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ANALYST: Jeb Bush now has a 50% chance of winning the GOP nomination
Business Insider ^ | 7/21/2015 | Brett LoGiurato

Posted on 07/21/2015 7:12:54 AM PDT by iowamark

One analyst thinks former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) is the clear front-runner to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.

Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist at the Potomac Research Group, now pegs Bush's odds of winning the nomination at 50%. That's up from the 35% odds Potomac gave him in June.

"His campaign has stabilized after a terrible spring slump," Valliere wrote in a research note.

Bush has been leading most Republican polls of the race, but has faced an insurgency in recent weeks from real-estate magnate Donald Trump, who doubled Bush's support nationally in a poll released Monday by ABC and The Washington Post.

But Valliere, like most analysts, eventually expects Trump to flame out: He gives him a 0% chance of winning the GOP nomination. However, he thinks there's a 35% chance he'll run as a third-party candidate, which would make him the Republican Party's "worst nightmare."

"We've been (sort of) amused by this buffoon, but there was nothing funny about Trump's ugly demagoguery this weekend. He's toast," Valliere wrote, referring to Trump's remarks questioning Sen. John McCain's (R-Arizona) status as a "war hero."

Here are the full odds for Republicans, per Valliere:

Bush: 50%, up from 35% Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 25%, the same as last month US Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida): 20%, down from 30% last month Someone else: 5%

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: jebbush; marcorubio; scottwalker; stayoutdabushes
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To: iowamark

El Jebbe has a 100% chance of never getting my vote. He can go run for Presidente of Mejico.


61 posted on 07/21/2015 10:40:28 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: Ohioan
Re: “Trump may or may not “flame out.” If he does, Ted Cruz....will be the most likely beneficiary.”

I came across a disturbing poll number on Cruz yesterday while doing research on another issue.

At NBCNews.com - Decision 2014 - they asked all Texas voters, “Would Ted Cruz be a good president?”

No - 50% (!)
Yes - 35%

Now, that's in Texas. I've watched all the GOP presidential nomination polls for about the last six weeks. Cruz is consistently in 4th or 5th place.

He's going to need a lot of good luck to win the nomination, and even more good luck to win the general election.

62 posted on 07/21/2015 11:21:52 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: grania
Jeb has a 0% chance of winning the election.

Yep. Who is going to vote for him? Democrats? Ha! Independents? Not bloody likely. Conservatives? Some, but not in big enough numbers. Moderate Republicans are the only ones that will vote for Jebba in large enough numbers, and that won't be nearly enough. The problem, of course, is will enough "moderates" vote for a conservative candidate? I have my doubts, so a retarded Dem may well be the next president.

63 posted on 07/21/2015 11:31:04 AM PDT by Major Matt Mason ("Journalism is dead. All news is suspect." - Noamie)
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To: zeestephen
It is far too early to believe any particular poll; far too early to pay too much attention to any report of negatives. (NBC is part of the Jeb Bush promotion these days--so keep that in mind;--and Donald Trump has shown how easy it is to render Jeb Bush ineffective.)

Ted Cruz knows how to present Conservative arguments effectively. He is in the tradition of Goldwater & Reagan in that. If he just can master Reagan's technique of shooting down Leftwing arguments with a smile--Goldwater, unfortunately, was more apt to scowl, which played into the hands of those who claimed he would start a nuclear war--although that was only one factor in his defeat.

64 posted on 07/21/2015 11:34:38 AM PDT by Ohioan
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To: stephenjohnbanker

So what you’re saying is that once exposed to an idea... WE SAW THE OBVIOUS!”

It’s a curse ‘)


65 posted on 07/21/2015 12:11:50 PM PDT by Norm Lenhart
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To: iowamark

Jeb has ZERO pct chance of getting elected President.


66 posted on 07/21/2015 12:18:25 PM PDT by stevem
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To: stevem

I’d say you are correct.
A Clinton-Bush contest will produce a Tea Party candidate in most red states.
It will look very much like 1992 - 43% of the vote, but 370 evs for the Dem.

10 minutes after the networks call it for Hillary, Lanny Davis and Paul Begala will be on tv saying “the people have spoken”


67 posted on 07/21/2015 12:24:17 PM PDT by nascarnation (Impeach, convict, deport)
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To: zeestephen

Most Cruz supporters have difficulty with the fact that he ran behind Mediocre Mitt in Texas in November 2012 for both total votes and percentage of the vote.

Most folks on here would brand Mediocre Mitt a pretty uninspiring candidate.


68 posted on 07/21/2015 12:27:32 PM PDT by nascarnation (Impeach, convict, deport)
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To: Jim Noble

I was talking about boring, not retarded!!!!


69 posted on 07/21/2015 3:08:19 PM PDT by miss marmelstein (Richard the Third: "I should like to drive away not only the Turks (moslims) but all my foes.")
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To: Norm Lenhart

A coyse, I tell yuZ...a real coyse!


70 posted on 07/21/2015 3:14:14 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: All
The Washington Generals lose another one !!


71 posted on 07/21/2015 4:45:07 PM PDT by Kid Shelleen (Beat your plowshares into swords. Let the weak say I am strong)
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To: Ohioan
The poll was a National Election Pool exit poll taken on election day 2014 in Texas.

That's before either Cruz or Jeb began a serious run at the nomination.

National Election Pool does all the national election day polling for every TV news network, also for Associated Press and New York Times.

I think it's fair to say the poll probably has some left wing bias, considering the news media who pay for it.

Still, I'll bet that Goldwater and Reagan never saw a poll like that - 50% “NO” - in their home states.

72 posted on 07/21/2015 5:07:13 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: iowamark

I will not vote for Jeb Bush.


73 posted on 07/21/2015 5:09:18 PM PDT by dforest
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To: madprof98

The DC uniparty seems to be very concerned that Trump will damage the GOP brand.


74 posted on 07/21/2015 10:46:01 PM PDT by jospehm20
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To: Ohioan
Do not get me wrong. I have nothing against CEO's, as long as they do not put the next three or four quarters' "bottom lines," ahead of the American future.

Like the merchant class of Carthage who, when the Gerusia responded favorably to an appeal from Hannibal for large quantities of silver coin with which to dissolve the Roman system of alliances and co-optations, selfishly went secretly to the judges of the Carthaginian supreme court, bribes in hand, and suborned the judges' invalidation of the new tax.

For a few good quarters, the merchants doomed their city, their families, and their children. But then, given discount rates, that is what a Harvard MBA would have told them to do, too.

75 posted on 07/22/2015 1:31:09 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus ("If America was a house , the Left would root for the termites." - Greg Gutfeld)
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To: tanknetter

Oh I get it now.

GOP has at least a bakers dozen or more designated losers in their own ranks to propel Bush forward.

And Trump threw a big old spanner into it.


76 posted on 07/22/2015 1:54:30 AM PDT by Califreak (Hope and Che'nge is killing U.S. Feel the Trump-mentum!)
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To: lentulusgracchus
History is certainly replete with examples of recurring stupidity on the part of those who should know better.

Of course the lights went out in Rome half a millennium later, as a result of centuries of policies similar to those favored in Washington today.

But to return to Carthage. To me the most powerful scene in the movie "Paton" was where he looks over the site of ancient Carthage, and reflects on War.

77 posted on 07/22/2015 7:01:38 AM PDT by Ohioan
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To: The Toll
Jeb and his hermanos


78 posted on 07/22/2015 9:16:17 AM PDT by Pelham (Deo Vindice)
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To: Major Matt Mason

“I have my doubts, so a retarded Dem may well be the next president.”

That sentence contains a redundancy.


79 posted on 07/22/2015 9:39:05 AM PDT by RipSawyer (Racism is racism, regardless of the race of the racist.)
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To: stevem

There is no difference between Jeb and Hillary, they both belong to the same political cartel.


80 posted on 07/22/2015 9:40:49 AM PDT by dfwgator
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