I saw a tweet that Ted 
ruz is moving back to his native land if Trump wins.
Maybe you guys can get up a convoy and go with him.
Make sure your passport is updated. ;-)
Posted on 01/23/2016 12:00:09 PM PST by DoughtyOne
Donald Trump has opened up a marginal lead over Ted Cruz in the voting on the Free Republic Caucus thread. Yesterday's vote revealed a 51.88% to 45.31% preference for Trump.
The Free Republic Caucus (daily) has been up and running for four days now. The first day was the 20th, and we're in the midst of voting on the fourth day now. Over 300 people have participated each day.
The Free Republic Caucus has been instituted to determine what the preference of FReepers was. It is being run each day leading up to and into the Caucus and Primary season, so that we can determine how dynamics of the day are impacting people's preferences here.
Does daily news impact our preferences? Do endorsements impact our preferences? Are arguments on the forum affecting our preferences? Are candidates actions impacting our preferences?
There are five important dynamics to the Caucus daily results.
1. What are FReepers preferences
2. Is there a trend over time?
3. How many people are contributing to the consensus
4. How large is the voice on Free Republic.
5. What caliber of people are representatuve of this forum.
It would be nice if thousands were participating in this activity. Those who review what is going on here should be able to see a robust participation. The more participation, the louder our voice will be.
Results of the prior day's voting is linked at the bottom of the initial post starting each new day's Free Republic Caucus. Once you see that day's vote, you'll be able to move backward to see other day's votes.
Statistics of the vote are presented. A graph reveals what the trend has been.
Rules are applied evenly and fairly to both main groups of supporters on the forum. The thread has been regligously dedicated to being a place where folks can go and vote without distrubance and infighting.
May the best man win.
If there are any questions regarding the Free Republic caucus, please ask away.
Once again, to those who have participated by voting for your prefence and abiding by the rules, I think the forum has been very well represented by your actions. Thank you very much.
I understand your argument, but I want to voice an alternative view.Trump is now leading the polls in Iowa. Doesn't the bad weather impact him more? Does that help Cruz?
I want a daily consensus because I would run one or two Caucuses, and we'd be to February 2nd already.
I want almost a couple of weeks worth of days look before that.
I understand and agree. BTW, I've been voting Trump, so it wasn't that I was hinting at bias toward Trump or anyone for that matter. No, I am just worried that any external event might impact anyone at all.
Impact on participation from something like a winter blizzard is indeterminate anyway. People in New Hampshire and Vermont laugh at storms that typically shutdown the beltway and below! But then again, as long as the area still has electrical power, a storm might even increase participation. Indeterminate for sure.
No, I'm just pointing out that at small sample sizes, *any* event has some impact and even "no event" ( normal work week, school exams, medical appointments ) has different impact between depending on day of the week and between given granularities ( daily, weekly, etc ). That's all.
God bless you for mustering the required time and energy to manage this. I appreciate anybody who has the ability to focus on something and follow through on commitments.
You’re welcome. I may try to keep up with it, but no guarantees. Use the coding whenever you want to. [I was lazy and copied most of the coding from one of Lonely Bull’s posts. :-) ]
Thank you for your additional comments.
I try to think of it impacting the supporters of two groups equally. If Cruz is in the lead, it silences his people. If Trump is trailing, it silences his who are tying to get their voices heard.
If Trump is ahead, his people can’t argue their points. And if Cruz trails, it hampers his folks getting the world out.
There pluses and minuses to both.
I may not be seeing it reasonably, but you can others can set me straight. No a snide comment at all. I appreciated your response and found it reasoned.
Great.
I’ll probably build a spread sheet model like it, and make a graphic out of it each day.
I've talked with you before. I believe you and a fair amount of Freepers will start yelling if Trump turns. But I also believe there are a bunch who are firmly dug in, no matter what. If Trump wins and doesn't veer too far to the left during the General, I could vote for him.
That being said I think we are at a constitutional crossroads. The next President is going to probably choose several Supreme Court Justices. In the past few years Conservatism has lost just about every ruling. We are changing as a society. We are being forced to act and accept things that are contrary to our beliefs. If we continue down the road of Judicial activism we are lost. I simply trust Cruz to make court picks that practice Judicial restraint more than I trust the other guys.
The interesting thing about the results is that there is almost NO support for anyone but Cruz and Trump.
“51 to 45 is not a “narrow lead†it’s a substantial lead.”
Depends on the margin of error. If it’s +/- 3% it could be tied at 48 or it could be 54 - 41 then it would be substantial.
Great idea, DoughtyOne. FR at its finest BUMP!
I agree with you. A lot of work went in to putting it together, and continued efforts calculating the results each day.
That’s a very good suggestion.
Okay, the SCOTUS picks are important. There’s no getting around it. I can see concern with Trump there. I don’t have one, but I understand others who do.
Cruz was fired up to support Justice John Roberts. He knew him and praised him as having one of the best Constitutional minds in the nation. Roberts proceeded to make one of the worst decisions in our nations history.
There may be others that set up worse situations, but it certain was one of the worst in my lifetime.
When Trump was asked how he would pick justices, he said he would get some well respected Conservatives to help him come up with the selection.
You can read what you want into that. It is an important thing for me too. I just don’t see Cruz has being absolutely better. Maybe yes, maybe no.
I cannot discount the Robert’s backing like others do.
If it would be bad for Trump to back terrible judges and he should be dinged for it, then the same rule should apply to Cruz.
I think we eliminate the also rans in quick fashion. It’s nailing down the final selection that get very difficult.
There are good arguments on both sides.
With ours, there is no margin of error.
It’s 100% what people voted.
We can’t gauge anything else.
Thank you. I appreciate it.
I really do think the unsung people are those that vote by following the rules.
Look at all of them. That’s a thing of beauty.
And many thanks for all of your hard work on this, day after day!
Thank you NoPardons.
If Cruz did that I would be shocked and dismayed. It's because I believe Cruz loves the truth. It's not because I don't like Trump.
DoughtyOne, I appreciate the idea, if others are interested in participating, but I don’t participate in the FR caucus.
I do not like the blood letting conflict on FR between Cruz supporters and Trump supporters. I think we should be much more neutral on which of these candidates wins the nomination. That GOPe has gone full tilt in National Review to show their butts, is enough for me. That group has not had a conservative idea in decades. Which is why we are in the mess we are in. We have no conservative intellectuals - only globalists.
I find myself wanting to defend Cruz when he is attacked or defend Trump when he is attacked... The attacks of so petty. Both of them have their pluses and minuses. Looking at the minuses, they both suck and looking at the pluses, they both could help the country. In other words, both suck to some degree or another and both would be heros to some degree or another. But both piss off GOPe (the uniparty) and that is a good thing.
FR is a place to rally. I think we should rally for Trump and Cruz. Which ever one is ahead, I am for. I know the risks of both and I know the potential of both.
I saw a tweet that Ted ruz is moving back to his native land if Trump wins.
Maybe you guys can get up a convoy and go with him.
Make sure your passport is updated. ;-)
An honest question met with sarcasm and scorn...
How times have changed on FR.
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