Posted on 01/21/2016 3:05:15 PM PST by TBBT
A lot of differences in these polls are based on how tightly polls are screening voters. Looser screens help Bernie & Trump.
For instance, the CNN poll implies a turnout of about 320K in the Iowa GOP caucus, versus ~120K in 2012.
There are sometimes reasons to prefer looser screens. It can be hard to predict who will vote. Also, self-selection in who responds to poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...
Careful about the polls. As Rush notes often - MSM often produces polls to drive an outcome/narrative, not to report on one.
FReepers used to know this.
Cruz still leads Monmouth by 2, but that oversamples Evangelicals. If they turn out strongly, it could be a big night for Cruz
Just looking at internals for Iowa monmouth polls:
28.6% of Trump supporters list say they have no transportation compared to 0% for Cruz supporters.
Cruz leads 27-25.
Off to check the other for internals.
People forget only 4% NH say they will never for Cruz, same as June. DT has grown to 30% will never vote Trump.
Looks like a lot of new voters will be turning out in Iowa.
Advantage: Trump
Ok, I mixed my internals/ the ones listed for NH are NH, the transportation numbers are Iowa.
CNN poll invents more voters than they have viewers. Not hard to do actually.
The guys at 538 have a great polls rating page. Comes in handy when considering the latest so-called data.
Ok, that explains why that poll was so far out there.
Make that Pollster* rating page.
“the CNN poll implies a turnout of about 320K in the Iowa GOP caucus, versus ~120K in 2012”
So Trump crushes because the electorate might triple?
We’ll see....
“CNN poll implies a turnout of about 320K in the Iowa GOP caucus”
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How is that even possible? Isn’t that the whole adult population Iowa? Or is that New Hampshire? Which is smaller in population? I forget......
Cruz still leads Monmouth by 2, but that oversamples Evangelicals. If they turn out strongly, it could be a big night for CruzWhat Monmouth poll? I haven't seen on from them in Iowa since early December.
Are you talking about the KBUR poll?
Just looking at internals for Iowa monmouth polls:
28.6% of Trump supporters list say they have no transportation compared to 0% for Cruz supporters.
Cruz leads 27-25.
Off to check the other for internals.
People forget only 4% NH say they will never for Cruz, same as June. DT has grown to 30% will never vote Trump.
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Trump has arranged to shuttle those without transportation.
The turnout might be 150K on a wild night. That is tops. 320K? Even 200K is dreaming. That poll is just stupid.
Headline should read “Trump’s lead in ORC poll declines from +13 to +11.” Check the last time they polled, his lead was 13. Cruz will win in Iowa, and I don’t even think it will be close.
the last time only 4% of the iowa population voted in the caucus
that is travesty
it is why they tend to pick losers
If 320,000 show up for the caucuses vs 120,00 in 2012, then what’s the reason for the incredible increase? CNN doesn’t say but someone or some thing is the driver.
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