Posted on 11/07/2015 8:42:52 AM PST by cotton1706
We have exhaustively outlined the GOPe road map to insure the nomination of Jeb Bush for the Republican Presidential Candidate in 2016. While the road map is rather complex, it essentially boils down to a strategy of small accumulated delegate pickups using 15-20% electoral support.
GOP candidates 3
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Candidates George Pataki and Jim Gilmore have already been disqualified from the Alabama Primary, yet they remain in the race. Only a handful of candidates (Bush, Trump, Cruz and to a lesser extent Rubio & Fiorina) have efforts underway to qualify for ballot placement in all of the states with primary dates prior to April 1st 2016.
Donald Trump is the only candidate currently qualified for Virginia and time is running short for a rather complex qualification process. Bush and Cruz are also expected to qualify (5,000 signatures w/ 200 from each congressional district).
Kasich and Fiorina are focused on New Hampshire; Chris Christie also appears to be making an effort in New Hampshire. However, nothing exists beyond Iowa for Jindal and Carson; and Illinois/Virginia are extremely complex qualification processes.
Again, this begs the question, why are all of the candidates without ground operations and infrastructure running?
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
Senator Cruz’s supporters were saying they wanted Jeb to stay in the race, to stop his (three or so) supporters from going to Rubio. That’s maybe the dumbest idea they ever had, well, almost as dumb as working with Obama on a trade deal.
Not bragging (much) but it was obvious that this was the Bush strategy. I called it the “NASCAR Strategy” to ‘draft’ off a favorite son in each of the large electoral states. In effect, the strategy is to finish 2nd or 3rd in these states and grab delegates. After a couple months he would have the most delegates by far. But Trump & Carson are throwing a wrench into that strategy
>>Officially, it’s Rule 40 in the RNC handbook and it states that any candidate for president “shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states†before their name is presented for nomination at the national convention. <<
Exactly, which 8 states does Yeb win? So, how can his name be presented for nomination?
Trump turns this strategy on its ear and makes it work for us instead of them. Trump has tremendous tremendous appeal in blue states. Far more than Jeb will ever have. The RNC has weighted the primaries against their own interests without even knowing it.
They still don’t know what to do about it. Trump has the south covered as well as the north. I think their goose is cooked and all they can do at this point is hope that Trump takes himself out. But even if he does, who is their alternative?
Carson is the flash in the pan that everyone expected Trump would be and Rubio is an amnesty shill who looks like the kid from a Frosted Mini Wheats commercial. It’s too late for anyone else to get in.
The only wild card is Cruz, whom I expect will have his day in the sun as Carson fades. He, however, has not demonstrated the crossover appeal between blue states and red states to beat the rigged GOP game.
When Trump first got in, my first thought was that by the end of this, the GOPe was going to be so screwed that they would be begging for Ted Cruz to win. That may still come to fruition, though I don’t believe they’ll be successful even in that.
He’ll be lucky if he finishes 8th in 1 state. Maybe he read it wrong.
This kind of stuff have been going on in one form or another since the Tammany Hall days. It is shocking that a genius like Nate Silver just discovered it. /S
As a supporter of Jeb continuing to run ads that harm him because they help voters to know who he is, I still stand by my conclusion. If Jeb drops out, the establishment will get behind qualifying Rubio for every primary and pumping dollars his way. I'm happy to see the clock run out on that pro-Amnesty traitor, and I'm happy to see the crossover votes split between Jeb, Christie, and Rubio for as long as possible.
Looks like Jeb had it backwards.
Win the nomination, lose the general.
And he will lose the general.
In my more pessimistic moments, I think that if Trump looks like he’s going to be the nominee, and I think that’s likely, either Trump will be dealt with via Banana Republic methods or they’ll simply find a reason to call off the election.
Yep - he’s a little late on the take....Funny thing is, carnival men like him and the Frank guy who runs the panel interviews after the debates and making bank. It’s all about entertainment for these showmen.
I spoke with a Florida GOPe insider the other day. She is planning a seminar for us on just how the FLGOP will try to steal the election...I will report once I find out!
You are correct...Bush cannot beat hillary.
“I think their goose is cooked and all they can do at this point is hope that Trump takes himself out. But even if he does, who is their alternative?”
Exactly. If they somehow figured out how to shove Joyful Turtle Bush down our throats, there would be civil war at this point. And I don’t see a path for Rubio after having read some of his personal financial peccadilloes.
Carson is imploding as we speak, there’s a weirdness factor hiding there.
So, it will come down to Trump or Cruz. And what I’m predicting is a Trump/Cruz ticket.
This is all very interesting. But I would like to see some blue state polls where Jeb is looking good before I start losing sleep.
Can GOPe deliver the folowing states to anyone it chooses?
MA,RI,CT,NY,NJ,DE,IL?
Can the GOPe change delegate selection rules? In many cases the national committeeman, committeewoman, chair, Sens and certain congressmen are guaranteed delgate status regardless of any primary or caucus. In addition, the RNC and state orgs normally reserve additional delegate positions for big donors and celebrities. Would anyone deny delegate status to an ex-president or VP?
Can the RNC change the convention rules? They’ve done it in the past.
In short, maybe 60% of delegates are chosen in primaries and caucus situations and 40% are not. The convention winner only needs a chunk of the 60% if he has almost all of the 40%.
“As a supporter of Jeb continuing to run ads that harm him because they help voters to know who he is, I still stand by my conclusion. If Jeb drops out, the establishment will get behind qualifying Rubio for every primary and pumping dollars his way. I’m happy to see the clock run out on that pro-Amnesty traitor, and I’m happy to see the crossover votes split between Jeb, Christie, and Rubio for as long as possible.”
Yes I agree — in the interests of not seeing the GOPe consolidate its support around one candidate in the near future, I’m all for Jeb hanging around till March 15 or so. There is a slight risk that he will turn things around and actually contend for the nomination, but in my view, that risk is minimal.
Jeb is simply a horrible candidate that inspires virtually no one. He has a small base of support because of his last name and general respect some people have for the Bush family (my brother is among this crowd), but I can’t see him extending much beyond this base.
The nice thing is I think Jeb has too much pride, too competitive a spirit or feels too much of an obligation to stick it out that he’s not likely to fold anytime soon. It is smart strategy on the part of Cruz to encourage him to stay in.
Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Oreogon, .....
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