Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, It's Decision Time

My own workup | 03/16/2016 | DoughtyOne / for Free Republic

[DoughtyOne]

The long 2016 presidential campaign trail is nearing the end.  One person now has a chance of winning the delegates needed to avoid a floor fight at the Republican Convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio.  That man is Donald J. Trump.

Out of a field of seventeen, three men are left standing.  Two of them have a question to ponder.  That question is this.

Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, what do you two want your legacy to be?

At the current time, Senator Cruz needs 84% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.  Governor Kasich needs 111% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Kasich is mathematically eliminated from any chance of a first ballot win.  Ted Cruz is almost certainly in the same boat.

For Ted to win the delegates necessary, Kasich would have to drop out now, and Trump would have to win less than 16% of the remaining delegates.

Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates.  For him not to get them, Kasich would have to stay in and between him and Ted Cruz, they would have to win more then 43% of the remaining delegates.  That is not going to happen.

This leaves these men with two choices.  Here they are.

1. These two men can stay in the race until the bitter end mid-June, and be seen as trying unsuccessfully to deny Donald Trump a victory he has earned.  Failing miserably, they will not even bring this to a convention floor fight, the only remote possibilty they have.  If they do this, they will forever be seen as GOPe waterboys.

2. These two men can recognize the futility of remaining in the race, suspend their campaigns at once, and graciously congratulate Trump on a well fought victory.  Thus they will be seen as two men who were gracious in defeat.

Each day these men opt for number one, they increase the public's perception of the outcome I outlined.  It is to each of their advantage, to accept option two at the earliest opportunity.

These figures make that very clear.



These figures will morph as more delegates are assigned over the next day or so...

[Dead Dog]

I’ll trade you some of Trump’s bonds for it!

[Beagle8U]

” For him not to get them, Kasich would have to stay in and between him and Ted Cruz, they would have to win more then 43% of the remaining delegates. That is not going to happen.”

Yeah, that will happen!

[nitzy]

Would you concede that 99% of Kasich supporters would choose Cruz over Trump?

If so, logic would dictate that any future polling that comes out with Trump under 50% would be a Cruz victory in a one on one race.

Would you agree with that?

[gg188]

I hope that now, after last night (Trump, 5; Cruz, ZERO) the Cruzers here on FR will have the SELF-RESPECT to shut up, leave, wherever Establishment Globalists go to on the Internet, and leave FR to the PATRIOTS. Please:

Please, Cruzers: get out of your mom's basement and get some sunshine. The people have chosen the USA over one-world-government, North American Union, TPP, TPA, NAFTA, CFR, Ted-Trade, Heidi-Trade, a million new H1Bs, Syrians settled everywhere in flyover country---etc. All the stuff the Republicans funded for Obama.

Unlike the lying Repub senators of 2014 (which includes Cruz) Trump isn't LYING when he says he'll replace Obamacare, secure the border, reduce the debt, reduce the budget, rebuild the military, etc. The Republicans PROMISED that in 2014 but did the OPPOSITE, they gave Obama the trillions to destroy America. And where was Cruz during that? On TV raising hell, working behind the scenes, mobilizing and uniting the people? No, he was hob-knobbing with Goldman Sachs, Club for Growth, tax scofflaw Robert Mercer, the gay hoteliers in NYC, and selling influence in exchange for fifty million dollars (opensecrets.org, FEC.gov---it's all public record) including giving ONE HALF MILLION DOLLAR gift to Carly FIONARINA or whatever her name was.

You guys are losers and after polluting this forum for months the least you can do is now shut up., though it would be nice if you cleaned up after yourself, the pant loads and diaperloads you posted on here about Trump and about The Face Of God Anoited Snake Handler Ted Cruz.

[SaxxonWoods]

Kasich is working for the donors. His job is to see that neither Cruz nor Trump gets too close to 1,237.

Kasich will be in until that is assured or T or C make their number.

[CA Conservative]

Bring on the floor fight!

[Defiant]

he needs less to get more delegates than Trump

I agree that this is his game, a) get more delegates than Trump (highly unlikey at this stage; or 2) failing that, at least deny Trump a majority so that the convention goes to a second ballot (also unlikely, but plausible at this point).

This is one big reason why Cruz is being called establishment by some of us who previously thought he wasn't. He is doing the establishment's bidding. He may think that if Trump is shut down, he will get the nomination or maybe the VP slot, but that is a very losing proposition for him. The GOPe will not give anything to him, and whatever they end up doing after a brokered convention, the Democrats will win the election in a landslide. Only a Trump nomination, followed by support from the party, will give Republicans victory this November.

I am not sure Republicans want a victory this November, if they lost control of their milk cow, the party machine. They'd prefer to lose and keep the corrupt control of their piece of the DC pie. So Cruz is helping them out by the way he is playing his hand, and that makes him establishment, whatever he thinks about Obamacare or amnesty.

[dartuser]

Would you concede that 99% of Kasich supporters would choose Cruz over Trump?

Why would you even consider that as factual? Even remotely?

[Jeff Head]

As soon as the pledged Cruz delegate count combined with the pledged Trump delegate count exceeds the number needed for the nomination, Cruz should endorse Trump, become his VP candidate, and throw all of his delegates in with Trump thus ensuring a clear cut Trump win.

That would unite the vast majority of GOP voters.
That would deal the GOPe a crushing defeat.
That ticket would win in a landslide in November.

But those are just my thoughts on the matter.

See my 2016-0215 Primary Numbers and Analysis
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410028/posts

...the GOP Analysis section.

[Defiant]

Cruz has no path to winning. He fought a good fight, and until he got swept in the south, he did have a plausible path to victory. But not now. Why shouldn’t he get out, unless he is staying in to help the establishment defeat Trump? What does that say about where his allegiances lie?

[SaxxonWoods]

Right, Kasich is the stalking horse for a stolen nomination.

It’s hard to believe the PTB will have the guts to try it, but we are going to find out.

[fooman]

There are two alliances possible.

Cruz/Kaisch/Rubio. They combine delegates and campaign together.

Trump/Cruz. Game set match. Will their egos allow it?

Of course Trump could choose to grind it out with continued slash and burn tactics. There is a meeting in DC today to start a conservative party.

Cruz has to think about 2020 and 2024. Just like Reagan in 1976, Cruz can hone his interpersonal skills for the future and appeal to a broader base and build his organization.

Like he did in Alaska and Maine.

[Velvet_Jones]

That’s just nonsense. Cruz isn’t going to compete with Trump in the Northeast, and through the end of April most of the contests are there and they’re mostly WTA.

At the end of next month Cruz will have pulled another 40 delegates, and Trump will end up with roughly 250. There’s no way Cruz can take the nomination if that happens, and Kasich is a non-factor.

Hillary is the Dem nominee. It’s time for Kasich and Cruz to step aside and let Trump start campaigning against Hillary.

[Pravious]

Ditto.

Presuming, for the sake of argument, that Cruz is to the right of Trump, and Kasich is to the left of Trump, why would Kasich’s people jump to the far right? The only way that makes any sense is if you presume Kasich’s supporters are all simply anti-Trump people, and will vote anti-Trump no matter what, but I don’t think that’s the case.

[fooman]

After Cruz’s speech last night, he will continue to campaign and broaden his appeal.

[Alcibiades]

Ivy League schools, elite associates, a globalist CFR Goldman Sachs wife, you can’t get much more establishement than that.

Elite business school, business dealings with hedge funds including George Soros, donated millions to uniparty, invited to White House functions, President attended his third wedding. Sounds pretty similar to me.

Though both are better than Hillary or anyone else the GOPe might give us.

[SaxxonWoods]

99% of Kasich supporters go to Cruz?

It never works that way. About 40% of Jeb’s supporters went to Trump.

[HonorInPa]

I’m keeping a list of all the Trump cheerleaders here on FR so that when, not if, Donald reverts back to his NY liberal roots, I can remind everyone who drank the Kool-Aid and made FR nearly unbearable to visit. Pro-abort - check, amnesty - check, big-government - check. Just because someone is a loud-mouthed buffoon doesn’t mean he’s good for America (although lately America is becoming the land of loud-mouth buffoons - he must be their king).

[Teacher317]

Kasich needs 1095. There are only 1079 left. He is only in it to force a Convention for the RNC and GOPe.

Cruz is in a race. He is the ONLY candidate to win over 50% in ANY state, and the GOP rules require 8 such simple majority wins. Trump has none. For months, many have been saying that Trump has a ceiling of about 50%, and he has only 46% of the delegates, and has never topped the 49.3% he got in MASS (and all his best numbers are in liberal states).

If Kasich gets out of the way, especially with all of the winner-take-all states remaining, Cruz can easily win enough delegates to capture the nomination before the Convention.... IF the conjecture of the Trump Ceiling is correct. If it is not, and Trump starts racking up simple majorities and a bunch of winner-take-all states, then he will have the nomination easily before July. Kasich departing is the only way we can avoid the Convention... and this is why he will not leave, despite being mathematically eliminated yesterday.

[Religion and Politics]

The amount of votes Trump is getting is amazing. Can’t believe they don’t want those votes. This is all about power, nothing about policy, don’t let them fool you. It’s Trump or bust at this point

I think they actually think the votes belong to the party, that they are party votes.