Posted on 07/21/2015 7:12:54 AM PDT by iowamark
One analyst thinks former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) is the clear front-runner to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.
Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist at the Potomac Research Group, now pegs Bush's odds of winning the nomination at 50%. That's up from the 35% odds Potomac gave him in June.
"His campaign has stabilized after a terrible spring slump," Valliere wrote in a research note.
Bush has been leading most Republican polls of the race, but has faced an insurgency in recent weeks from real-estate magnate Donald Trump, who doubled Bush's support nationally in a poll released Monday by ABC and The Washington Post.
But Valliere, like most analysts, eventually expects Trump to flame out: He gives him a 0% chance of winning the GOP nomination. However, he thinks there's a 35% chance he'll run as a third-party candidate, which would make him the Republican Party's "worst nightmare."
"We've been (sort of) amused by this buffoon, but there was nothing funny about Trump's ugly demagoguery this weekend. He's toast," Valliere wrote, referring to Trump's remarks questioning Sen. John McCain's (R-Arizona) status as a "war hero."
Here are the full odds for Republicans, per Valliere:
Bush: 50%, up from 35% Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 25%, the same as last month US Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida): 20%, down from 30% last month Someone else: 5%
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
El Jebbe has a 100% chance of never getting my vote. He can go run for Presidente of Mejico.
I came across a disturbing poll number on Cruz yesterday while doing research on another issue.
At NBCNews.com - Decision 2014 - they asked all Texas voters, “Would Ted Cruz be a good president?”
No - 50% (!)
Yes - 35%
Now, that's in Texas. I've watched all the GOP presidential nomination polls for about the last six weeks. Cruz is consistently in 4th or 5th place.
He's going to need a lot of good luck to win the nomination, and even more good luck to win the general election.
Yep. Who is going to vote for him? Democrats? Ha! Independents? Not bloody likely. Conservatives? Some, but not in big enough numbers. Moderate Republicans are the only ones that will vote for Jebba in large enough numbers, and that won't be nearly enough. The problem, of course, is will enough "moderates" vote for a conservative candidate? I have my doubts, so a retarded Dem may well be the next president.
Ted Cruz knows how to present Conservative arguments effectively. He is in the tradition of Goldwater & Reagan in that. If he just can master Reagan's technique of shooting down Leftwing arguments with a smile--Goldwater, unfortunately, was more apt to scowl, which played into the hands of those who claimed he would start a nuclear war--although that was only one factor in his defeat.
So what you’re saying is that once exposed to an idea... WE SAW THE OBVIOUS!”
It’s a curse ‘)
Jeb has ZERO pct chance of getting elected President.
I’d say you are correct.
A Clinton-Bush contest will produce a Tea Party candidate in most red states.
It will look very much like 1992 - 43% of the vote, but 370 evs for the Dem.
10 minutes after the networks call it for Hillary, Lanny Davis and Paul Begala will be on tv saying “the people have spoken”
Most Cruz supporters have difficulty with the fact that he ran behind Mediocre Mitt in Texas in November 2012 for both total votes and percentage of the vote.
Most folks on here would brand Mediocre Mitt a pretty uninspiring candidate.
I was talking about boring, not retarded!!!!
A coyse, I tell yuZ...a real coyse!
That's before either Cruz or Jeb began a serious run at the nomination.
National Election Pool does all the national election day polling for every TV news network, also for Associated Press and New York Times.
I think it's fair to say the poll probably has some left wing bias, considering the news media who pay for it.
Still, I'll bet that Goldwater and Reagan never saw a poll like that - 50% “NO” - in their home states.
I will not vote for Jeb Bush.
The DC uniparty seems to be very concerned that Trump will damage the GOP brand.
Like the merchant class of Carthage who, when the Gerusia responded favorably to an appeal from Hannibal for large quantities of silver coin with which to dissolve the Roman system of alliances and co-optations, selfishly went secretly to the judges of the Carthaginian supreme court, bribes in hand, and suborned the judges' invalidation of the new tax.
For a few good quarters, the merchants doomed their city, their families, and their children. But then, given discount rates, that is what a Harvard MBA would have told them to do, too.
Oh I get it now.
GOP has at least a bakers dozen or more designated losers in their own ranks to propel Bush forward.
And Trump threw a big old spanner into it.
Of course the lights went out in Rome half a millennium later, as a result of centuries of policies similar to those favored in Washington today.
But to return to Carthage. To me the most powerful scene in the movie "Paton" was where he looks over the site of ancient Carthage, and reflects on War.
“I have my doubts, so a retarded Dem may well be the next president.”
That sentence contains a redundancy.
There is no difference between Jeb and Hillary, they both belong to the same political cartel.
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