Skip to comments.Why Jeb Bush is Likely to Win the Republican Nomination
Posted on 02/17/2015 7:52:22 AM PST by pinochet
I need to mention a fact that many freepers will find painful and upsetting. In the 20th Century, Country Club Republicans had greater influence in selecting Republican nominees for President, than grassroots Republicans. There are only 2 notable exceptions when the establishment candidate did not win - 1964 and 1980.
In 1964, the Republican establishment was deeply divided. Three Republican candidates from extremely wealthy, Old Money, WASP families were on the ballot. They were Governor Nelson Rockefeller from New York, Governor William Scranton from Pennsylvania, and former Senator Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. from Massachusetts. Lodge did not formally enter the race for President, but his supporters put him on the ballot as a write-in candidate probably with his covert support, in an effort to stop Rockefeller. The division in the Republican establishment created an opportunity for the anti-establishment candidate, Barry Goldwater, to snatch the nomination. Many members of the Republican establishment were outraged by Goldwater's nomination, and they ended up supporting Democrat Lyndon Johnson in the November election.
In the case of Reagan, he developed a large number of admirers among pro-life Democrat working class Catholics and evangelical Protestants, in his 1976 run for the Republican nomination. Gerald Ford, the 1976 Republican nomination winner, was a weak pro-lifer, and his wife, Betty, was an open pro-abortion activist. It was Reagan's pro-life Republican followers who put the pro-life plank in the Republican platform in 1976. In 1980, working class pro-life Democrats, who did not usually vote in Republican primaries, registered for the Republican primary to vote for Reagan. These were the so-called Reagan Democrats. The Republican establishment candidate, George H W Bush, was defeated, but he got the VP's job.
Right now, the WASP Republican establishment has lined up behind Jeb Bush. Wealthy Republican Catholics have also lined up behind Jeb, because he is the first Catholic (although a convert from Waspish Protestantism) with the best chance to become a Republican President.
The vast majority of Tea Partiers cannot afford exclusive country club memberships. But they can console themselves by recognizing that, even RINO Republican Presidents have a good record of delivering excellent Supreme Court Justices. If the Democrats were to control the Supreme Court from 2016 to 2024, life would be unbearable for patriotic Americans.
Because it’s his turn?
Which means a Dem wins the presidency
I’ll be the first to say it. I’m not voting for Jeb. I’ll vote for just about anyone else if needed, just not Jeb.
No. No. No. No. Hell no.
The GOP is dumber than rocks.
Bush was “picked” because the MSM
cannot wait to spring Schiavo
and his brother on him, and he
will bring out fewer voters than RomneyCARE.
Yes, boys and girls, the fix is in.
The media wants Jeb. They know that at least 47% will automatically vote against a Republican and they’ll have fun beating down another Bush. Heck, 1/2 the people won’t even notice it’s not George Bush.
All the Democrat media says it will be Jeb v. Hillary, so even a broken-down nag such as Hillary will be able to win this race. The RNC specializes in backing yet another Loser for the GOP..
I am sure Maryland GOPs will too, just like they did for Dole, Romney and McCain.
Because the GOP likes to pick losers.
This is not the RNC per se - it’s the donor class and establishment hacks. I’m no fan of the RNC, but this is not their doing.
Yep, because I’m not voting for him under any circumstances.
Jeb winning is the conventional wisdom...inside Washington.....which usually turns out to be false
He is not winning the nomination. I don’t care how much money he’s raised.
The son Bob Dole never had...
And see, I’m the opposite.
I’d happily vote for Jeb over Paul, Christie, Mittens, Ryan and the like.
I will definitely vote against him in the general if he does.
MR pulling out was a huge advantage to JB. The only other major GOPe threat to JB now is Chris Christie.
If you have a dozen or so conservatives running on JB’s right flank, JB could very will the GOP nomination .
That’s how GOPes and RINOs usually win, by divide and conquer.
Movement conservatives’ best chances are when we’re united behind a single candidate such as in 1964 and 1980.
That would be consoling only if Jeb had a good chance to become president against Hildebeest. He doesn't.
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