Posted on 01/25/2016 10:04:22 AM PST by GodGunsGuts
he results of a political poll are deep and complex. We tend to boil them down very simply though, because most of the time we’re polling two-way, winner-take-all elections. Those races are generally zero-sum games between the candidates.
The Iowa Caucuses however are as far from a two-way winner-take-all election as you can get. They’re a multi-way contest with proportional results. So the usual heuristics for reading polls are wrong. Contrary to rumor. Ted Cruz is not on the decline in Iowa, and has held steady for almost two months...
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
In before Trump v. Cruz!
Trump got a bump after calling for more ethanol subsidies.
It’s all about managing “EXPECTORATIONS”. :^)
It truly is.
It doesn’t matter who wins Iowa, it never does.
Cruz and Trump both just have to do well.
The media is just playing the expectation game.
They’d like to have Cruz and Trump both look like losers if they don’t get 100% of the vote... and anyone else look like a winner if he gets 1%!
Man, a scroll through the front page of RedState is like wading knee-deep through an endless sea of Cruz supporter tears.
We are the tsunami. That’s the Donald Trump of the near future trying to convince his last supporter to stay down there on the beach with him.
Red State doesn’t like the polls showing Trump in the lead in IA, so they are explaining them away.
Let’s face it, Trump got a boost from the question about Cruz’ eligibility, from the Palin endorsement, and from Branstad’s statement about not voting for Cruz. He may have also gotten a boost from the loony Glenn Beck’s endorsement of Cruz.
Red State can try to explain all that away, but it is what it is.
Trump is toast. His followers, demoralized by this reliable news story, will stay home.
If 1% of voters are Jeb supporters, they are not likely to all be grouped together and turn in 1% of the Caucus results. They will be filtered out.
I suspect that both Trump and Cruz will see their final numbers increase in the actual results. The question will be whether the non Cruz/Trump voters go more heavily for one candidate than the other.
I would be interested to know who is the stronger second-choice candidate, but we'll find out in about a week.
No, he was trying to get a bounce by pandering to the corrupt establishment ethanol lobby. Not only did he promise more of the same, he told them that taxpayers should have to pay for even higher ethanol mandates and subsidies. What an anti-establishment outsider Donald Trump is proving to be!!!
At least if they stay home they won’t be wasting their time!
Got Polls?
Movement conservatives are very sad that so many people are fooled by Trump.
I’m really surprised by how many Freepers are being fooled.
“Trump got a bump after calling for more ethanol subsidies.”
ethanol is the most worthless boondoggle imaginable. Bad for engines, bad for the environment, costly. A worthless bribe to Iowa farmers.
Movement conservatives are very sad that so many people are fooled by Trump.
I’m really surprised by how many Freepers are being fooled.
When 65.6% of the people in your own party want somebody else, I don't think you can call that a "tsunami."
The best Trump strategy would be to get on your knees and pray that this busload of candidates doesn't start dropping out. Because you know very well, after more exposure and buzz than has ever seen in the history of politics, if those people wanted Trump, they'd already be on his boat. Or in his helicopter.
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