Posted on 08/24/2015 6:21:07 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Stock markets around the world have been posting big losses for the last few days. The route was especially rough this morning, with the DOW Jones at one point falling 1,000 points in less than an hour. At the heart of the current slide is an issue which could impact many tech companies: economic weakness in China.
Two weeks ago China's government made an aggressive move to devalue its currency. This followed several weeks of tumult in the Chinese stock market, during which the government had also interceded with force. Taken together, investors saw a Chinese market where growth was flagging. That is far from the sole cause of the recent downturn in the markets, but it was the event that really catalyzed the current selloff. China is the world's second-largest economy, and the idea that its decades-long stretch of heady growth is coming to an end was enough to panic already jittery investors.
How would a weaker China affect the tech sector? Apple CEO Tim Cook took the unusual step of reaching out directly to CNBC's Jim Cramer with a message today, an attempt to calm nervous investors. China has been by far the biggest driver of Apple's recent growth. If consumers there stop spending on items like iPhones, it could put a serious dent in Apple's earnings.
Apple's @tim_cook just e-mailed AUTO_LINK_TOKEN_2_AUTO_LINK_TOKEN @CNBC pic.twitter.com/zzEqmDKFUK Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 24, 2015
Tech stocks like Facebook, Google, and Microsoft are all down today. But that doesn't really tell you much about the companies, since nearly all stocks are trading down across a variety of sectors. All told, global stocks have shed $5 trillion in value since China devalued its currency.
Stocks that were wobbling could crash
Unless we tip over into a long-term recession, most big tech companies will be fine. They have billions in cash and geographically diverse revenue streams. For young public companies like Twitter and Box, a major downturn would be more painful. If new customers dry up or advertisers spend less, stocks that were already wobbling could plummet.
On the startup side, most venture capitalists have been preaching for some time that a correction was in order. The last couple of years have been heady times, with dozens of new "unicorns" startups with valuations over $1 billion being created. Many of these companies have little to no revenue. Even the ones that are making money, like Snapchat and Uber, are spending way more than they are bringing in. And a lot of that late stage investment was coming from China.
The unicorn herd will be culled
The exit strategy for most of these unicorns is an acquisition or an IPO, and the latter is extremely hard to pull off in a bear market. That could mean startups are forced to raise a "down round": taking on new capital but at a lower valuation than a previous funding. It wouldn't be catastrophic to the broader economy, but it would have a massive impact on the employees, entrepreneurs, and overall environment in the tech sector, which has been reaching wild heights over the last few years.
Luckily, a bursting of the tech bubble, at least among startups, won't have nearly the impact it did during the dot-com bust. The majority of investors don't have major exposure to these companies, and a down round is not a death knell for a startup with a real business model. While it may seem like markets in the US and China are hurting, you need to remember that both have been on an amazing bull run for years leading up to this. We've got a long way to go before this is more than just a painful, but healthy, correction to very overheated markets.
The stock market plunge, in perspective. (10-year chart.) pic.twitter.com/M30thHhkrv Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) August 24, 2015
PS Jim, I find you very attractive.
>> The unicorn herd will be culled
I’d like to see it. It would surely take the wind out of some liberal sails.
Twitter traded below its IPO price today. Good start!
Cook must be out of his mind. Cramer?............
Twitter traded below its IPO price today. Good start!
oh my i’m so out of it twitter was an ipo? nasdaq twit?
The stock markets are being openly hacked in a massive way. That’s what HFT is. So crazy behavior is no surprise at all.
They’ll get their just desert...of rainbow sherbet.
I hope some of you took my advise and sold your Apple stock 3 months ago.
I say it drops another 500 by the end of the week, then it regains 1000, maybe 1500 in the next 2 or 3 weeks....then it crashes to 11,000 or less
I read somewhere that this raised the SEC’s eyebrows.
I want to see another Jim Kramer meltdown like the one in 2007.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWksEJQEYVU
September may be brutal....
Leonard the Wonder Monkey must have been unavailable.
In case you're not familiar with Leonard, he was presented as a monkey that made random stock picks. He had a website where his predictions were posted. Long-term, Leonard beat Cramer. Some details here:
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/05/prweb384455.htm
“PS Jim, I find you very attractive.”
LOL
A letter like that seems unprofessional. Sending it to Cramer; inexcusable.
I’m not convinced China’s middle-class future is bright.
China is going through some growing pains right now, and I’m not convinced this is going to end as well as others seem to think.
China got the idea the U. S. was going to allow this lop-sided relationship go on forever. It may not. If it doesn’t those grown projections are going to start being impossible to meet.
Very funny first post on the thread. Perhaps they can do SWAPS on spit.
I don’t think Tim Cook’s stupidity is imputed to the entire market.
As one smart guest on CNBC said:
“China has central planning by scientists, mathematicians, and engineers, and the US has central planning by lawyers.
Neither is good, but by definition we lose.”
Lol
The email is possibly illegal, too. via Zero Hedge:
“While we are delighted by Tim Cook’s subjective take of AAPL’s Chinese prospects, we have a different question: where is the public filing that accompanies this letter which constitutes nothing short of a private business update with an outside, and unregulated by Apple, market cheerleader?
Because as the AAPL reaction to Tim’s letter, which was clearly in Cramer’s private possession for at least 1 millisecond before it was made public (and thus we don’t know who else may have had access to it before its public dissemination), just how is this not a Regulation Fair Disclosure violation?”
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