Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, It's Decision Time

My own workup | 03/16/2016 | DoughtyOne / for Free Republic

[DoughtyOne]

The long 2016 presidential campaign trail is nearing the end.  One person now has a chance of winning the delegates needed to avoid a floor fight at the Republican Convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio.  That man is Donald J. Trump.

Out of a field of seventeen, three men are left standing.  Two of them have a question to ponder.  That question is this.

Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, what do you two want your legacy to be?

At the current time, Senator Cruz needs 84% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.  Governor Kasich needs 111% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Kasich is mathematically eliminated from any chance of a first ballot win.  Ted Cruz is almost certainly in the same boat.

For Ted to win the delegates necessary, Kasich would have to drop out now, and Trump would have to win less than 16% of the remaining delegates.

Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates.  For him not to get them, Kasich would have to stay in and between him and Ted Cruz, they would have to win more then 43% of the remaining delegates.  That is not going to happen.

This leaves these men with two choices.  Here they are.

1. These two men can stay in the race until the bitter end mid-June, and be seen as trying unsuccessfully to deny Donald Trump a victory he has earned.  Failing miserably, they will not even bring this to a convention floor fight, the only remote possibilty they have.  If they do this, they will forever be seen as GOPe waterboys.

2. These two men can recognize the futility of remaining in the race, suspend their campaigns at once, and graciously congratulate Trump on a well fought victory.  Thus they will be seen as two men who were gracious in defeat.

Each day these men opt for number one, they increase the public's perception of the outcome I outlined.  It is to each of their advantage, to accept option two at the earliest opportunity.

These figures make that very clear.



These figures will morph as more delegates are assigned over the next day or so...

[TexasCajun]

-Thank You-

[nitzy]

Because the Kasich and Trump are polar opposites....

Complete legalization in 100 days VS. build a wall....

Aw shucks, Golly jee VS. F#&%$ YOU, MOTHERF*&^ER

[catnipman]

“Next time, hitch your wagon to a conservative”

Hey, gotta love those “conservatives”!

After all, so many of us still remember how the heroic “conservatives” in Congress stood up to Obama and stopped his agenda dead in its tracks by passing a budget that eviscerated his illegal immigration policies, eliminated the energy-destroying EPA, eliminated the Marxist propaganda Education Department, eliminated the job-destroying Labor Department, eliminated the racist Civil Rights Commission, defunded the FCC until they give back control of the Internet to private industry, defunded Obamacare, defunded the Planned Parenthood slaughter, defunded enforcement of 99% of Obama”s regulations and Executive Orders. It was a great day for America when that happened, when “conservatives” stopped Obama’s agenda cold.

Given all of these amazing accomplishments by the “conservatives”, it’s no wonder that the only thing that Freepers and rank-and-file Republicans everywhere care about is getting some more of them elected so that they can continue applying their “conservative” principles to such good effect.

[TexasCajun]

He wasn’t fighting the Establishment when he voted to give Obama Fast Track authority!

Let me remind you.

After McConnell and the House of Rep added immigration and re-authorization for Export-Import Back, Cruz voted against it.

Then called Mitch McConnell a liar on the Senate Floor to be recorded for eternity.

...coming back to you now?

Do you not think Donald Trump would want Fast Track Authority to make his trade deals?

[JediJones]

One person now has a chance of winning the delegates needed to avoid a floor fight at the Republican Convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio.

FALSE!

Either Cruz or Trump can still win enough delegates if the other one drops out. Neither can if they both stay in.

[867V309]

What is you point? Churlish school yard attacks put in Hillary. It that what you want?

What is your point? It sounds to me that you want to silence opposition to your candidate.

[JediJones]

Your analysis is WRONG, WRONG, WRONG!

Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates. For him not to get them, Kasich would have to stay in

If Kasich drops out, Cruz DESTROYS Trump going forward. Even if Cruz dropped, Kasich would probably outwin Trump in the remaining contests. Trump is only helped by both of them staying in. He gets closer to 1237 if both stay in than if either drops out.

You don't understand winner-take-all rules or basic math perhaps.

[nitzy]

If Trump drops out, Cruz has a clear “path” to the nomination.

Same with Trump. If Cruz drops out, Trump has a clear “path” to the nomination.

If either of them stays in, neither will reach 1237.

I fully believe Cruz could have more delegates at the end if it were a 2 man race.

[Religion and Politics]

There is a meeting in DC today to start a conservative party.

Now is not the time for this. A conservative revolt against the... voters?

This whole counter Trump movement is the stupidest thing I have ever seen. It basically, in my opinion, is based in PRIDE. People like Erick Erickson, one of the three up there meeting, and PRIDE. Pride in being right.

What was supposed to happen was for Trump to explode. They were so sure of that happening that they excommunicated Trump from their gatherings, publicly ridiculed him, and when that didn't work, said that they weren't going to support him under any circumstance. And now since that didn't work either, they are out of options, so JUST WHERE DO THEY GO NOW?

They have to make it look like something other than just plain old wooden stupid. They have completely mis-read this from the beginning, so they decide to say the rest of us are crazy and they will stand on principle. And since they drew their little red lines right on out of the room and now find themselves standing outside looking in, well, they will go get themselves a 3rd party candidate.

Why, those Patriots! Play the fife for them! Idiots...

But this isn't as much about principle as it is about in them being wrong and them trying to turn it into being right somehow, and in being relevant, and in being needed, and in ultimately pride and power and, while they probably don't see it this way, money. JMHO

They should just repent and just be done with it. Take the opportunity maybe to get behind Rick Scott's comments and retreat five steps or so. Then maybe, just maybe, we can put someone on the ticket with Trump that will sooth some of this over.

But I doubt it, their pride is too much to overcome. They have to make this look like a real movement of their own. They are moving alright, right on out the door and down the alley and to the places where they pitch tents... Because as of now they are out of the process because they declared it to be so, they didn't win and in the doing of that, decided that a kamikaze effort was worth a go.

They won't do the 3rd party, because they won't win and it will make them look even more stupid and more contrary and so forth. Ultimately they will take the Jonah approach of others. They will go up on the Hill and build their booth to watch what becomes of it all. Great guys. Just to make sure they are right about Trump losing to Hillary, they will probably go pull the lever for Hillary too.

I think we are better of without them. I think they should go lobby to become the "smart, conservative" wing of the Democrat party.

[Religion and Politics]

I fully believe Cruz could have more delegates at the end if it were a 2 man race.

So the South was the teeth of Trump's organizational strength and support and was Cruz's heel? And now that Cruz has gotten through the South he moves on to the strength of this support and where he is best organized?

That doesn't seem right to me.

[Ancesthntr]

“Kasich is working for the donors. His job is to see that neither Cruz nor Trump gets too close to 1,237.

Kasich will be in until that is assured or T or C make their number.”

---

That is undoubtedly true - the GOPe/donors don’t want EITHER Cruz or Trump. They WANT a brokered/contested convention so that they can get someone like Jeb or Rubio or Mittens the nomination.

I wish that the rabid supporters of each of Cruz and Trump would understand that. I could live with either as President (and I won’t state my preference here because it is immaterial to this discussion); what I CANNOT live with is President Hillary. If those who claim to care about this nation and/or conservative principles want President Hillary, then keep it up with the childish name-calling. If not, then act like grown-ups and start concentrating on what unifies us, rather than on what divides us. Understand that NO candidate - EVER - is, was or will be perfect. EVERY candidate is somewhat of a compromise. But I’d rather have 60% or 70% of what I want with a flawed candidate, than nothing at all if the other side wins. Hillary will give ALL of us exactly 0% of what we want in terms of policy - does ANYONE here want that?

[Religion and Politics]

After Cruz’s speech last night, he will continue to campaign and broaden his appeal.

Trump beat Cruz in ALL SIX contests yesterday. He better get broadening in a hurry. I heard his speech, and I thought it was pretty disconnected from the events of the day.

[nitzy]

I am seeing 631 delegate west of the Mississippi and 352 east of the Mississippi.

How many of these states do you think Trump is currently polling over 50%? (I have * the ones I think Cruz could win one on one)

*Arizona 58
*Utah 40
*North Dakota 28
*Wisconsin 42
New York 95
Conneticut 28
Delaware 16
Maryland 38
Pennsylvania 71
*Rhode Island 19
*Indiana 57
*Nebraska 36
*West Virginia 34
*Oregon 28
*Washington 44
*California 172
*Montana 27
*New Mexico 24
*South Dakota 29

[Haiku Guy]

If Trump continues to pull in his same numbers, Cruz can beat him by winning 53% of the remaining delegates.

This thing is a long, long way from over.

[RightLady]

Show me Kasich’s path to the presidency—He won Ohio. Cruz carries Texas by a better percentage than Kasich took his home state. Kasich is in single digits and would be finished without Soros propping him up.

[Yulee]

Trump and his supporters are going to end up putting in Hillary if the divisive attacks don’t stop.

Sometimes the truth just hurts.

---

How many more open primaries? How many more Dems will switch parties in order to choose Trump? They already know that Hillary is their candidate (super delegates assured).

I’m voting for Trump if he is the nominee, but I’m just asking. Open primaries enable the Dems to help choose our nominees. These nominees are pop stars or weak.

[nitzy]

There were many more candidates splitting up the vote at that point.

Those who are moving to Trump are already there. He would get 2 out of 10 Rubio supporters and 1 out of 10 Kasich supporters. Cruz would get the rest.

If he wasn’t above 50% in a state last week, he would lose it to Cruz next week.

[Velvet_Jones]

Cruz is not going to win Arizona, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, and I doubt he takes the Pacific NW. California might be uphill as well.

If Trump wins AZ, with the Northeast states coming up it will be numerically impossible for Cruz to win at the end of April. There won’t be enough delegates left.

[Religion and Politics]

nitzy, if we knew the answer, we wouldn't have to have elections. Cruz and his organization didn't get it done where it was presumed his message, appeal, support, and organization was strongest.

You are just assuming that "last man standing" garners all other votes and therefore beats Trump. I think Trump put that to bed yesterday where we had four contestants in six contests. Only Trump contested seriously in all six winning five of them. In all six, Trump bested Cruz. This isn't a math problem. Trump's support is broadening. Even in Ohio, Kasich couldn't garner a majority against a strong Trump, much like Cruz in Texas.

For Cruz to basically not even acknowledge the day Trump had yesterday and to characterize his day as "a good night... in the march to 1237" is pretty over the top. If one saw his speech alone, one might conclude that he was the one that put Marco Rubio out of the race and Marco had called him and conceded to him. Go watch it, it is absolutely ridiculous.

Maybe that is your problem, maybe you are somewhat in a "Cruz tunnel" or something. Maybe you really think Cruz has beat Trump 9 times or something... By that scoring, as I have pointed out, Trump beat Cruz 6 time yesterday alone.

[Dead Dog]

You must like Amnesty, maybe you noticed it got canned. Any idea who stopped it..just one dude.

How about Boehner, he’s gone now....any clue how that came down?

We are fighting an entrenched syndicate that has building power since Andrew Jackson, it takes time, and it takes a willingness to learn.

Any idea what committees those Tea Party candidates landed in?
People get frustrated, but dont seem to notice how farcwe come since 2006. Where was Trump then?