Posted on 02/11/2015 2:49:21 PM PST by blam
Andy Kiersz
February 11, 2015
The Powerball lottery drawing for Wednesday evening has an estimated jackpot prize of $500 million.
While that's a huge amount of money, buying a ticket is still probably a losing proposition.
Consider the expected value
When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value". The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.
Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes: If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run, the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Dammit. Now I am going to have to go out and buy a ticket.
There is no possibility that I will ever agree with RatherBiased.
The thing is, someone will win. Someone will beat the odds. The only way to make sure it ISN’T you is to not buy a ticket.
I’d rather have a vanishingly small chance than Zero chance.
If you don’t play, you can’t loose.
I’d fully fund FR for a few years.
Your odds of winning don’t change. The odds are the odds. The chances of sharing is affected by the size of the jackpots.
That was good--thanks.
I know. Isn’t it amazing that you could buy two tickets with numbers chosen at random and not get a single winner. One time I bought 5 quick pics. Out of the five sets of numbers...not one of the winning set.
Its worth the money as a fantasy. I buy lottery tickets about once very 25 years, but forgot to this time.
Dang. There goes the Bentley I was scoping out.
Well, once you understand that the bet is a “losing proposition”, you are free then to enjoy the “thrill”.
You know, people will pay $5 to step into a batting cage and hit a ball. They will never get that money back. But they might get to hit a baseball a few times, and if they enjoy it, that is money well spent.
A lot of people will play the lottery, because it will be “fun” to pick a number, and watch to see if that number wins. So they are paying for the enjoyment.
That shouldn’t be a buzzkill.
Well, you’d really do well if you take out a huge life insurance policy, then die within two years.
Exactly. If you buy a ticket with disposable income, what's the harm? It's just fun. It's the people who spend beyond that amount that have a problem.
Once in a while, my wife and I go to a casino and spend (no pun intended) a few fun hours at the 25 cent slot machines. We go slowly, one turn at a time. During those few hours we spend (again no pun intended), between the two of us what we might have spent at a show. Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose. If we win, we go to the casino restaurant and have a nice dinner. It's a fun night out, spending nothing more than disposable income - nothing more. You can curse us, tell us we're miserable hell-bound heathens, I don't care.
I like that idea.
Use two trusts to claim the prize if your state allows it.
Yeah.
It’s just fun to dream. A dollar or two every few months, which is what I spend on the lotto, costs less than soda pop.
The very first day, he started the very first class with this line:
"I am going to teach you how to make money gambling."
Well! That got our attention!
He went on: "If a game returns ten dollars for a one dollar bet, and the odds are 11 to 1, it is a BAD BET. Do not play. If, however, a game returns ten dollars for a one dollar bet, and the odds are 9 to 1, it is a GOOD BET. Play until you are a multimillionare."
With that one set of lines, he turned ALL of us into non-players of state lotteries.
Perhaps that was his goal. :)
Actually, I *consistently* win by not playing. See my explanation, above.
:)
I only ever join the office pool. Not with the expectation of us winning, but with the desire to NOT be the guy who didn’t buy a ticket when THEY win. Actually given my luck buying in pretty much guarantees we don’t win, but I’m not staying behind while everybody else retires.
Miserable hell-bound heathens never DO care.
;)
Most of the big winners seem to be lovable misfits and crazies... that has to push the odds a bit more in your favor.
LOL
You.... I’ll get you for that.
:)
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