Posted on 08/11/2015 11:34:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I’m not telling you these polls are correct, just like I didn’t tell you yesterday that that bombshell Morning Consult survey showing Trump rising to 32 percent after the debate was correct. We’re tracking all of the polls this week to see what the consensus says, as that’ll be a reasonably good indicator of where the race really stands right now.
The good news for Trump fans via Rasmussen: He’s still leading the field. The bad news: For the first time since the start of Trumpmania, he’s losing ground rather than gaining it.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote…
Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and the candidate generally viewed as the winner of the B-level debate last Thursday evening, has jumped eight points from one percent (1%) support in the previous survey…
Rubio has doubled his level of support from five percent (5%) in late July. Carson has gained slightly. Walker has fallen back five points, while support for Bush and Cruz has held steady.
Fiorina and Rubio both had strong debates on Thursday so an accurate poll should, one would think, show them building support since last week. That’s what Rasmussen shows, to the point where Carly’s now in the top five. Moreover, one of the theories by Trump naysayers about his polling is that it’s deceptive insofar as it’s picking up (in some cases) supporters who are unlikely to actually vote in the Republican primaries. Ask an average American adult who’s not politically engaged who he/she prefers in a field of Donald Trump and 16 unknowns and you’re likely to hear “Donald Trump” in reply — even if that person has no intention of casting a ballot. Rasmussen seeks to control for that by polling only likely Republican voters. Within that group, they’re finding a nearly 10-point drop for Trump since last week.
That’s not the only poll out today with bad news, though. Suffolk polled Iowa and found Trump still leading there at 17 percent, which is in line with how we was doing in several pre-debate polls there over the last few weeks. Among people who watched the debate, though, the results were ominous:
When asked if Trump was targeted unfairly by Fox’s moderators, 54 percent said no. When asked who was the most impressive at the debate, 23 percent said Marco Rubio, 22 percent said Ben Carson, and 11 percent said Ted Cruz. Slightly less than 11 percent said Trump. (For what it’s worth, despite Carson disappearing during the debate for long stretches, I’ve heard several conservative friends say how impressed they were with him. If Trumpmania begins to fizzle, Carson may be the guy who starts picking up Trump’s “no more politics as usual” support despite the fact that they’re polar opposites in personality.) Although Trump’s favorable rating in Iowa is now net positive at 45/37, he’s far behind his most serious competitors there in that metric: Scott Walker is at 73/13, Rubio is at 72/12, Carson is at 78/7(!), and Cruz is at 64/17. Quote:
“It appears that Donald Trump’s lead is strong so long as the number of active opponents remains above a dozen,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “If the Republican field were winnowed down to five or six candidates, Trump’s 17 percent probably wouldn’t be enough to win in Iowa, as polling indicates that his further growth has limitations. The long-shot candidates staying in the race help keep Trump on top—at least for now.”
One more poll for you, this from another early state. The Boston Herald and Franklin Pierce University polled New Hampshire after the debate and found, once again, Trump still in the lead. But he wasn’t the big mover this time — and his support was noticeably lower than it’s been in other recent NH polls:
.@bostonherald @FPUniversity NH #FITN poll: @realDonaldTrump 18%, @JebBush 13%, @JohnKasich 12%, @tedcruz 10%, surging @CarlyFiorina 9%.
— Jen Miller (@jenbmiller) August 11, 2015
The last four polls in New Hampshire had Trump at 21, 24, 24, and 32 points; this is the first time he’s been below 20 since late June. No crosstabs available yet, but presumably it’s the rising Kasich and Fiorina who have gobbled up some of his support. Kasich’s strategy, a la Jon Huntsman, is to all but skip Iowa and camp out in New Hampshire, hoping to stun the establishment frontrunner in the primary there next year and launch himself into serious contention for the nomination. Nate Cohn of the NYT looked at that Herald poll this morning and wondered if this month will be remembered in hindsight not for Trumpmania but as the month when Kasich became a serious enough contender in New Hampshire to threaten Jeb Bush. If you’re a Trump fan who’s bummed out about his new numbers, take some comfort in that. If Kasich cuts deeply enough into Jeb’s take in NH, it could enable some other candidate to sneak through to victory, all but destroying Bush’s campaign before it gets going. Second look at Kasich?
Trump needs more careful strategy and less winging it would be wing it when building a building or a company.
Your point being that Net Worth is a valid proxy for Intelligence?
Can we also assume that it is linear? Like a person with a 1 million dollar net worth is exactly twice as smart as a person with a 500,000 dollar net worth? And everyone’s goal of course is to maximize their financial net worth. No one who say, becomes a priest or a kindergarten teacher is doing it for any reason other than that job is the highest paying one they could get? THESE ARE FASCINATING POINTS! I love what you have taught me!
We’ll see how things look as more polls are published. But I never understood how Trump went from the mid-20s to 30% and more in a few polls in late July, Rasmussen being one of them.
I think his support level has been around 25%, plus or minus a couple of points, and around 18% in state polls for Iowa and NH.
“She had blood coming out of her wherever.” - D. Trump (Genius)
Earlier polls showed increases for Cruz and Trump. So the trend is not yet established. But I have said elsewhere I was puzzled by Trump's late July jump from the mid-20s into the low 30s. Saw no reason for that at the time.
I think Trump's support is and has been in the mid-20s nationally.
Rassmussen sold his company a few yrs ago to a left of center company. Ever since then they have been in the tank for Obama. They consistently have his approval over 50% when others have him in mid-low 40’s
I think he mixed his metaphors. Most people I know would have said she was "out for blood".
This poll has Cruz in 7th. Doubt it.
I get a kick out of you guys who can dish, but suddenly turn to 1000 year old china when someone dishes back.
Don't be so brittle. You'll be okay. Promise.
The intellect argument suffers considerably when you realize Trump was at one point under water in 1989, and today is worth $5 to $10 billion.
Trying to pass him off as some second to Cruz's intellectual prowess is just silly. What has Ted Cruz created in his lifetime?
Has he owned or run a successful business? How many people did he employ. How many thousands of humans survived off the money their family collected working for him?
I hadn’t noticed Huckleberry’s photo...lol.
That's what Megyn pulled. The first volley in total character assassination of Donald Trump. My suspicion is that he's polling very well with women, so the goal was to make him appear to be anti-woman.
Trump had no choice other than to bring it out in the open. But, as I said, now I hope he comes out with some very excellent specifics about how he'd save the US.
Trump inherited a real estate empire, then leveraged it massively when prices were low in the 1970’s and rode the resurgence of New York to a great outcome. Notwithstanding a number of very bad business ventures including, The New Jersey Generals, Trump Air, and a slew of bankrupt casinos, the rising prices of NYC real estate have meant that he has gotten very rich.
That’s great, but I mean if his father had left those assets to a cocker spaniel, the cocker spaniel’s heirs would be very rich now, too. Owning rising assets is not a mark of intelligence, anymore than being on an airplane is a mark of personal bouyancy.
If that is where Trump is after the debate performance and the past weekend’s festivities, I’m thinking he’s ok with that. Not too shabby of a post-mortem.
The weird outlier is Obama, who is on TV more than any previous POTUS, nearly every day.
With the way the polls are all over the map, my best guess is that current polling techniques simply can’t produce accurate results on a field of 17 candidates - most support levels are at or near the size of the margin of error.
The other thing I’m noticing is that polled support levels seem to reflect the amount of recent media coverage a candidate has gotten more than anything else.
Support candidates with the best policies and ignore polls for now. When the field narrows to 5 or 6 then the polls might become more meaningful.
And as a result he contradicts himself every day! It’s just not good modern journalism to remind him of it?
First place is first place. Walker and Bush would kill for 17%.
LOL!!
“Trump’s support will all wind up with Cruz, who is just as outspoken, but a lot smarter.”
Hope you’re right!
I agree. He should have called her out and let it go. The WORLD saw what she and Baier and Wallace tried to do. He could have walked away a huge winner. Now I’m afraid Kelly will win.
I do hope Trump puts out Kelly’s interview with Stern. And I especially he sends it Ailes.
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