Posted on 08/11/2015 11:34:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I’m not telling you these polls are correct, just like I didn’t tell you yesterday that that bombshell Morning Consult survey showing Trump rising to 32 percent after the debate was correct. We’re tracking all of the polls this week to see what the consensus says, as that’ll be a reasonably good indicator of where the race really stands right now.
The good news for Trump fans via Rasmussen: He’s still leading the field. The bad news: For the first time since the start of Trumpmania, he’s losing ground rather than gaining it.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote…
Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and the candidate generally viewed as the winner of the B-level debate last Thursday evening, has jumped eight points from one percent (1%) support in the previous survey…
Rubio has doubled his level of support from five percent (5%) in late July. Carson has gained slightly. Walker has fallen back five points, while support for Bush and Cruz has held steady.
Fiorina and Rubio both had strong debates on Thursday so an accurate poll should, one would think, show them building support since last week. That’s what Rasmussen shows, to the point where Carly’s now in the top five. Moreover, one of the theories by Trump naysayers about his polling is that it’s deceptive insofar as it’s picking up (in some cases) supporters who are unlikely to actually vote in the Republican primaries. Ask an average American adult who’s not politically engaged who he/she prefers in a field of Donald Trump and 16 unknowns and you’re likely to hear “Donald Trump” in reply — even if that person has no intention of casting a ballot. Rasmussen seeks to control for that by polling only likely Republican voters. Within that group, they’re finding a nearly 10-point drop for Trump since last week.
That’s not the only poll out today with bad news, though. Suffolk polled Iowa and found Trump still leading there at 17 percent, which is in line with how we was doing in several pre-debate polls there over the last few weeks. Among people who watched the debate, though, the results were ominous:
When asked if Trump was targeted unfairly by Fox’s moderators, 54 percent said no. When asked who was the most impressive at the debate, 23 percent said Marco Rubio, 22 percent said Ben Carson, and 11 percent said Ted Cruz. Slightly less than 11 percent said Trump. (For what it’s worth, despite Carson disappearing during the debate for long stretches, I’ve heard several conservative friends say how impressed they were with him. If Trumpmania begins to fizzle, Carson may be the guy who starts picking up Trump’s “no more politics as usual” support despite the fact that they’re polar opposites in personality.) Although Trump’s favorable rating in Iowa is now net positive at 45/37, he’s far behind his most serious competitors there in that metric: Scott Walker is at 73/13, Rubio is at 72/12, Carson is at 78/7(!), and Cruz is at 64/17. Quote:
“It appears that Donald Trump’s lead is strong so long as the number of active opponents remains above a dozen,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “If the Republican field were winnowed down to five or six candidates, Trump’s 17 percent probably wouldn’t be enough to win in Iowa, as polling indicates that his further growth has limitations. The long-shot candidates staying in the race help keep Trump on top—at least for now.”
One more poll for you, this from another early state. The Boston Herald and Franklin Pierce University polled New Hampshire after the debate and found, once again, Trump still in the lead. But he wasn’t the big mover this time — and his support was noticeably lower than it’s been in other recent NH polls:
.@bostonherald @FPUniversity NH #FITN poll: @realDonaldTrump 18%, @JebBush 13%, @JohnKasich 12%, @tedcruz 10%, surging @CarlyFiorina 9%.
— Jen Miller (@jenbmiller) August 11, 2015
The last four polls in New Hampshire had Trump at 21, 24, 24, and 32 points; this is the first time he’s been below 20 since late June. No crosstabs available yet, but presumably it’s the rising Kasich and Fiorina who have gobbled up some of his support. Kasich’s strategy, a la Jon Huntsman, is to all but skip Iowa and camp out in New Hampshire, hoping to stun the establishment frontrunner in the primary there next year and launch himself into serious contention for the nomination. Nate Cohn of the NYT looked at that Herald poll this morning and wondered if this month will be remembered in hindsight not for Trumpmania but as the month when Kasich became a serious enough contender in New Hampshire to threaten Jeb Bush. If you’re a Trump fan who’s bummed out about his new numbers, take some comfort in that. If Kasich cuts deeply enough into Jeb’s take in NH, it could enable some other candidate to sneak through to victory, all but destroying Bush’s campaign before it gets going. Second look at Kasich?
What did the ghostwriter say?
The ‘new Rassmussen’? Meh.
Low information types don’t get what was happening in the debate.
Talked to someone this morning who didn’t like how Trump answered the questions or went after McCain.
I explained the out of context questions to Trump and the 40 minutes of no questions to Cruz to show this was a bad debate.
As far as McCain, excluding the service early in his life his service as a Senator has been the worst and the guy agreed when I reminded him of what McCain had done in his past to block good things.
That is what people are up against.
I have not posted one word that this poll is incorrect.
I have simply said, this poll confirms the hit job by Fox on Trump failed.
>> People at FR used to love Rasmussen <<
Except when he bears bad news.
I find it ODD that they waited so long to release this poll. Seems they wanted to conduct attacks first THEN polls.
Kasich is the jbush replacement according to weekly standard implications.
another useful idiot for the kleptocrats.
That is only 91 points for the total percentage. Where are the other 9 points? Are they in the percentage points but were rounded up/down?
Again!
Here comes the attempt to sell Rubio since Yeb is showing poorly.
Yep. And the Trump bash caucus is so busy tilting at windmills that they won’t know what hits them when the GOPe springs that attack on conservatives.
Rubio is far and away the top 2nd place choice in polls I’ve seen. With his fashionable tan and fake conservative credentials he is far more a danger to conservatives than Trump ever will be.
Trump will be on hannity tonight and hannity said he is going to be asking a lot of questions about the specific things he will do.
TRUMPS ON RIGHT NOW!!!!...he just had Press conference and will be giving his speech in Michigan in the next half...he did outstanding handling the press!
Fox is covering this...
Trumps giving a speech on the second half of Gretta’s show on Fox NOW....had press conference already and did great! Handled them very well.
http://vaughnlive.tv/newzviewz
Sorry but you are 100% wrong on this.
Intellectually Donald Trump could not shine Ted Cruz’s shoes.
All you have to do is listen to the two men talk and look at their history.
Cruz is a Constitutional genius, and Trump doesn’t have a clue as to it’s true interpretation or else he would have never been a Dem, or Pro-Death (abortion).
Trump has made money, but he inherited his company from his dad. Cruz’s dad is a first generation Cuban immigrant whose son at 10 had memorized the Constitution.
Cruz is just as driven as Trump, but driven to a different cause.
To compare their backgrounds based on how much money each has made is disingenuous at least, and farcical at best.
Did someone say "secret sauce"?
Rasmussen is a sharp guy, kind and generous. He’s a solid conservative. He’s a top pollster and someone who noted the major changes we’re experiencing currently.
He also is done with Rasmussen Reports: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Rasmussen#Departure_from_Rasmussen_Reports
Here’s his books:
http://www.amazon.com/Scott-W.-Rasmussen/e/B001K8SLCK/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_5?qid=1439344830&sr=8-5
That said, 5th MEB is a cad, ignoramous and/or fool. Hopefully, you’re not past redemption and will apologize to Scott publicly.
At best Trump’s a RINO.
Here’s the problem with these polls and their reliability - the real numbers are so low, even for the frontrunner, that the margin of error is alone enough to show a huge drop or huge surge in support.
I predicted pollsters would lie about Trump, I have ALWAYS criticized Rasmussen, I dont buy that he is a Conservative I never have.
No I am not just saying this because of this result. Now Ras can be a wink for the other MSM pollsters to come out with lower numbers, this is how it works, they dont actually collaborate its just their intuition.
Maybe they will take Ras up on it maybe they wont at this time?
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