Investment & Finance Thread (week July 6 - July 12 edition) [my title: The Economy Looks Great!]

Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | July 6, 2014 | Freeper Investors

[expat_panama]

 

Huh. 

While coming into the second half of 2014 we just had the GDP and employment rpts, and what happened is we got what seemed to be contradictory -2.7% and +6.3 bombshells.    On the other hand (Truman hated economists saying that) a look at the year over year GDP return along with the employment/population ratio puts the two together.

[click to enlarge]

The reason GDP growth looks solid is because that -2.7% was just one Qtr to the next, so last week's rpt tells us more about how good Q4 was than it does about how bad Q1 turned out.  Something else is the fact that over this past 1/2 year employment/population is finally making a move --a move we've not seen since the "recovery" began in '09.

 

 

 

OK, so last week I said "IMHO we're in an economy where we can still make money but it's just going to take more effort", but judging how stocks'n'metals are now rising up from this year's base there's reason to think that it may not take as much effort after all...

 

This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--

Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.   Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy.

[expat_panama]

When they propose confiscating wealth from 401k’s is when the shooting starts...

--which is why it will most likely be simply put into affect without any overtly announced proposal before hand.  Another bet is that it'll happen in stages beginning with raising the existing taxes (aka SEC fees) on stock trades--(Democrats revive financial transaction tax idea | Reuters) and then stepping up the war on the wealthy with say, a national property tax.

[expat_panama]

abandoning stocks for safer havens

fwiw, yesterday I closed all my individual stock positions and am now down to ETF's and mutual funds.  This is part for market timing but mostly just going with what's been working best.

[Wyatt's Torch]

On a separate note...

[expat_panama]

tx!

There are a lot of sides to the current econ climate, and it takes a bit of effort to hold back the negativism. Was thinking of how often on these threads that more bank loans is a good things, but more people going into debt is a bad thing.

Go figure.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Like it or not credit is the lifeblood of economic activity. This is a very positive sign for economic activity and for monetary policy.

[expat_panama]

...credit is the lifeblood of economic activity...

True, and that means over the past few years the private sector has been anemic while the federal governments shows signs of hemorrhaging.  All things considered though my personal view is of a guarded recovery in both areas.

[Chgogal]

Well, well! Lookie here.

Fed, Confident in Economy, Details End of Bond-Buying Program
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-confident-economy-details-end-180158795.html

[Aquamarine]

Stock tip of the day - sell Costco.

[MichaelCorleone]

Thanks for your input. I’ve come to lean on your insights on the weekly thread to check on what I’m doing and/or thinking. And I’ll bet I’m not the only one either.

It’s scary to think of the possibility that some or all of the money you’ve worked and sacrificed for can so easily be taken away from you for no other reason than they ‘just need it’.

Thanks again.

[expat_panama]

Whoa, we're really looking at a fight from stocks to metals now!  Yesterday's metals gains now have futures traders charging in while yesterday's modest stock come back in light volume (AKA "dead cat bounce") now sees futures traders fleeing.   Also for today's festivities are scheduled Initial + Continuing Claims along with Wholesale + Gas Inventories.

Reuters  Global markets still shaky despite Fed assurance  Faith in a rally in share prices dating back almost three years has more shaky over the past month than for some time, as the Fed nears what looks like a definitive end to its program of new money-printing. The minutes from the U.S. central bank's last meeting, published after European markets had closed on Wednesday, offered no sign it was any closer to following that with a swift rise in official interest rates to cool the economy.

China says it's up to US to drive global economy BEIJING (AP) — China's finance minister said Wednesday that the country is not planning any new stimulus measures and it is up to the United States to drive the global economy. Associated Press

'Gridlock' Is What's Reviving the U.S. Economy - Merrill Matthews, Forbes

[expat_panama]

insights on the weekly thread to check

Seems contradictory but the fact that nobody knows what's going on is a very good reason to keep in touch with others' thinking, reality being somewhere in between us all.   I know I'm constantly helped out here; my take is the same as yours that we're watching to fronts, how to make more money and how to keep what we got.

[BipolarBob]

all of the money you’ve worked and sacrificed for can so easily be taken away from you for no other reason than they ‘just need it’.

History proves large tyrannical governments do just that. Do you really think Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi or Barrack Hussein Obama care that you worked and sacrificed to get that money?

[Wyatt's Torch]

China says it’s up to US to drive global economy BEIJING (AP) — China’s finance minister said Wednesday that the country is not planning any new stimulus measures and it is up to the United States to drive the global economy. Associated Press

Interesting. Accurate though. China is highly dependent on US consumerism which remains sluggish. What concerns me is China having a hard landing from real estate. Nit sure their governmental model can manage a soft landing.

[Wyatt's Torch]

This Portuguese Bank Stock Is Crashing And Its Leading Markets Into The Red

The parent company of Banco Espirito Santo, Portugal’s second-largest bank, missed debt payments to “a few clients,” according to a Bloomberg report, and markets are freaking out.

Shares of Banco Espirito Santo trading in Lisbon were down more than 17% on Thursday.

Google Finance

The Portuguese stock market was also down about 4% after the news. Stocks across Europe were also broadly lower. In the U.S., stock futures are also lower.

Citing a statement from Espirito Santo, Bloomberg reported that Espirito is “currently assessing the financial impact of its exposure.

Yesterday, Moody’s downgraded the debt ratings of Espirito Santo Financial Group, which is the largest shareholder of Espirito Santo International, according to Bloomberg, with Moody’s saying its, “concerns regarding ESFG’s creditworthiness are heightened by the lack of transparency around both the Espirito Santo Group’s financial position and the extent of intra-group linkages including ESFG’s direct and indirect exposure to ESI.”

Uncertainty also seems to have reached the Spanish banking sector as well. According to reports from both Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal, Banco Popular Espanol postponed a planned debt sale, citing adverse market conditions.

Shares of Banco Popular trading in Madrid were down more than 4%.

The news has also spooked investors who are concerned about how uncertainty in the Spanish and Portuguese financial sectors could impact assets across the Eurozone.

Bloomberg cited comments from Adrian Miller, director of fixed-income strategy at GMP Securities, who said in a note to clients, “Should the Portuguese situation continue to deteriorate, risk aversion contagion could quickly spread to other euro zone member states’ bonds and other asset classes.”

The news of missed debt payments by Espirito Santo International also comes on the heels of discouraging economic data out of the Eurozone.

Earlier today, inflation data out of France showed that its economy is teetering. Industrial production fell 3.7% in May and with consumer prices rising just 0.5% in June, concerns about deflation risks in France are increasing.

Industrial production data out of Italy also disappointed, with production falling 1.2% in May.

The Eurozone’s recovery from the sovereign debt crisis has been about improving situations in the economic bloc’s peripheral economies like Italy and Portugal, and this new batch of uncertainty in Portugal’s financial sector is not sitting well with investors.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Espirito Santo -17,4%

UBI Banca -5,3%
Unicredit -4,3%
BBVA -4%
Commerzbank -3,9%
Soc Gen -3,7%
Credit Agricole -3,7%
Barclays -3,4%

[expat_panama]

That’s far more than the general market, looking more like a contraction in the “financials” up in post #27.

[Wyatt's Torch]

All euro banks related to Espirito Santo’s drop as well as French economic numbers.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

Hot stock tip/ SARCASM

Cynk Surges 36,000% as Buzz Builds for 1-Employee Company

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/cynk-surges-36-000-as-buzz-builds-for-1-employee-company.html?cmpid=yhoo

[expat_panama]

It's Friday and the adventure continues!   Yesterday's expected rocket metals and torpedo stocks ended up w/ mixed metals and "off a bit" stocks.  Now futures are expecting the reverse of those two and we wrap up reports this week at 2PM w/ the Treasury Budget.  The latest from the Nobody-Knows-Nuttin' News Service:

• European Stocks Rise, Rebounding From Five-Day Decline   Businessweek
• Markets bounce after Portugal banks trigger sell-off: live   Telegraph.co.uk
• Oil slips towards $108, heading for 3rd weekly loss Reuters - 4 hours ago ... * IEA says markets well supplied but risks "extraordinarily high". * "Little room for complacency" in oil markets, IEA says.
• Obama, corporate giants announce plan to boost suppliers Reuters - an hour ago WASHINGTON, July 11 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama is enlisting several major U.S. and multinational companies to draw attention to an initiative aimed at helping small businesses expand and hire workers.
• Rising bond yields point to rate rises Financial Times - 3:08am Investors' radar screens have long been clear of the one blip guaranteed to sound the alarm in financial markets: interest rate rises by central banks.
• In Jobs, GDP Data, a Baffling Contradiction - Floyd Norris, New York Times
• Dow 17,000 Is Just a Number, Not a Milestone - Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch
• What Good Is a Crash to Prevent a Crash? - Noah Smith, Bloomberg

[expat_panama]

Amazing, zero earnings and the guy raises $6B in stock sales --all perfectly legal! One more reason why I like to steer clear of Over-the-Counter (OTC) stocks, they got reporting rules that are a LOT more lax.