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Does Immigration Harm Working Americans?
The Atlantic ^ | 05 Jan 2015 | David Frum

Posted on 01/07/2015 8:38:44 AM PST by Theoria

Many economists say no—but they may be too glib.

The job news is increasingly good: 321,000 jobs created in November. Yet the national economic mood remains grimly bleak.

Many Americans feel a sharp distinction between what’s said about “the” economy and what they experience in “their” economy. At the top of the income distribution, wages are rising. In the middle and bottom, wages stagnate. Jobs are created, yes—but native-born Americans are not hired for them.

Last month, the Center for Immigration Studies released its latest jobs study. CIS, a research organization that tends to favor tight immigration policies, found that even now, almost seven years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, 1.5 million fewer native-born Americans are working than in November 2007, the peak of the prior economic cycle. Balancing the 1.5 million fewer native-born Americans at work, there are 2 million more immigrants—legal and illegal—working in the United States today than in November 2007. All the net new jobs created since November 2007 have gone to immigrants. Meanwhile, millions of native-born Americans, especially men, have abandoned the job market altogether. The percentage of men aged 25 to 54 who are working or looking for work has dropped to the lowest point in recorded history.


Labor Force Participation Rate Among Men Aged 25 to 54, 2004-2014

                                                                                     Bureau of Labor Statistics    

(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Government
KEYWORDS: aliens; corporatewelfare; economy; h1b; illegal; illegalalien; immigration; jobs; nafta
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1 posted on 01/07/2015 8:38:44 AM PST by Theoria
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To: Theoria

The last statistic I read was that there were 92 million Americans who were not in the labor force, and that the jobs are going to immigrants and illegals. I don’t see how someone can state that this doesn’t harm working Americans, unless it is a parsing of words. If someone is working, then immigrants aren’t hurting that person’s employment. Otherwise, let’s deport all persons who are in this country illegally and see what happens to the employment rate and job participation.


2 posted on 01/07/2015 8:46:43 AM PST by Enterprise ("Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." Voltaire)
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To: Theoria

I now have a non-native delivering my mail who speaks broken English and misdelivers mail constantly, tell me again about how they can’t get Americans to do the jobs?


3 posted on 01/07/2015 8:46:45 AM PST by BlackAdderess ("Give me a but a firm spot on which to stand, and I shall move the earth". --Archimedes)
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To: Theoria

We’ve all known that for years. Ain’t no democracy anymore just crony capitalism.


4 posted on 01/07/2015 8:48:37 AM PST by Ciexyz
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To: Theoria

Illegal immigration suppresses wages.


5 posted on 01/07/2015 8:49:15 AM PST by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters for Freedom and Rededication to the Principles of the U.S. Constitution)
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To: Theoria
I'm not reading the article because David Frum. But I'm guessing his answer is "no."

Here's my answer to David Frum:



Federal court upholds U.S. flag ban on Cinco de Mayo; lawyer vows to take case to U.S. Supreme Court

6 posted on 01/07/2015 9:00:09 AM PST by Maceman
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To: Theoria

Yes, next question.


7 posted on 01/07/2015 9:00:28 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: Maceman

He says their arguments might sound logical and meritorious, but what they use to justify all the immigration isn’t what happens. So yeah, it does harm Americans.


8 posted on 01/07/2015 9:09:31 AM PST by BlackAdderess ("Give me a but a firm spot on which to stand, and I shall move the earth". --Archimedes)
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To: dfwgator

” Yes, next question.”

Not a tough call.


9 posted on 01/07/2015 9:14:11 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker (The only people in the world who fear Obama are American citizens.)
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To: Maceman
Allow me to add:

10 posted on 01/07/2015 9:20:04 AM PST by Oatka (This is America. Assimilate or evaporate.)
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To: Theoria

If there is one thing we can blame for the destruction of America it is the change from a constitutional republic to a democracy.

Democracy is nothing but a satanic agenda to make people think they are ruling them selves when the constitutional republic was the actual machine that allowed the people to rule.


11 posted on 01/07/2015 9:21:12 AM PST by ravenwolf
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To: Theoria

Native-born Americans are not in the democrats play book they need the stupid and hungry to keep them in power until full socialism in enacted.
Obama has gained more ground in six years then his party has in fifty years Ted Kennedy expected to come back to life soon.


12 posted on 01/07/2015 9:22:34 AM PST by Vaduz
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To: Theoria
It's over!

Most are either unaware or in denial.

13 posted on 01/07/2015 9:24:10 AM PST by VideoDoctor
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To: Vaduz
Nor does the GOP need native workers. Cheap imports and outsourcing is also not a issue on the 'right'.

This idea that any main party cares about immigration enforcement has always been a chuckle.

14 posted on 01/07/2015 9:25:30 AM PST by Theoria (I should never have surrendered. I should have fought until I was the last man alive)
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To: Theoria

Agree it’s not going to get any better soon they have to feel the wrath of the people.


15 posted on 01/07/2015 9:32:18 AM PST by Vaduz
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To: dfwgator
Frum won't believe you until it happens to him, he thinks his industry is immune. He's wrong
16 posted on 01/07/2015 9:39:57 AM PST by Sgt_Schultze (A half-truth is a complete lie)
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To: Theoria

Something else that nobody is talking about, nobody at all. If white fifty-year-old electrical engineers with spotless records are not finding jobs, just think how black unskilled youth must be feeling, especially with so many of their cohorts whispering in their ears about people not hiring them because RACISM. This group is suffering under staggering unemployment numbers and chatter you are going to ignore if things are going well for you is going to take on all new relevance when you are stuck and start looking for an explanation for what is happening to you.

At some level someone knows this and is very cynically blaming it on ANYTHING but unchecked immigration (legal and illegal).


17 posted on 01/07/2015 9:45:44 AM PST by BlackAdderess ("Give me a but a firm spot on which to stand, and I shall move the earth". --Archimedes)
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To: Enterprise
If someone is working, then immigrants aren’t hurting that person’s employment.

It destroys wages.

There is no fare market wage when foreigners are imported by the millions, to make sure that wages stay low.

What is a survival job today, used to be a solid job that could support a family.

18 posted on 01/07/2015 12:33:27 PM PST by ansel12 (Civilization, Crusade against the Mohammedan Death Cult.)
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To: 3Fingas
Illegal immigration suppresses wages.

Immigration suppresses wages, the only difference between legal and illegal is how quickly they get to vote for the democrats and collect welfare.

19 posted on 01/07/2015 12:36:11 PM PST by ansel12 (Civilization, Crusade against the Mohammedan Death Cult.)
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To: Theoria
I'd like to add some federal government data that includes the immigrant data, participation rate and lots more.

Getting ready for Obama's State of the Union lies.

I have attempted to
  • find the appropriate federal government data,
  • format it for print here
  • provide links to the original, and
  • help prove that the Obama Administration and MSM employees are liars.

Labor Force Statistics from the Census Bureau Current Population Survey (CPS) and other federal sources.

NOTE: when quarterly data are used I display the fourth quarter annualized data. So 2014 qtr one and the -2.1 GDP is not shown here, for example. The annualized data for 2014 qtr three are shown for the year 2014.

See below for table information.

Column headings

  1. Population
  2. Civilian noninstitutional population [thousands]
  3. Civilian labor force [thousands]. Hover column 4. to access
  4. Civilian labor force participation rate
  5. Employed [thousands]
  6. Employment-population ratio
  7. Employed full time (persons who usually work 35 hours or more) [thousands]
  8. Employed part time (persons who usually work less than 35 hours. Hover Col 7. to access
  9. Unemployed [thousands]
  10. Unemployed looking for full-time work [thousands]
  11. Unemployment rate
  12. Unemployment rate of the full-time labor force
  13. Not in labor force [thousands]

N = not available.Some columns are omitted to fit desired columns on a PC screen. The additional columns are explained below.

Year 4. 6. 7. 13.
1948 58.8 56.6 N N
1949 59.4 55.3 N N
1950 59.2 56.8 N N
1951 59.4 57.4 N N
1952 59.0 57.3 N N
1953 58.5 56.3 N N
1954 58.5 55.4 N N
1955 60.0 57.5 N N
1956 59.8 57.3 N N
1957 59.5 56.6 N N
1958 59.3 55.6 N N
1959 59.3 56.0 N N
1960 59.6 55.9 N N
1961 59.0 55.3 N N
1962 58.6 55.3 N N
1963 58.7 55.4 N N
1964 58.5 55.6 N N
1965 58.9 56.5 N N
1966 59.5 57.3 N N
1967 59.9 57.5 N N
1968 59.6 57.6 65503 N
1969 60.3 58.1 66929 N
1970 60.4 56.9 66654 N
1971 60.3 56.7 67622 N
1972 60.4 57.2 70115 N
1973 61.1 58.2 72560 N
1974 61.3 57.2 72825 N
1975 61.1 56.0 72269 60028
1976 61.8 57.0 74532 60120
1977 62.6 58.5 77922 59846
1978 63.5 59.7 81416 59541
1979 63.8 60.0 83345 60131
1980 63.7 59.0 82648 61252
1981 63.8 58.5 82799 61933
1982 64.1 57.3 80606 62087
1983 64.1 58.6 83997 62790
1984 64.5 59.8 87458 62876
1985 64.9 60.4 89259 62730
1986 65.4 60.9 91297 62778
1987 65.7 61.9 93914 62874
1988 66.1 62.6 95927 62765
1989 66.5 63.0 98015 62570
1990 66.4 62.3 98285 63797
1991 66.1 61.4 96973 64982
1992 66.3 61.4 97949 65276
1993 66.3 61.9 99952 65879
1994 66.7 63.0 101003 65739
1995 66.5 62.8 102217 66738
1996 67.0 63.5 104753 66444
1997 67.1 64.0 107293 67019
1998 67.2 64.2 109129 67666
1999 67.1 64.4 111415 68669
2000 66.9 64.3 114163 70616
2001 66.7 63.0 112610 71901
2002 66.4 62.5 112942 73403
2003 66.1 62.2 113947 75461
2004 66.0 62.4 115204 76413
2005 66.0 62.8 117753 77164
2006 66.3 63.3 120658 77503
2007 66.0 62.8 121621 79291
2008 65.9 61.4 118281 80102
2009 64.9 58.4 110906 83148
2010 64.4 58.3 111653 84913
2011 64.0 58.5 113268 86452
2012 63.7 58.7 115616 88745
2013 62.8 58.5 116845 91616
2014 62.8(III) 59.0(III) 118797(III) 92285(III)
pop.
146630
149190
152270
154880
157550
160180
163030
165930
168900
171980
174880
177830
180670
183690
186540
189240
191890
194300
196560
198710
200710
202680
205050
207660
209900
211910
213850
215970
218040
220240
222580
225060
227220
229470
231660
233790
235820
237920
240130
242290
244500
246820
249620
252980
256510
259920
263130
266280
269390
272650
275850
279040
282160
284970
287630
290110
292810
295520
298380
301230
304090
306770
309330
311590
313910
316160
319470
one* two** three***
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N N
N N 43,558
N N 45,435
N N 47,124
N N 46,759
N N 46,304
N N 48,287
N N 49,262
N N 47,702
N N 46,453
N N 47,224
N N 47,523
N N 49,362
N N 49,225
N N 47,668
N N 46,877
N N 46,751
N N 46,425
N N 47,866
N N 48,761
N N 50,488
N N 51,121
N N 51,514
N N 52,432
N N 51,735
N N 50,249
N N 49,836
N N 49,594
N N 50,148
N N 51,719
N N 52,471
N N 53,551
N N 55,497
N N 56,895
N N 56,800
N N 55,562
N N 54,913
N N 54,865
N N 54,674
N N 55,278
N N 55,689
123524 22810 56,436
121211 22138 54,423
116663 21290 54,059
117006 22153 52,646
118033 22647 51,842
119844 23216 51,759
120636 23787 51,939
122558 25108 N
labor labor median
force force income
domestic foreign
born born
[1000s] [1000s]
Recession
November 1948 to
October 1949
-
-
-
July 1953 to
May 1954
-
-
August 1957 to
April 1958
-
April 1960 to
February 1961
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
December 1969 to
November 1970
-
-
November 1973
to
March 1975
-
-
-
-
Jan to Jul 1980
July 1981 to
November 1982
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
July 1990 to
March 1991
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mar - Nov 2001
-
-
-
-
-
December 2007
to
June 2009
-
-
-
-
-
GDP
2,020.0
2,008.9
2,184.0
2,360.0
2,456.1
2,571.4
2,556.9
2,739.0
2,797.4
2,856.3
2,835.3
3,031.0
3,108.7
3,188.1
3,383.1
3,530.4
3,734.0
3,976.7
4,238.9
4,355.2
4,569.0
4,712.5
4,722.0
4,877.6
5,134.3
5,424.1
5,396.0
5,385.4
5,675.4
5,937.0
6,267.2
6,466.2
6,450.4
6,617.7
6,491.3
6,792.0
7,285.0
7,593.8
7,860.5
8,132.6
8,474.5
8,786.4
8,955.0
8,948.4
9,266.6
9,521.0
9,905.4
10,174.8
10,561.0
11,034.9
11,525.9
12,065.9
12,559.7
12,682.2
12,908.8
13,271.1
13,773.5
14,234.2
14,613.8
14,873.7
14,830.4
14,418.7
14,783.8
15,020.6
15,369.2
15,710.3
16,205.6(III)
Billions
2009
dollars
DPCERY2
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
1.88
-0.59
3.98
5.63
-0.69
-3.49
2.61
3.23
3.62
1.93
0.61
3.32
-1.8
4.51
4.06
3.29
0.62
1.62
0.57
2.93
1.13
-1.96
-0.07
3.08
2.33
2.83
1.83
2.08
3.07
3.88
3.93
2.35
4.06
1.44
2.12
2.78
1
2.75
0.34
-3.16
-0.01
2.79
0.94
1.32
2.51
2.21

*,**One & Two: Source: to find the tables go here Data Retrieval: Labor Force Statistics (CPS)

HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted [Numbers in thousands]
Employment status and nativity. Then

Scroll down to "Retrieve Data"

The data that I include above are from the month of December except for 2014 where November is the last month with data available.

***Three: For the Census Bureau income data go here. Choose "Consumer Income Reports (P60)" then choose "P60-249 Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013" (pdf file).

Table Information
I've combined several tables into one. Most of the tables were obtained here: go to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Force Statisics from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Make your selections. I chose quarterly data.

I took the fourth quarter data from each table and combined them into the main part of the table above. For the year 2014 I took the third quarter data and marked the data with (III).

pop. Population data
Go hereU.S. population and US Census clock, Dec 22, 2014 319.47 million

Employment-population ratio
Employment-population ratio defined in BLS art4full.pdf file.

Civilian labor force participation rate
Civilian labor force participation rate defined in BLS art4full.pdf file.

Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate of the full-time labor force defined in BLS art4full.pdf file.

Recession
CENSUS BUREAU, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS SOURCES
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Cambridge MA 02138 US Business Cycle Expansions and ContractionsLink from BLS SPOTLIGHT ON STATISTICS THE RECESSION OF 2007 – 2009

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

GDP in billions of chained 2009 dollars (Seasonally adjusted annual rates)
GDP 1929 - 2014

DPCERY2 Personal consumption expenditures
The GDP Personal consumption expenditures percentage
hover GDP Personal consumption expenditures percentage for Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
If you are not at Gross Domestic Product (GDP) search for it.
It should be on page http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm.

Then click on

  • "Interactive Tables: GDP and the National Income and Product Account (NIPA) Historical Tables"; that page should be
  • National Data GDP & Personal Income;
  • click on "Begin using the data"; that page should be
  • National Data National Income and Product Accounts Tables; click on Advanced Download Section; that page should be
  • Download NIPA Tables and it is where you can download series of tables.

I did not know which tables to look for so I chose to download them all in csv format. I clicked on Section 1 (2852.7k)

I used Table 1.1.2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
; Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
Quarterly data from 1969 To 2014
Bureau of Economic Analysis. I took the fourth quarter for each year. For 2014 I took the third quarter percentage.

Footnotes

N Not available.

Z Represents or rounds to zero.

20 posted on 01/07/2015 1:08:02 PM PST by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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