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ANALYST: Jeb Bush now has a 50% chance of winning the GOP nomination
Business Insider ^ | 7/21/2015 | Brett LoGiurato

Posted on 07/21/2015 7:12:54 AM PDT by iowamark

One analyst thinks former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) is the clear front-runner to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.

Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist at the Potomac Research Group, now pegs Bush's odds of winning the nomination at 50%. That's up from the 35% odds Potomac gave him in June.

"His campaign has stabilized after a terrible spring slump," Valliere wrote in a research note.

Bush has been leading most Republican polls of the race, but has faced an insurgency in recent weeks from real-estate magnate Donald Trump, who doubled Bush's support nationally in a poll released Monday by ABC and The Washington Post.

But Valliere, like most analysts, eventually expects Trump to flame out: He gives him a 0% chance of winning the GOP nomination. However, he thinks there's a 35% chance he'll run as a third-party candidate, which would make him the Republican Party's "worst nightmare."

"We've been (sort of) amused by this buffoon, but there was nothing funny about Trump's ugly demagoguery this weekend. He's toast," Valliere wrote, referring to Trump's remarks questioning Sen. John McCain's (R-Arizona) status as a "war hero."

Here are the full odds for Republicans, per Valliere:

Bush: 50%, up from 35% Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 25%, the same as last month US Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida): 20%, down from 30% last month Someone else: 5%

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: jebbush; marcorubio; scottwalker; stayoutdabushes
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To: grania

And not much more than 0% chance of winning the nomination. As I just commented in another response, whatever happens to Trump’s campaign, good or bad, he has exposed the obvious irrelevance of Jeb Bush.


21 posted on 07/21/2015 7:35:14 AM PDT by Ohioan
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To: grania
Jeb has a 0% chance of winning the election.

Agreed. That is why the GOPe plan is for the primaries to end in a deadlocked scrum, where they can hand him the nomination at the convention.


22 posted on 07/21/2015 7:35:26 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: iowamark

I’d like Cruz to be the nominee. If not maybe Scott Walker.

Under no circumstances will I EVER vote for Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, Amnesty Graham, Marc Rubio, George Pataki, Rand Paul or Chris Christy.


23 posted on 07/21/2015 7:39:11 AM PDT by Cubs Fan ( liberalism=totalitarianism- http://thefederalist.com/2015/07/06/the-new-totalitarians-are-here/)
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To: iowamark

He was just on Mike Gallagher’s show. After about 3 minutes, I switched over to Mark Simone. I’ve never heard a duller, more tired and bored candidate outside of maybe Dole and Bill Bennett and Jack Kemp.


24 posted on 07/21/2015 7:41:04 AM PDT by miss marmelstein (Richard the Third: "I should like to drive away not only the Turks (moslims) but all my foes.")
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To: iowamark

Well of course. The GOPe fix is in. I am somewhat heartened by his abysmal poll numbers and he is a TERRIBLE candidate. But I’ve been around a long time. What the GOPe wants the GOPe gets. Anything else is just moving the furniture around a little.


25 posted on 07/21/2015 7:41:43 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: iowamark

And I still have yet to meet an actual Jeb Bush supporter.


26 posted on 07/21/2015 7:41:52 AM PDT by EternalVigilance (McCain was a war hero? So was Benedict Arnold.)
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To: iowamark

How does Jeb improve his poll numbers given he already has 100% name recognition? And he is barely to the right of Hillary?


27 posted on 07/21/2015 7:42:17 AM PDT by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
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To: iowamark

jebbush is the Leftist globalist, not so covert mole.

His job is to suck up the big money, use that money to attack other conservative candidates, and in the general, he will intentionally insult the conservative base to drive them to vote 3rd party or stay at home.


28 posted on 07/21/2015 7:48:39 AM PDT by grumpygresh (My real thoughts have been self censored.)
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To: grania

They are going to push, drag and shove this dead horse over the finish line faster than you can say President Hillary.


29 posted on 07/21/2015 7:50:24 AM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s, you weren't really there....)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

I’m wondering how Trump would do with a third party that’s established in all 50 states, with a well chosen VP, if it’s hillary vs Jeb. 40% of the vote would probably win a three-way in most states, and a majority of voters might be disgusted enough to cast that protest vote.


30 posted on 07/21/2015 7:54:04 AM PDT by grania
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To: grania
Jeb has a 0% chance of winning the election.

Which is exactly why the democrat/communist media/entertainment/academia propaganda complex wants to select him as the "straw man" candidate. Just like they did with McCain in 2008.

31 posted on 07/21/2015 7:57:13 AM PDT by henkster (Where'd my tagline go?)
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To: henkster
Just like they did with McCain in 2008

I've had a thought! The media and the 'pub puppetmasters and the outraged dwarfs in the race are so outraged about anyone speaking truth about McCain, maybe McCain should be their nominee!

32 posted on 07/21/2015 7:59:26 AM PDT by grania
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To: iowamark

I think the cat is smarter.

33 posted on 07/21/2015 8:01:46 AM PDT by EinNYC
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To: Fiji Hill

The support is from the people who donate millions.

I am waiting to see how the Iowa caucases go. Last time, Romney stole the election via fraud, which was only corrected after the Paul people filled a lot of complaints. I expect similar tricks this time around.

Simply put, you don’t matter, the donors do. They want open borders.


34 posted on 07/21/2015 8:04:28 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: iowamark

Nah, Jeb isn’t “serious” about running.


35 posted on 07/21/2015 8:10:41 AM PDT by BerryDingle (I know how to deal with communists, I still wear their scars on my back from Hollywood-Ronald Reagan)
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To: iowamark
One analyst.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha.......

36 posted on 07/21/2015 8:14:48 AM PDT by Lakeshark
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To: VanDeKoik
Still cant find any video of an actual person that is excited about JeBush.

Corporate board rooms and the club room of the monocle and top hat crowd tend to frown on anyone bringing in video cameras without authorization.

37 posted on 07/21/2015 8:16:12 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: iowamark

These numbers look pretty bogus to me. The conservative base hates Jeb and without us he does not have a path to the nomination.


38 posted on 07/21/2015 8:17:32 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: iowamark
He's toast," Valliere wrote

The stage managers are in a panic.

The actors are taking over the play.

It has not been this fun since 1968.

39 posted on 07/21/2015 8:17:36 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.hich)
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To: iowamark

There are seventeen candidates, sixteen of which are fighting for the conservative vote. I suppose he’s figuring that the conservatives will fight among themselves for so long that Bush will sneak in under the wire.


40 posted on 07/21/2015 8:18:00 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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