Posted on 02/20/2016 8:33:53 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump's landslide victory in South Carolina is a waking nightmare for the Republican Party.
By winning the South Carolina primary, Donald Trump demonstrated he can win anywhere.
By coming in second place, well behind Trump and barely (about 1,000 votes with 99 percent reporting) ahead of Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio demonstrated he will have a hard time winning anywhere.
Rubio, and basically the entire Republican Party establishment, marched into South Carolina determined to play up an expected third-place finish as a kind of triumph and a second-place finish as outright victory. Before any networks had called second place, Rubio delivered an exultant speech promising to win the GOP nomination.
There are reasons to credit this as more than just amusingly strained political vaudeville. By breaking out of the pack of also-rans, Rubio forced Jeb Bush out of the race. If he hoovers up nearly all of Bush's supporters, he stands to eclipse Cruz as the de facto leader of the non-Trump faction of the race. If John Kasich follows suit, after finishing below even Bush in South Carolina, Cruz may slip to a distant third. Viewed in that light, Rubio's performance in South Carolina might genuinely and enduringly change the race.
But this also is the most charitable way to interpret Rubio's distant second-place finish. Not because these are outlandish assumptions--they aren't. It's just that even if everything goes according to plan, Rubio will have proved fairly little in South Carolina.
By inundating Rubio's campaign with endorsements and money, Republican Party officials have effectively communicated that they'll attempt to thwart the will of the majority of GOP primary voters who support Trump and Cruz. And yet, despite all of that juice--and as badly as Cruz underperformed--Rubio can't count on Cruz fading rapidly. He definitely can't seem to come within spitting distance of Trump anywhere. And on top of all that, he's yet to endure a concerted Trump onslaught the way Cruz has, and Bush did--and both those candidates were harmed badly.
Though the South Carolina returns drove Bush from the race, it isn't a foregone conclusion that his supporters will overwhelmingly defect to Rubio. One of the most critical lessons of Iowa and New Hampshire is that Trump draws his support from across the party, including its mainstream. Many Bush supporters will presumably also defect to Kasich, who essentially skipped South Carolina and is pinning his ever-dim hopes on Northern primaries in Michigan and his home state of Ohio in March. Ben Carson's supporters will likewise scatter, rather than defect to a single candidate in unison (though Cruz stands to be the single largest beneficiary).
Notwithstanding all these inconvenient truths, Rubio will emerge from South Carolina a party favorite and a media darling.
The person with the most to fear from the results is Cruz. South Carolina was supposed to serve as a model for the Super Tuesday states he needs to win--and with the evangelical turnout as overwhelming as it was, he should've been able to do better than a dead heat for second, double digits behind Trump.
Had Rubio finished third--ideally a distant third--Cruz could have credibly continued portraying the primary as a two-man race between himself and Trump. But Trump is a popular favorite, and Rubio is an elite favorite. Cruz enjoy neither of those advantages. To the extent that he thrives, it is thanks to the loyalty of conservative ideologues and Christian conservatives (many of whom, again, are still supporting Carson, Rubio, and Trump). If their affinity for Cruz isn't robust enough to reliably outperform Rubio, his supporters will begin to question the logic of his candidacy. A fading Cruz would have little room to expand his appeal beyond right-wing purists (his concession speech tonight once again played up his "consistent conservative" bona fides), and his campaign would serve barely any purpose other than to deny Rubio a chance to challenge Trump one-on-one.
As time goes on, though, all the effort we expend examining the race for second place so granularly starts to seem like whistling past the graveyard. Trump probably could've won Iowa, and arguably should have. He won New Hampshire overwhelmingly. He just won South Carolina overwhelmingly, too, and is poised to do the same thing in Nevada's caucuses on Tuesday night. This is a waking nightmare for the Republican Party. Their played-up enthusiasm for Rubio can't disguise it.
If Jeb Bush. John Kasich, Ted Cruz, and Ben Carson Dropped out Marco would be in the lead!!! Jeb is gone.. Rubio will probably pick up his support!!!
Fire Island?
Folsom, San Francisco?
Who else do you think Jeb voters are going to back now? Cruz? Trump?
With Bush out, expect him to do better from here on out. I’m assuming his supporters will go Rubio. Whether it’ll be enough to matter anywhere, who knows.
Rubio needs to much better than he did tonight to pull that off.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Del.phtml
It’s tough to force a brokered convention.
Rubio is not the one forcing a brokered convention, he thinks he is going to win. But so does cruz and between them they are running nearly 50% and trump is nowhere near the majority. The gop is who wants a brokered convention, they own the party, make the rules and call the shots. They also know trump cannot beat hillary or bernie. To lose to a geriactic socialist or a senior citizen that is a compulsive liar is unconsionable so watch closely what starts coming out of the gop-e.
No. It’s time for ineligible Rubio to follow Jeb!
My point was that Rubio can only win on Fox because they seem to push him.
Yes, but even if you don’t get a majority, you get between 6 and 44 delegates just for winning the primary. For winning a Congressional District, you get at least one, maybe 2 or 3 delegates in most states.
The party apparatus controls about 3 delegates per delegation - in a handful of states, the entire delegation is uncommitted (Pennsylvania is most noteworthy).
Averaging just one delegate per congressional district and 15 at-large/bonus per delegation gets you the nomination.
You don’t understand, the party controls the outcome by the number of contestants in the contest.
Conservative tree house had a rather long article about this last year. Look it up and you will see how dishonest the entire process is this year. Surprised the heck out of me, being the naive fool that thought it was an honest and fair process.
If donnie does not have the 1237 when he goes to the convention he is done for good.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.