Posted on 02/09/2014 4:25:22 PM PST by neverdem
With the advent of this election year, the time to turn from generalities/playing field pieces to tracking specific races is fast approaching. But before picking up my series on competitive Senate races (I wrote on three with relatively well-formed dynamics last year: Kentucky, Montana, and Arkansas), I do have a few more things to say about the playing field.
As a general matter, the journalistic narrative hasn’t yet caught up with the deterioration of the Democrats’ political standing since the early summer. Polls showing tight Senate races in New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Michigan are met with surprise and disbelief. But they are exactly what we’d expect to see given the president’s national job approval rating. I think they’re accurate barometers of the state of the races.
I noted at the end of last year that the Senate playing field in 2014 is substantially worse for Democrats than it was in 2010. If Democrats ultimately suffer losses in marginal seats at the rate they did in 2010, we’d expect them to lose nine to 10 seats. This time, I’m going to take a slightly different tack, and look at these races from the point of view of the president’s job approval.
It’s no secret that I think elections are largely referenda on the party in power. Jay Cost noted in late 2011 that the state-by-state outcomes in the 2004 election corresponded heavily to President Bush’s job approval in the state as measured by exit polls. Bush lost only four states where his job approval was positive, and won zero states where his job approval was negative. Going back to 1972, incumbents rarely win the votes of those who do not approve of them.
This correlation makes perfect sense for presidential elections, but in fact it extends beyond those races...
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...
This seems very simple to me. If serious hard talking conservatives would get out there every chance they get and tell the truth about what’s going on in plain language the American people could be encouraged to get rid of every person up for election who has supported any element of Obama’s destructive agenda. (R)s included!
The schoolyard-bully scu*bags will be running things for a long time to come because they have the support of their fellow schoolyard-bully scu*bags in the electorate.
IMHO
The difference is the MSM carpet bombed Bush. They will be doing everything they can to prop up the Dems this year. A new Big Lie every week from now until November. Don’t count your GOP chickens before they hatch.
Yup - just stay on 3 points. Healthcare, debt and the no-job, no-recovery scam.
Obama’s agenda isn’t destructive to about 45% of the population. It’s rewarding.
If the Republicans were to win all the seats in the House save one they would defer to that one Democrat. If they won ALL the seats in the House the Republicans would simply fall apart and get themselves into as many scandals as they could.
This seems very simple to me. If serious hard talking conservatives would get out there every chance they get and tell the truth about what’s going on in plain language the American people could be encouraged to get rid of every person up for election who has supported any element of Obama’s destructive agenda. (R)s included!
The problem is the GOP is divided and has no consistent message. Even if they did get on a conservative message a back stabber like McCain would be used by the media to blunt the GOP agenda.
Until the GOP finds a core set of values and articulates them they will continue to lose. Cutting vet pay, ignoring the IRS scandals and pushing amnesty is not a path to electoral success for the GOP.
It depends upon several things that might happen, before, or, during the general election: 1.) How much voter fraud occurs; 2.) How many “low information voters” end up voting, in total; 3. If any pro-left activist judges intervene with the election results where a leftist candidate ends up losing the official tally by a small amount of votes; 4.) If the next round of amnesty for illegal immigrants, officially, happens ; and 5.) How many truly conservative voters decide to not vote, in the general election, for any number of reasons.
He doesn’t really care about other democrats, and never really has. Seems pretty obvious to me.
now we hear that the dems are abandoning the house, and trying to save the senate. Obama as been a lot like Clinton; good for himself, bad for everyone else.
Thats almost too funny.
Last i checked, the republican party, generically, is spending more money attempting to defeat other republicans, e.g, establishment vs tea party.
Last i checked the republican leadership is trying to fix obamacare rather than overturn it or say anything bad about it.
Last i checked, the republican leadership pushing amnesty for illegal aliens
Last i checked, the republican party is pretty much irrelevant. Soooooo please tell me again why the democrats are in trouble? Having a hard time seeing this same movie over and over again
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It’s funny, when ole BJ was in office, no Dem wanted him anywhere around their campaign.
Now 15 years later, he’s America’s “most popular” Democrat can’t keep up with the requests.
RINO’s and the MSM are our biggest adversaries in ‘14.
>>Yup - just stay on 3 points. Healthcare, debt and the no-job, no-recovery scam.<<
A soupcon of Benghazi couldn’t hurt.
The MSM can't help much more than marginally. The one person who can torpedo the Senate going R is John Boehner. And, sadly, I think he will do it. He's far more interested in being a high paid K Street whore than he is about the Constitution, liberty, or the future of the country.
As are Ryan, Cantor, and the rest of the traitorous GOPe Chamber of Commerce crony capitalist leeches.
In fighting within the GOP will assure Senate stays democRat in 2014 and Hillary will reign in 2016. Prepare for abortions on demand including late term abortions, single payer government controlled healthcare, gay marriage nationwide, weaker military and Israel, and Higher taxes to start.
Until republicans learn the game of politics, they deserve to remain a minority party, as they have been for most years since FDR.
When people are given simple choices in Q&A they largely turn out to have conservative values. But, they are sold a false image by the media. Real conservatives need to go head to head with libs and media and get the message out there.
If serious hard talking conservatives would get out there every chance they get and tell the truth about what’s going on in plain language the American press will distort their positions beyond recognition and turn every reasonable statement against them. Every favorable issue will be buried.
But, they could use the media to their advantage. Just look at how many videos there are on you tube that are beginning to get sent around. I'm know of a couple who have been awakened by the fact. There must be many, many more across the nation.
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