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Forget the debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016
Reuters ^ | October 14, 2015 | Clifford Young and Julia Clark

Posted on 10/14/2015 9:26:55 AM PDT by wright2bear

Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways.

Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican will be moving into the White House in 2017.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016election; election; gop2016election; malarkey; poll; presidentromney; unexpected
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To: wright2bear; All
"They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways."

The above statement doesn’t take into consideration ballot box stuffing, the alleged ballot box stuffing concerning lawless Obama’s reelection an example.

41 posted on 10/14/2015 10:32:12 AM PDT by Amendment10
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To: wright2bear

Nice article, thanks.


42 posted on 10/14/2015 10:37:41 AM PDT by Talisker (One who commands, must obey.)
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To: wright2bear

Thank you for posting. Interesting, seemingly reasonable article.


43 posted on 10/14/2015 10:41:23 AM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: henkster

Bernie Sanders in last night’s debate said “Congress doesn’t control Wall St. Wall St. controls Congress” and he’s right. His solutions to this problem - put more and different people in charge - are wrong but both him and Trump have correctly identified the problem.


44 posted on 10/14/2015 10:45:13 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (Trump/Cruz 2016)
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To: bankwalker
but when a precinct get 104% vote for Obama, you just can’t defeat theft.

and

It happened in 3 cities in 3 swing states with a high number of electoral votes. 3 precincts. That's all it takes to steal a presidential election.

Amazing info. FReepers in those precincts and swing states, Go For It!

45 posted on 10/14/2015 10:45:53 AM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only Hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Art in Idaho
FReepers in those precincts

There are no Freepers in those precincts. In one Philly precinct, on election day, the Republican poll watchers got thrown out of the polling area and didn't get back in for several hours, even though a judge ordered it.

46 posted on 10/14/2015 10:48:51 AM PDT by bankwalker (In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.)
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To: discostu
It’s kind of depressing actually how predictable things are.
Yeah. Especially how high JEB’s poll numbers ain’t.

And the identity of the leading Republican candidate . . .

Actually, I agree with your analysis otherwise. But rather than relying on a “mushy middle” theory, IMHO turnout is usually the trump card.

Same effect, except that the mushy middle theory tells the GOPe that they really are going to win if they avoid associating with conservatives. Whereas the turnout theory says you can gain more by going conservative than you lose in the middle.


47 posted on 10/14/2015 11:14:55 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion ('Liberalism' is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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To: Personal Responsibility

You’re right, he did correctly identify the problem: Wall Street controls Congress. But his solution is for Congress (or “the State”) to control Wall Street.

In reality, neither one should control the other.


48 posted on 10/14/2015 11:17:49 AM PDT by henkster
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To: Rex Anderson

We’ve been witnessing it for the last 3 election cycles - the old paradigm that the models are based on has no basis in current reality.


49 posted on 10/14/2015 11:19:47 AM PDT by jurroppi1 (The only thing you "pass to see what's in it" is a stool sample. h/t MrB)
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To: wright2bear
That conclusion is based on the results of a data model we created, and is primarily the result of two factors, both related to the challenges faced by “successor” candidates — candidates from the same party as the incumbent.

First, a Republican will win because voters typically shy away from the party currently in power when an incumbent isn’t running. In fact, a successor candidate is three times less likely to win.

Second, President Barack Obama’s approval ratings are too low to suggest a successor candidate will take the White House.

If we can overcome the democratic party cheating.

50 posted on 10/14/2015 11:23:18 AM PDT by McGruff (Trump-Cruz 2016. Make America Great Again.)
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To: bankwalker
There are no Freepers in those precincts. In one Philly precinct, on election day, the Republican poll watchers got thrown out of the polling area and didn't get back in for several hours, even though a judge ordered it.

Anything that can be done preventively next time? Sheriff's deputy or Oath Keepers with the poll watchers plus maybe some extra volunteers?

51 posted on 10/14/2015 11:25:45 AM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only Hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: All
Wednesday, October 14, 2015:

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Obama's job performance. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove"

45% = 14% SUCCESSOR probability of victory

52 posted on 10/14/2015 11:32:48 AM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only Hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: wright2bear
We seem to alternate between Democrat and Republican Presidents every 8 years, so most likely we'll have a Republican President in 2017. The only question is whether that Republican will be genuinely different from his Democratic alternative.

I think that changing back and forth between Democratic and Republican Presidents/Congressional Majorities shows that fundamentally a substantial number of people don't really like either party very much. When Democrats are in power and do their typically lousy job of running things, people run to the Republicans, mistakenly assuming a substantive alternative. Similarly, when you get disappointing Republicans (e.g. the Bushes), people think that electing a Democrat will suddenly cure the nation's ills. In fact, both either/or strategies just get us more of the same, to the point where both parties have basically converged.

53 posted on 10/14/2015 12:00:05 PM PDT by ek_hornbeck
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To: petercooper
Dems are good for at least 4-5% fraud vote.

There has to be a strong voter fraud policy & poll security/policing in place or the election will turn out just like 2008 & 2012.
54 posted on 10/14/2015 12:02:21 PM PDT by rhubarbk (Crush Hillary in 2016)
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To: wright2bear
 
Vladimir Lenin Russia, Mao Zedong China, Adolf Hitler Germany, Fidel Castro Cuba


Kim Tu-bong, North Korea, Ho Chi Minh North Vietnam, Pol Pot Cambodia, Hugo Chavez, Venezuella


Bernie Sanders USA, Mrs. Bill Clinton USA

Communism (rabid Socialism) has never worked before, but Sanders and Mrs. Clinton are here to assure you it can.
Nevermind that Capitalism caused the United States to become second to none, where Communism failed to even
provide a decent society anywhere it has been tried.

Communism / Socialism cost over 100 million lives last century.  Why not give it another chance...  /S

Perhaps others want to sacrifice their nation and families on that alter.  I don't.

 

55 posted on 10/14/2015 12:18:34 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (It's beginning to look like "Morning in America" again. Comment on YouTube under Trump Free Ride.)
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To: wright2bear

Depends on who the Republicans nominate.


56 posted on 10/14/2015 12:20:18 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: wright2bear

Depends on who the Republicans nominate.


57 posted on 10/14/2015 12:20:21 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion

Turnout doesn’t effect things that much. Largely because we’re divided into 3rd. Even if one side has 100% turnout that’s not enough to win the election, you still need people from the middle. Turnout effects how much middle support you need, but you have to have that middle support.

There is the one proviso we get from the exceptions: don’t #$%^ it up. If the GOP seriously alienates their base the turnout could be so low that the currents of the mushy middle don’t help. But if they don’t alienate the base they will win next year. Much like we could tell at this point in 2007 that the Dems could nominate a box of rocks and still win in 08.


58 posted on 10/14/2015 12:23:53 PM PDT by discostu (Up-Up-Down-Down-Left-Right-Left-Right B, A, Start)
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To: MNJohnnie

Three basic unrefutable reasons nobama re-won in 2012.
First, a significant number of GOP/conservative voters did not vote, just could not vote for Mitt.

Second and third, dem vote fraud tipped both Florida and Ohio by just enough to give the electoral college to nobama.

The more shameful thing is that not one damn thing has been done to correct the dem’s abilities to bring in 2 or 3% by voter fraud.

The good news is that nobama and the dems have so pissed in the well that the usual voters are not going for any dem this trip.


59 posted on 10/14/2015 12:41:08 PM PDT by X-spurt (CRUZ missile - armed and ready.)
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To: LS
..........but none of them factored in Mittens and his inept, unwilling-to-fight campaign.

Mittens took a dive......

60 posted on 10/14/2015 12:42:33 PM PDT by varon (Don't point that finger at me unless you're prepared to have it broken off!)
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