Posted on 12/31/2012 9:07:36 PM PST by blam
You Know How This Ends Right? This Ends Through War.
Mac Slavo
December 31st, 2012
In 2006, when Americans were flying high on ever-expanding credit and double digit real estate growth, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass came to the conclusion that something was very wrong. He and his investors determined that a massive real estate bubble was forming in sub-prime mortgages. But rather than just making a prediction, they put their money where their mouth was, and took a $4 billion gamble that the real estate market was about to detonate.
At the time, many in the industry and within financial circles thought him crazy.
History, however, proves he was right.
When the real estate bubble did finally burst, stock markets plummeted and mortgage backed securities fell to pennies on the dollar. Bass and his hedge fund made billions in the process.
Bass’ foresight was 20/20, and now he has issued a warning so dire that it, like the real estate crisis and recession that followed, is unimaginable for most Americans.
In many of these situations the quantitative analysis is already done. It’s just a question of when will this unravel and how will it unravel, which I think is the key when we’re thinking about the chronology of events and the likelihood of events going forward.
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Something that I think is really important to pay attention to, in the last 10 years debts around the world – this is total credit market debts, this is on balance sheets, sovereign obligations, corporate debt, household debt – has grown from $80 trillion to just over $200 trillion.
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We sit today at the world’s largest peacetime accumulation of debt in world history…
…You know how this ends right?
This ends through war…
…I don’t know who’s going to fight who, but I’m fairly certain in the next few years you will see wars erupt, and not just small ones…
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You’re going to see more social unrest.
You saw HUGE riots in Greece, and you’re seeing HUGE riots in other parts of the world over food (and lack of food) and those are actually derivatives of the financial problems that we’re seeing. We’re exporting inflation to some other nations. Going forward it’s going to be a problem.
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They’re not going to tell you [that a collapse is coming]. You’re going to have to see it for yourself. [During the Tequila crisis], the Mexican government affirmed they would not default, that they would not devalue, almost daily. The day after they said “we wont devalue,” they devalued by 60%.
The government’s never going to tell you that it’s going to happen.
Greece’s Yunker said recently, ‘When it becomes serious—you have to lie’. These guys are never going to tell you the truth, because they can’t tell you the truth. Their job is to promote confidence, not to tell you the truth.
Watch Kyle Bass: Full Speech at the AmerCatalyst 2012 Conference (Approx 1 hour)
The United States, Europe and the rest of the world have created more debt than has ever existed in the history of the world. Debt is nothing more than a representation (and expectation) of future earnings – future work. But, as many of us know, there has been so much money borrowed that we can’t possible every expect to pay it back. In fact, the only thing we can expect is that we will continue to take on even more debt.
At some point in the (near) future, the plug is going to be pulled and no one is going to lend anyone any more money. We saw this on a small scale in 2008 when credit markets around the world froze up. No one was lending money. There was so much risk that banks not only refused to lend money to individuals and businesses, but they refused to even lend each other money.
Central banks around the world, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve, calmed financial markets by pumping out trillions of dollars in emergency lending. This gave many a perception that things were returning to normal, but as Kyle Bass points out, we are in anything but a normal situation.
Debt has sky rocketed and we’re not going to pay it back – ever.
Like the mafia does when debts don’t get paid, our creditors are eventually going to resort to ‘breaking some legs.’
But we’re talking about debts of entire sovereign nations here, so the tools used to ‘take care of it’ won’t be crowbars or baseball bats, but rather, soldiers, tanks and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
War is coming – just as it has throughout history.
And the 99% of Americans who believe in a benevolent, all knowing, all caring government will be the last ones to get the memo.
Ignore the warnings at your peril.
That might - might - prevent the accumulation of additional debt. Keep the situation from getting even worse.
It would do absolutely nothing to reduce the present debt.
The problem is that each and every debt is also counted as somebody else's asset.
Writing off the debts would mean pensions, and 401ks, and every other investment in the world would suddenly crash.
In the long run, that might be a good thing. In the short run it would be catastrophic for the economy.
What WILL NOT happen is for us to continue into the indefinite future as we have for the last few decades.
When something is truly unsustainable, it won't be sustained.
Paint it black, go for broke.
This could all be avoided so easily. So fast could things go right, if only the productive class quit paying taxes. They hold the purse strings. No government operates without steady revenue; that is the “consent” of the governed.
Quit enabling. If you really think disaster is on the way, war and famine and the rest — surely you can choose the relatively minor risk and inconvenience of ceasing to pay taxes. Legally if you wish, illegally if you dare.
Maybe then you won’t have to stockpile chow and guns — although it sure is exciting, isn’t it?
“The thing is Red China needs us to keep buying what they make, if they nuke us, they lose a huge market. “
Is China neccessarily wedded to markets that are, or might China come up with a grand plan of markets to be? Junk the order of today, suffer some privations along the way, in order to have full power and authority in a new world setup. People are crazy and the old bipolar world kept many ambitions in check. The fall of the USSR is “old” news but the pace of History is slower and finer than the human attention span.
Mexico has a vast underutilized labor force.
You are correct. Of course the US also has large untapped petroleum resources. At 20+ per cent real unemployment the US also has a vastly underutilized labor force, some of whom even speak a form of English.
I would urge everyone to view the Bass speech. He might be the smartest man in America.
Reality can be ugly sometimes, but it still needs to be dealt with.
How will already broke governments finance them without being able to borrow?
Their votes made this all happen.
There supposedly is a plan being worked on that would propose doing just this. it’s “1035 something or other..” I can’t remember the specific name, but the number 1035 is in the name.
Balderdash
So long as New York and San Francisco exist as part of the union, there can be no solution and ultimately no peace.
there must be the elimination of millions not a hand full and mere hundreds.
Purging the offenders is the most humane solution
If Obama signs such a a bill, he is also signing his crucifixion warrant. He will not survive it
No, dear boy, it is NOT. The whole ethanol-from-corn business is barely a blip on the federal spending problem.
Here's a clue.....making ethanol from corn INCREASES the total available amount of food. The only part of the corn that is usable for ethanol production is the carbohydrate fraction, which comprises about 1/3 of the total corn caloric value. Protein and fat fractions are sold and enter the economic food chain, largely as livestock feed supplement, but also as food additives. This is corn that WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN PLANTED without the "ethanol option".
You're dreaming.
The leadership would have the masses eat grass if it meant our ruin.
Did the R candidate propose $1.6 trillion in immediate spending cuts?
Did the R candidate identify sectors of the Federal government and entitlement programs that would be shut down to achieve balance?
No he did not.
What does it matter how many voted for him?
When Europe crashes so will the USA and vice versa. And China will go down the spiraling toilet with everybody else.
Their votes made this all happen.
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We live in evil and untruthful times. Sheep are led and the suffering would be widespread, not just for the sheep. War is a horrible horrible thing. Dont beat a drum when there are more useful solutions.
I disagree.
Removing and banishing leadership is most effective. It worked for the swiss
“One way of dealing with the uncertainty is to be absolutely sure who your friends are, and start digging now to identify potential future threats within your community. Which of your neighbors would be likely to support a regime drifting into tyranny? ID them and file it away in the back of your mind. Update every time you meet or learn about someone new, or when you have to correct initial data. It’s a slightly tinfoil-hat perspective to take, but having an advance notion of who to trust and who to frag could save your life in the chaos of civil conflict. Ugly thing to contemplate.”
For many of us, this is a genetic trait. If we survive our teen years and early twenty years, most of us, probably do the sorting, you discuss above. This sorting/culling with many of tends to get more severe as we age.
I got into the mode you described when I turned 40. Not for the fear of the coming of the end, but do I have the energy and resourses bring this new comer into my various circles.
When I turned 50, I drove my priest, wife, and bosses nut, I refused to waste my time with life’s losers.
Later, the Clintoon years forced me to eliminate most contact with the liberals, who voted for Clinton and loved him. No time for liberal idiots/liars became a non declared personal objective for my 60s.
The election of Obozo in 2008 marked my 70th year, and my selection/elimination process re contacts with others became even more severe. I have basically eliminated any contact with former associates/friends, who turned into total A$$ liberals in their 6th and 7th decade.
After this past election. I’m tightening our circle even more. My wife no longer laughs at my avoidance of liberals. She may be tougher than me re certain issues. She sheds anyone with a sense of Entitlement and a woe is me personality.
One of my uncles was in the 1St Cav in WWII for the duration. He got busted several times from Srgt to cpl when another shortlife green LT would became his platoon leader. Later in deadly combat, the Green Lts would get killed or severly wounded, and my Uncle would end up being the squad leader and promoted back to Srgt. In his last year plus, he ended with a Lt, who had been a Srgt and got a battlefield commmission. My uncle became a permanent Srgt, and he and his Lt surrounded themselves with others who wanted to stay alive and not afraid to kill the enemy.
He copied the Marines and became a self made sniper. His BIL’s and his Dad bought a bolt action 30.06 with a scope and got it to him with a short barrel 12 gauge shotgun when a friend got a leave to come home. He took the guns an shotgun ammo back with him.
Later in hot and deadly combat, when they came up on a battlefield position recently vacated by the Japanese, he would scope out and kill snipers left to kill our guys. The shotgun would be used to kill snipers in palm trees and similiar places. His good Lt assigned a radio man to him, a couple of good shooters and a couple of guys to carry the ammo and gun/guns he wasn’t using. The radio was used to keep in contact with his Lt and to call in artillery to kill the enemy in areas the enemy was entrenched in.
With that background, when he talked and gave his nephews advice, we listened. He was insistant about telling about selecting friends like who, we, could depend on in combat or life. He was a good role model for all of us.
“So long as New York and San Francisco exist as part of the union, there can be no solution and ultimately no peace.”
You left out a few evil/vile blue cities like: LA, Seattle, Detroit, Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, DC, Miami and Houston.
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