The $500 Million Powerball Jackpot And Why It's Not Worth Buying A Ticket

BI ^ | 2-11-2015 | Andy Kiersz

[blam]

Andy Kiersz
February 11, 2015

The Powerball lottery drawing for Wednesday evening has an estimated jackpot prize of $500 million.

While that's a huge amount of money, buying a ticket is still probably a losing proposition.

Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value". The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes: If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run, the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me.

(snip)

[GeronL]

Yes, she’d be looking out for me then. lol.

[rightwingcrazy]

Depends on your circumstances. If you need $500M PDQ for a life-saving surgery, say, the expected value would be high, even if the odds are vanishingly low.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Now THAT was funny.

[dmz]

I tend to agree with you, having said that I bought some tix for tonight’s drawing,

My wife and I talk about how it would be better to win a small prize, you know, a couple of mil, to make retirement (a few years away) a bit more comfy.

But here in MD, winners can stay anonymous. LOL. Like that would work with the big mouths in my family. Maybe I could buy their silence.

[mware]

Looking for lightning to strike for the 3rd time.

Two of my brothers have won 300K and 280K in the lottery last year(one month apart from each other)

[Zman516]

I read that that odds of winning tonight are about 258.9 million to 1.

I like to visualize that by imagining 5 million decks of cards stacked atop each other which would be about 47 miles high. Within that 47 miles, there is one joker. Now imagine that “deck” laid down along a 47-mile stretch of road. You start at one end and drive along side. At some point you decide to stop and pull out one card. If it isn’t the joker, you’ve lost.

[EEGator]

I’m beyond help. :)

I’ve accepted it, and I’m just enjoying the ride.

[Manic_Episode]

I get some pretty crazy thoughts about what I'd do with that much money.
That alone is worth $2

[Stand Watch Listen]

> It would cost you to $350,000,000 to buy every single number. After taxes, you would take the loss.>

No, the $350 million would be gambling losses.

No, the $350 million $349,999,998 would be gambling losses. ...;)

[bobby.223]

Okay, I’ll toss in the MP-25 Raven......

[Mad Dawgg]

"My brother-in-law always went on about how most lotto winners were broke in a couple years... I told him that was because they gave money to their in-laws, and that I wouldn’t make that mistake."

[Truthsearcher]

Since the order in which the first 5 balls shows up does not matter.

You divide that number by 5*4*3*2*1=120

So 21,026,821,200/120=175,223,510

[Rodamala]

...happy at the substantial ANONYMOUS gift

I’m going to buy myself a Congressman

Freepathlons would be a thing of the past, we would have our own FR caucus on Capitol Hill, and you would be given your very own ZOT9000

[dmz]

Pretty much the nature of all gambling outfits, right? The game is rigged for the house to win and in this game, the house is the taxation agencies.

Your point is spot on.

But you’re a total buzz kill.

[TYVets]

As Dan Rather once reported the odds of winning are 185,000,000 to 1.

He added if you don't buy a ticket your chances of winning are just as good as if you bought a ticket.

As seen on CBS Nightly News date unknown.

[moovova]

I know I’d never win “one” $500 million prize, but I’d feel like I had a better chance to win a single million dollar prize...if there were 500 chances.

As the “jackpot” money pours in, each time a million mark is hit, that million is lopped off and becomes another million dollar prize. The more people that buy jackpot tickets, the more chances there are.

I think even more people would play...thereby bumping the total number of “smaller” million dollar prizes up even more.

[cripplecreek]

“The lottery is a tax on people that are bad at math”

Without inept and corrupt politicians, lotteries can be a great means of funding various projects. Our founders used lotteries a lot.

Think of it an elective tax.

[Proud2BeRight]

So far, I’ve done well on Powerball. I’ve never purchased a ticket. The money saved adds up over time.

[Vermont Lt]

These types of stories come up every time the jackpot grows.

Yes, the odds of winning are minuscule.

But, for a couple of bucks, it’s more fun than a beer.

[Domandred]

I buy 4 separate tickets with the same number....

My chances don’t change but if some other screw head picks my numbers my share is larger than his or hers :)