Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, It's Decision Time

My own workup | 03/16/2016 | DoughtyOne / for Free Republic

[DoughtyOne]

The long 2016 presidential campaign trail is nearing the end.  One person now has a chance of winning the delegates needed to avoid a floor fight at the Republican Convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio.  That man is Donald J. Trump.

Out of a field of seventeen, three men are left standing.  Two of them have a question to ponder.  That question is this.

Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, what do you two want your legacy to be?

At the current time, Senator Cruz needs 84% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.  Governor Kasich needs 111% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Kasich is mathematically eliminated from any chance of a first ballot win.  Ted Cruz is almost certainly in the same boat.

For Ted to win the delegates necessary, Kasich would have to drop out now, and Trump would have to win less than 16% of the remaining delegates.

Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates.  For him not to get them, Kasich would have to stay in and between him and Ted Cruz, they would have to win more then 43% of the remaining delegates.  That is not going to happen.

This leaves these men with two choices.  Here they are.

1. These two men can stay in the race until the bitter end mid-June, and be seen as trying unsuccessfully to deny Donald Trump a victory he has earned.  Failing miserably, they will not even bring this to a convention floor fight, the only remote possibilty they have.  If they do this, they will forever be seen as GOPe waterboys.

2. These two men can recognize the futility of remaining in the race, suspend their campaigns at once, and graciously congratulate Trump on a well fought victory.  Thus they will be seen as two men who were gracious in defeat.

Each day these men opt for number one, they increase the public's perception of the outcome I outlined.  It is to each of their advantage, to accept option two at the earliest opportunity.

These figures make that very clear.



These figures will morph as more delegates are assigned over the next day or so...

[867V309]

Open primaries enable the Dems to help choose our nominees. These nominees are pop stars or weak.

Not necessarily true. I think many dogmatic democrats who wouldn't give cruise a second look see what Trump is about, and agree with his nationalistic stance.

[Leto]

My problem with Cruz is that, IMHO, he is not a “natural born Citizen” as delineated by the Constitution. I know that one or more local jurisdictional courts have said he is,
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Sure, right after you show us Trump’s path to a win in nov with negatives over 60% nationally.

[catnipman]

“but dont seem to notice how farcwe come since 2006”

I’ve noticed. We’ve come nowhere. Not a single iota of Obama’s agenda has been stopped. And nearly every “Tea Party” candidate elected sold us out, usually within weeks.

[Hoffer Rand]

And nearly every “Tea Party” candidate elected sold us out, usually within weeks.

This has been SO disheartening to see. You're absolutely right. The DC rot runs deep and is both insidious and pervasive. Almost impossible to know who to believe in.

[SunkenCiv]

To all:

The addition of Rubio's supporters to Cruz -- something that may or may not happen anyway -- would really mean something if Rubio had any support out there in the first place. He dropped out because he couldn't even carry his home state of Florida.

Kasich at least was able to -- just barely -- hang on in his home state. He'll poll better in the NE than Cruz, Cruz will poll better in some SW states, and Trump will come in first nearly every time -- or every time.

Trump took Florida, and will take NY and California, the remaining two biggies. Cruz and Kasich are done, done, done. Get it? Stop posting when drunk.

Thanks Doughty One.

[Dead Dog]

Man, I hear you on that. But look what has been done in the state houses, by conservatives, and look what didn't happen in DC. The Gang of Otcho got crushed, thanks to one conservative that hasn't kissed the ring. The problem isn't conservatism, or conservatives. They are and always have been the solution. The problem is cronyism, and Trump part of that system.

The Only thing holding it together are Mitch and Boehner/Ryan. Get a Mike Lee and a Louie Gohmert in there and the war is won. But destroying the conservative movement out of blind rage and replacing it with Trump, and the gravy train will consolidate power.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Kasich has to win 100% of the remaining 57 states.

[Biggirl]

The one who should go home NOW is Kasich, he will not win anything beyond Ohio.

[Theodore R.]

Kasich may be strong in CT, RI,DE, MD, IN, but what else?

[M. Thatcher]

Cruz has a chance

Actually, not. Click here to see why.

Cruz would have to beat Trump in California – zero chance. Trump is way ahead there.

When Trump wins California, game over.

[M. Thatcher]

the gravy train will consolidate power

Your theory has a fatal flaw: the evidence of actual behavior.

Every single corrupt hack who's now on the gravy train – which is all of DC, both parties, the consultant and donor class, all media, elected officials and down-ticket state and federal agency appointees, the entire global plutocracy – is fighting Trump tooth and nail, with a desperation and fury that betray the threat he is to the whole stinking system.

If Trump were a friend to them, they wouldn't be unleashing hell.

Question for you: WHY aren't they unleashing hell on Cruz?

Here's the answer: he poses no threat.

[sargon]

Cruz has a chance, Kasich needs to go home.

That is abject, naïve wishful thinking. Cruz's "firewall" was supposed to be the evangelical-heavy South.

Instead, Cruz got crushed in the South, because Trump did better with evangelicals, among other factors.

If Ted Cruz couldn't win a substantial number of Southern states and delegates, how in the world is he going to start winning even more delegates elsewhere?

Ted Cruz was a regional candidate who coiuldn't even dominate his own region!

Boy, talk about seeing the world through rose-colored glasses!

We're talking major fanboi territory if you think that Ted Cruz is going to suddenly start picking up big chunks of delegates in the Northeast, etc.

It's just not realistic. Stranger things haven't happened.

Denial isn't just a river in Egypt...

[Dead Dog]

What class is Trump, if not “donor class” . Those are his actions. Cruz aint getting any help from DC, he isnt the most hated man in the senate for playing the game.

[sargon]

I’m keeping a list of all the Trump cheerleaders here on FR

Make sure you put Jim Robinson, the site owner, at the top of your list...

[sargon]

Even Carson thought it was distasteful to endorse Trump.

And yet, he did it.

Ask yourself why...

[Duchess47]

Be sure you put my name on the list.

[sargon]

Either Cruz or Trump can still win enough delegates if the other one drops out. Neither can if they both stay in.

That's just utterly false.

You're allowing your candidate preference to overthrow your rationality.

Dream on...

[fooman]

Malzberg found out why and Trump supporters did not like it.

[sargon]

Cruz couldn't even get to 50% in his home state of Texas. That's not exactly a show of strength.

He's not going to beat Donald Trump in the the other regions of the country, even if it is 1-on-1.

Oh, and by the way, I don't know if anybody is aware of this or not, but it's not 1-on-1 yet, and with delusional Kasich in the picture, it doesn't look like it will be anytime soon.

So Trump-haters need to factor that into their optimistic math.

The grasping at straws from the Cruz camp is becoming more and more desperate around here...

[M. Thatcher]

The moment Soros unleashes his feral demons on Cruz, I’ll believe he’s a threat to the global left.