Posted on 10/19/2015 9:38:32 AM PDT by AAABEST
The above graphic begs the question: Where is News Corp (Fox and the WSJ) they getting their data from? The info contained herein will establish that Trump's support is vast and solid, and that all available polls and empirical data from virtually any source (other than the incestuous NY/DC establishment green zone) shows Trump far outperforming his competitors both nationally and on a state-by-state basis. All indications are that Trump is set to win all of the early states, super Tuesday, the "big" delegate states and by extension the nomination. Beyond simple "who wins" polling, there are further essential indicators that clearly show that the GOP candidacy is his to lose.
The News Corp/Fox leadership and much of the staff is on record as openly despising Trump. The Politico article, "Wall Street's latest panic: Trump could win", highlights how the donor-class (i.e. Wall Street influence mongers on Manhattan's lower east side) absolutely loathe the idea of a Trump presidency. The outlier of outliers, the Investors Business Daily poll (another periodical serving Wall Street clients), is wildly out of line with any poll taken anywhere at any time, to the point of being outrageous.
According to all available data, these New York City/Washington DC pollsters are either engaging in deceptive polling or their polling voters in some foreign country. Regardless, their polling is simply not credible by any standard. Here's why:
EARLY STATE SWEEP
According to RCP, Donald Trump will take all early primary states leading into Super Tuesday.
Despite a $1million in ads paid for by the virulently anti-Trump group Club for Growth, Trump still leads there within the margin of error. Incidentally Trump had turned down a $1 million donation request from CFG. The Donald is ahead in the Hawkeye State by 5.5 points. His mostly yet-to-be-launched ground game has been described by NBC News as "formidable." It most certainly is unmatched by any of his primary rivals. He has hired a paid staff of twelve - the largest of any candidate - and his main man on the ground is a fellow by the name of Chuck Laudner. Laudner's Iowa connections go back to the year 2000, when he helped Steve Forbes take second in the primaries. Laudner was the executive director of the GOP from 2007 to 2008, then in 2012 worked the state for Rick Santorum, who went on to win the caucus there outright. Having also served as Iowan Congressman Steve King's Chief of Staff, Laudner will have the connections and Trump's money to make things happen. He has been described as "a deity among conservative grass roots."
Further, Trump leads handily in the remaining three early states, the second being New Hampshire, where he's ahead by 13 points despite Jeb Bush recently spending (or wasting) $4 million on ad buys there. The most recent poll in the Granite State, commissioned by Gravis, has Trump over the 30 percent range, leading his nearest competitor Ben Carson by a seemingly insurmountable19 points. Trump was the first candidate in the state to set up a paid staff operation.
South Carolina, the 3rd primary state, has Trump up by over 15 points. He has employed former South Carolina state house majority leader James Merrill as the campaign's state director.
Nevada, the 4th early state has Trump up between 13 and 16 points. There he's hired Koch Brothers VIP Charles Munoz as his state director. Interestingly, a poll taken in July had Trump with a commanding lead, 31.4%, among Nevadan Hispanics, eclipsing 2nd place Scott Walker (15%), who has since dropped from the race. According to the latest CNN/ORC poll of Nevadan Republicans, 67% think he is best on the economy compared to 7% for 2nd-best Fiorina. 34% see him as best at foreign policy and 46% best at dealing with ISIS, which is 20 and 33 points, respectively, ahead of Rubio. 47% believe Trump will win the nomination and, not surprisingly, he crushes all his rivals combined on illegal immigration at 55%.
SUPER TUESDAY AND THE SOUTH
Trump, a wise-crackin' yankee from New York, dominates in every southern state where polling has been made available. The most recent Gravis poll has him leading by 21 points in Alabama, a Super Tuesday state where he recently drew a rock festival sized crowd of 30,000. He even bests senator Ted Cruz by 5 points on his home range in Texas, another super Tuesday state that claims the 2nd most delegates (155). In Georgia, where Trump recently hosted a capacity rally in Norcross, Trump's RCP average is up by 11 points. He's already hired state directors in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Regarding Virginia, by December 15, each candidate must have 5,000 signatures from registered Republican voters, to include 200 (GOP) signatures from each congressional district. Notably, Trump is the only candidate aside from Jeb Bush who has even begun that process.
Half of the dozen Super Tuesday primaries will happen in the south. It's obvious that Trump is not relying simply on third party polls and appeal to win the day. If he sticks to his current game-plan and maintains his southern charm, Super Tuesday is set to be a game changer.
THE BIG DELEGATE STATES
In California, USC Dornsife/LA Times poll has Donald Trump leading by 6%. At 172, California has the highest number of delegates in the country.
Trump is solidly out front in Florida (11.4 points ahead via RCP), despite the state being home to both Marco Rubio, a sitting Florida senator and Jeb Bush, a former two term Florida governor. Florida is third in delgates with 99.
At the time of this writing, there are no recent, reliable polls coming from the state of New York, but given that Trump was born, raised and operates his business there, it's safe to say that he would likely poll very high or take the Empire State altogether. New York has the 4th highest number of delegates. According to polling data available to date, Trump is set to take California, Texas and Florida. If his home state follows suit, which is likely, Trump will wind up with nearly 1/4 of all available GOP delegates in those states alone.
Incredibly, according to the reputable PPP, Trump leads even among Hispanics in Florida. He trounces former Florida governor Jeb Bush (who has taken to speaking Spanish at his rallies) and even leads Marco Rubio, who is a Hispanic Floridian himself.
INEVITABILITY, ENTHUSIASM AND THE "WOW" INDICATORS
Enthusiasm matters. In fact, it matters a lot. No candidate comes close to attracting the crowds Trump does. He packs nearly every venue he visits to capacity, attracting thousands or even tens of thousands of enthusiastic fans to his public appearances. He often is compelled to make a second showing for those waiting outside who weren't able to get inside due to fire codes or tickets selling out.
Trump is polling higher than his primary competitors in their own states. It is shown above that The Donald beats both Rubio and Bush in Florida. He tops Cruz in Texas and Fiorina in California. According to polling released October 15, he beats Chris Christie in his home state of New Jersey by 20 points. According to RCP, Trump is ahead of Carson in his home state of Michigan, though to be fair, one of the two polls averaged was taken before the Carson "surge."
When first or second GOP voter choices are considered, Trump is at 48%. In other words, if the voter's 1st choice is knocked out of the running, Trump gets the nomination.
According to a NYT/CBS poll, (39%) GOP primary voters believe that Donald Trump will be the party's nominee. Stalwart strategists, who at first predicted Trump's demise, are now, changing their tunes. GOP soothsayer Alex Castellanos is one. According to a Byron York piece, Castellanos admits "I've resisted the idea that Donald Trump could and would become the Republican nominee... Unhappily, I've changed my mind." He sees a hardening of support for Trump. For those who insist there's plenty of time for another candidate to dismantle The Donald, Castellanos warns that "time is running out" and that "this race is solidifying and there isn't much time left for it to change."
TRADITIONAL MEDIA MASTER
Until now, Trump has spent only $4 million campaigning over the last quarter, a pittance compared to what his office seeking counterparts have had to spend for far less spectacular results. Jeb spent that in New Hampshire alone, only to watch Trump continue to trounce him in the state's polls. While most campaign managers lobby media producers to get their candidates air time, talking heads of all stripes line up for interviews with Trump, who's only travel time and expense is what's needed to ride the escalator to the designated interview area in his New York headquarters. Nearly every TV appearance featuring The Donald - be it a guest appearance on a late night show or a debate - dramatically increases ratings (and ad revenue) for the hosting network. It also increases the free exposure Trump gets, allowing him to save his ample war chest for rainier days.
SOCIAL MEDIA DOMINANCE
As the time of this article, Trump claims 4.6 million Twitter followers. That's over four times the number of Marco Rubio's 902,000 and well over 10 times Jeb Bush's 345,000. Trump even bested the Democratic primary candidates on Twitter during their own debate, gaining more followers than any of the candidates participating - four times as many followers than Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton.
Trump enjoys over 4 million likes on his Facebook page, which is nearly 10 fold over Carly Fiorina's 489,000. Bush's page has 285,000 likes by comparison.
IN CONCLUSION
Despite the false, wishful narrative, Trump's candidacy is not any "summer fling." By any objective standard, he's been well ahead of all his competitors for several months running. He isn't a "one hit wonder" and his campaign doesn't mimic that of Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Herman Caine or any of the others his detractors enjoy comparing him to. He hasn't "plateaued" and (unless he enjoys wasting his time and money setting up an intricate campaign organization) he shows no signs whatsoever of doing anything but taking the race right to the finish line - where it seems that he'll cross as the victor. He has the best ground game, the highest poll numbers, the most voter enthusiasm, the most money, the best people, the most charisma and the most impressive early indicators of any of his GOP rivals. He is not merely 1 point ahead or (laughably) any points behind any candidate, in any poll, in any state or anywhere else at any time since he first announced his candidacy.
The kapos of News Corp, the Republican establishment, the Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street are desperate and no longer credible. To their chagrin, it seems the people may actually choose their own candidate this time.
Thus is how it should be.
Matches their journalism..............................
Thank you for posting this. I have been watching the RCP ave for a little while. It seems Carson & Trump have gotten much closer, IIRC.
Trump certainly is polling well. So was Rudy Giuliani 8 years ago.
As I have watched the Poll tightening on RCP average and watch Trump rallies and see nothing like that for other canidates I keep thinking something is rotten in Denmark...cause Trump popularity is not peaking or declining yet Carsons numbers go up without corresponding increase in attention to his rallies or any other factors. We are being manipulated again I fear.
Freegards
LEX
good article.
thx for posting. ‘Pod
“The kapos of News Corp, the Republican establishment, the Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street are desperate and no longer credible”
LOL......may they live on antacid, and get no sleep.
The RCP site is run by a bunch of leftists who hand pick the polls they use.
Where is Ipsos/Reuters? Where is Morning Consult?
Why is that IBD garbage poll that shows Carson ahead by 6 points included in the average?
They also mix up old polls with new polls.
The end result is an average that is completely useless.
This does not explain Carson’s Iowa caucus or national numbers. anyone?
He tops Cruz in TexasDoesn't matter because Cruz says he'll get all the Trump supporters.
You know, because Cruz's plans on taxes, economy, immigration, jobs, trade (other than adopt Obama's deal) etc are so much better than Trump's....Oh wait, other than should've, would've could've he has no plans.
I agree. This is the same old “divide and conquer” strategy from the GOPe. See this every election year. Try and get the Conservatives fighting among themselves so the GOPe candidate slips thur to the nomination.
There is some really bad news in those numbers for the GOPe. Carson supporters are basically people who would vote for Trump but do not trust him yet. Trump keeps doing what he is doing, looking like a winner, and he will peel off a large number for voters from other candidates as the “Bandwagon” effect kicks in.
This is Trumps election to lose now.
Remember the fox poll during Bush vs Kerry?
The sunday before the election it showed Kerry with a FIVE POINT lead over GWBush.
These sites start out pushing for credibility and then once proven, move into full left wing propaganda thereafter.
These polls are useless because each one uses DIFFERENT questions, DIFFERNT samples, DIFFERENT methods.
Their desperate and continuing attempts to 50 or so Republicans that they managed to find who favored Carson over Trump in the IBD poll are pretty humorous.
Amen, Brothers and Sisters! Sing it loud, and sing it proud!
In terms of inter-planetary science. Trump is the Pluto of our solar system. Nobody has the mass or gravity to knock him out of his orbit. There will be no Gloria Allred moment like what happened to the lightweight Herman Cain.
Only a death-ray from an intergalactic Battlestar will have a chance to take him out. And im not even sure that will work either! Go Trump!
could it be that just maybe Fox and WSJ are in the tank for the RNC establishment pick, Jeb Bush and are not about to post favorable reports on any other candidate?
Interesting analysis.
One thing is for sure, no other presidential candidate is garnering so much free advertising.
Not only is Trump sucking all the ink out of the hemisphere, all of his competitors are spending their big donor dollars.
Rinse Prius in beside himself.
5.56mm
If Bush had these numbers the same media outlets predicting Trumps peak would instead be declaring the nomination secured.
Sheesh.
5.56mm
I want a landslide! I’m no longer content with Trump winning the election, I want him to crush it with a huuuuge, historic win! Go Trump Go!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.