Posted on 10/19/2015 9:38:32 AM PDT by AAABEST
The above graphic begs the question: Where is News Corp (Fox and the WSJ) they getting their data from? The info contained herein will establish that Trump's support is vast and solid, and that all available polls and empirical data from virtually any source (other than the incestuous NY/DC establishment green zone) shows Trump far outperforming his competitors both nationally and on a state-by-state basis. All indications are that Trump is set to win all of the early states, super Tuesday, the "big" delegate states and by extension the nomination. Beyond simple "who wins" polling, there are further essential indicators that clearly show that the GOP candidacy is his to lose.
The News Corp/Fox leadership and much of the staff is on record as openly despising Trump. The Politico article, "Wall Street's latest panic: Trump could win", highlights how the donor-class (i.e. Wall Street influence mongers on Manhattan's lower east side) absolutely loathe the idea of a Trump presidency. The outlier of outliers, the Investors Business Daily poll (another periodical serving Wall Street clients), is wildly out of line with any poll taken anywhere at any time, to the point of being outrageous.
According to all available data, these New York City/Washington DC pollsters are either engaging in deceptive polling or their polling voters in some foreign country. Regardless, their polling is simply not credible by any standard. Here's why:
EARLY STATE SWEEP
According to RCP, Donald Trump will take all early primary states leading into Super Tuesday.
Despite a $1million in ads paid for by the virulently anti-Trump group Club for Growth, Trump still leads there within the margin of error. Incidentally Trump had turned down a $1 million donation request from CFG. The Donald is ahead in the Hawkeye State by 5.5 points. His mostly yet-to-be-launched ground game has been described by NBC News as "formidable." It most certainly is unmatched by any of his primary rivals. He has hired a paid staff of twelve - the largest of any candidate - and his main man on the ground is a fellow by the name of Chuck Laudner. Laudner's Iowa connections go back to the year 2000, when he helped Steve Forbes take second in the primaries. Laudner was the executive director of the GOP from 2007 to 2008, then in 2012 worked the state for Rick Santorum, who went on to win the caucus there outright. Having also served as Iowan Congressman Steve King's Chief of Staff, Laudner will have the connections and Trump's money to make things happen. He has been described as "a deity among conservative grass roots."
Further, Trump leads handily in the remaining three early states, the second being New Hampshire, where he's ahead by 13 points despite Jeb Bush recently spending (or wasting) $4 million on ad buys there. The most recent poll in the Granite State, commissioned by Gravis, has Trump over the 30 percent range, leading his nearest competitor Ben Carson by a seemingly insurmountable19 points. Trump was the first candidate in the state to set up a paid staff operation.
South Carolina, the 3rd primary state, has Trump up by over 15 points. He has employed former South Carolina state house majority leader James Merrill as the campaign's state director.
Nevada, the 4th early state has Trump up between 13 and 16 points. There he's hired Koch Brothers VIP Charles Munoz as his state director. Interestingly, a poll taken in July had Trump with a commanding lead, 31.4%, among Nevadan Hispanics, eclipsing 2nd place Scott Walker (15%), who has since dropped from the race. According to the latest CNN/ORC poll of Nevadan Republicans, 67% think he is best on the economy compared to 7% for 2nd-best Fiorina. 34% see him as best at foreign policy and 46% best at dealing with ISIS, which is 20 and 33 points, respectively, ahead of Rubio. 47% believe Trump will win the nomination and, not surprisingly, he crushes all his rivals combined on illegal immigration at 55%.
SUPER TUESDAY AND THE SOUTH
Trump, a wise-crackin' yankee from New York, dominates in every southern state where polling has been made available. The most recent Gravis poll has him leading by 21 points in Alabama, a Super Tuesday state where he recently drew a rock festival sized crowd of 30,000. He even bests senator Ted Cruz by 5 points on his home range in Texas, another super Tuesday state that claims the 2nd most delegates (155). In Georgia, where Trump recently hosted a capacity rally in Norcross, Trump's RCP average is up by 11 points. He's already hired state directors in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Regarding Virginia, by December 15, each candidate must have 5,000 signatures from registered Republican voters, to include 200 (GOP) signatures from each congressional district. Notably, Trump is the only candidate aside from Jeb Bush who has even begun that process.
Half of the dozen Super Tuesday primaries will happen in the south. It's obvious that Trump is not relying simply on third party polls and appeal to win the day. If he sticks to his current game-plan and maintains his southern charm, Super Tuesday is set to be a game changer.
THE BIG DELEGATE STATES
In California, USC Dornsife/LA Times poll has Donald Trump leading by 6%. At 172, California has the highest number of delegates in the country.
Trump is solidly out front in Florida (11.4 points ahead via RCP), despite the state being home to both Marco Rubio, a sitting Florida senator and Jeb Bush, a former two term Florida governor. Florida is third in delgates with 99.
At the time of this writing, there are no recent, reliable polls coming from the state of New York, but given that Trump was born, raised and operates his business there, it's safe to say that he would likely poll very high or take the Empire State altogether. New York has the 4th highest number of delegates. According to polling data available to date, Trump is set to take California, Texas and Florida. If his home state follows suit, which is likely, Trump will wind up with nearly 1/4 of all available GOP delegates in those states alone.
Incredibly, according to the reputable PPP, Trump leads even among Hispanics in Florida. He trounces former Florida governor Jeb Bush (who has taken to speaking Spanish at his rallies) and even leads Marco Rubio, who is a Hispanic Floridian himself.
INEVITABILITY, ENTHUSIASM AND THE "WOW" INDICATORS
Enthusiasm matters. In fact, it matters a lot. No candidate comes close to attracting the crowds Trump does. He packs nearly every venue he visits to capacity, attracting thousands or even tens of thousands of enthusiastic fans to his public appearances. He often is compelled to make a second showing for those waiting outside who weren't able to get inside due to fire codes or tickets selling out.
Trump is polling higher than his primary competitors in their own states. It is shown above that The Donald beats both Rubio and Bush in Florida. He tops Cruz in Texas and Fiorina in California. According to polling released October 15, he beats Chris Christie in his home state of New Jersey by 20 points. According to RCP, Trump is ahead of Carson in his home state of Michigan, though to be fair, one of the two polls averaged was taken before the Carson "surge."
When first or second GOP voter choices are considered, Trump is at 48%. In other words, if the voter's 1st choice is knocked out of the running, Trump gets the nomination.
According to a NYT/CBS poll, (39%) GOP primary voters believe that Donald Trump will be the party's nominee. Stalwart strategists, who at first predicted Trump's demise, are now, changing their tunes. GOP soothsayer Alex Castellanos is one. According to a Byron York piece, Castellanos admits "I've resisted the idea that Donald Trump could and would become the Republican nominee... Unhappily, I've changed my mind." He sees a hardening of support for Trump. For those who insist there's plenty of time for another candidate to dismantle The Donald, Castellanos warns that "time is running out" and that "this race is solidifying and there isn't much time left for it to change."
TRADITIONAL MEDIA MASTER
Until now, Trump has spent only $4 million campaigning over the last quarter, a pittance compared to what his office seeking counterparts have had to spend for far less spectacular results. Jeb spent that in New Hampshire alone, only to watch Trump continue to trounce him in the state's polls. While most campaign managers lobby media producers to get their candidates air time, talking heads of all stripes line up for interviews with Trump, who's only travel time and expense is what's needed to ride the escalator to the designated interview area in his New York headquarters. Nearly every TV appearance featuring The Donald - be it a guest appearance on a late night show or a debate - dramatically increases ratings (and ad revenue) for the hosting network. It also increases the free exposure Trump gets, allowing him to save his ample war chest for rainier days.
SOCIAL MEDIA DOMINANCE
As the time of this article, Trump claims 4.6 million Twitter followers. That's over four times the number of Marco Rubio's 902,000 and well over 10 times Jeb Bush's 345,000. Trump even bested the Democratic primary candidates on Twitter during their own debate, gaining more followers than any of the candidates participating - four times as many followers than Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton.
Trump enjoys over 4 million likes on his Facebook page, which is nearly 10 fold over Carly Fiorina's 489,000. Bush's page has 285,000 likes by comparison.
IN CONCLUSION
Despite the false, wishful narrative, Trump's candidacy is not any "summer fling." By any objective standard, he's been well ahead of all his competitors for several months running. He isn't a "one hit wonder" and his campaign doesn't mimic that of Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Herman Caine or any of the others his detractors enjoy comparing him to. He hasn't "plateaued" and (unless he enjoys wasting his time and money setting up an intricate campaign organization) he shows no signs whatsoever of doing anything but taking the race right to the finish line - where it seems that he'll cross as the victor. He has the best ground game, the highest poll numbers, the most voter enthusiasm, the most money, the best people, the most charisma and the most impressive early indicators of any of his GOP rivals. He is not merely 1 point ahead or (laughably) any points behind any candidate, in any poll, in any state or anywhere else at any time since he first announced his candidacy.
The kapos of News Corp, the Republican establishment, the Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street are desperate and no longer credible. To their chagrin, it seems the people may actually choose their own candidate this time.
Thus is how it should be.
Carsons poll numbers are fake. The Carson surge was made up out of whole cloth a few weeks after the first debate in an effort to get people who like to back a winner to believe he could take out Trump. The idea was to split the “non-establishment candidate” vote to make room for Jeb to slide back in.
Once the belief was planted, people started saying they’d vote for Carson but I’m not buying it’s because they support him. I think they’re bandwagon jumpers who don’t want to jump on Trumps bandwagon. I also don’t see people disenfranchised with Jeb going to Carson and then BACK to Jeb.
Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, hear the lamentations of their women.- Ghengis Khan
Those mentioned in your post are the ones that gave us McClain and Romney.
And don’t I know it!!
In addition to yellow journalism, the establishment supporters also have paid activists ($10 to $18 per hour) working the comment sections of the internet. These paid trolls attempt to undermine discussions by inserting disinformation, derailing thread topics, or inserting enough comments to prevent discussion from occurring.
Yes. And this is true of other subjects than politics.
The MSM like to use national data because it dilutes the conservative support of the red states. The GOPe does the same. Good states polls with a reasonable sample rate is the best indication of support not only in the state but among that party’s base. If the state polls are reflective of state support then this should be nearly over.
The liberals do the same in blue states. Huge majorities in California, New York, Illionois etc increase their national numbers and influence media coverage and the public at large. If the MSM reported polling by state one would see it is actually closer than it appears in national polls between Republicans and Democrats. The polling depresses the turnout especially for republicans in the west coast states who believe their vote really does not matter even though it could be critical at the local and state level.
what it actually says is that my money on Dr Ben is still a good bet
I’ve been asked to advise folks here at FR that they are using the WRONG donation page for Trump! The scammers (Yes, they are even collecting donations...see: http://towncriernews.blogspot.com/.../gop-lobbyistscon... )are out thick and collecting Millions off his name fooling his supporters. This is the thread: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3350354/posts.... This is the ONLY correct link for donations and to buy gear/signs: https://secure.donaldjtrump.com/donations/make-a-donation/
Reuters:
Carson: = :^(
Great summary.
The MSM, including Fox, are in absolute meltdown mode. They can’t believe the RINO establishment is going to be wiped off the map.
The Chamber of Commerce has a $100 million war chest to defeat Tea Party candidates. Are they going to hand it to Hillary?
and Sarah had thousands lining up to see her....and to what end?.....
Precisely and the Fox News and WSJ polls are the only two Ailes pimps on the news
They throw the whole thing off being outliers
Toss them and Trumps average is +7
Fox is the main tool in GOPe Arsenal to kill the Hair
It’s not the same comparison
Both Levin and Rush dissected that oft touted GOPe claim
Oh yes believe me
They will find a woman somewhere to say salacious stuff about Trump
He like me loves the ladies
They can be found like when he had Marla in Aspen same time as Ivana
A multitasker the Donald
I that’s where the marriage ground to a halt
Sarah teased and flared off after that crazy book....though I’m not sure was ever gonna run....it was way late by then
Trump is running and campaigning like a mad man
Big difference
Palin drew huge crowds as VP candidate and decent crowds in defeat
I paid 750 for wife and I to see her in 2009 at Tea Party convention
She and Trump are apples and oranges
I actually think he’s got more under his belt but she’s stronger ideologically no question
Umm.. let me guess.. they're manufacturing and manipulating it? /s
‘They will find a woman somewhere to say salacious stuff about Trump.’
She would need either a blue dress or photos. Otherwise Trump will sue her till he dies, and task his heirs with suing her after he’s gone. Even the blue dress might not be enough; she’d have to prove she was the one wearing it...at the time.
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