positive view of Hillary /SARC
Also independent women.
Don't write them off as a bunch of leftists. My 10 year old has said that every kid at her grade school hates Donald Trump. Now how could that be, did they all follow the debates and make a decision based on policy? Nope, this is one part "mom hates him, so..." and one part echo chamber within the school.
And so?
Half of women (or more) are democrats
Half of U.S. women prefer to be gang raped in Copenhagen than to be considered a Patriot.
No surprise, you see how they’ve voted for the last 80 years Why would anyone be shocked that there was a large traitor contingent among them.
Are they hiring an executive to fix the country or a Pastor?
These attempts to get at Trump are getting kinda lame, aren’t they??? LOL
Does that mean half of all women prefer "metro sexual men" or "lesbians"?
She can be indicted or have a coughing fit during a debate. Or shows low energy and Bill shows to much energy. Know what I mean. Nudge nudge
Hitlery to Trump? Why do you hate women?
Trump to Hitlery? Why do you love rapists?
She doesn't understand that "smooth and polished" and "caring and compassionate" is what many American males are sick and tired of with their politicians. We need a straight talker who is not afraid to tackle the issues head-on with no spin and no niceties.
I still think many women will come around if it gets down to Trump vs Shrillary in the fall but for now, I am definitely seeing that Trump has lost a rather large chunk of women support.
Not sure what the answer is. Maybe Trump just has to be nicer in order to appeal to women.
They NEVER report about the other half. Funny that is.
I am a male and this poll definitely rings true with the women with whom I work, most of whom are actually conservative. They don’t like Hillary, nor do they like Trump (not even a bit).
If women make up a bit over half the population of the US then they’re saying that over 100 million of us hate Trump? That is a stretch.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.