University of Colorado Prediction Model: Romney Wins 320 - 218

National Polls ^ | 9/7/12 | staff

[LucianOfSamasota]

If you're following the electoral college predictions on this site, you'd see that all of the major analysts say Obama will win in November.

But one model by the University of Colorado (released in late August) projects Romney to win in a landslide so I wanted to share that here for your review.

From the Colorado.edu news release

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

According to their analysis, ... Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent...

From theDC:

Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight still projects a likely Obama victory.

[LucianOfSamasota]

Interesting prediction from a pretty liberal university.

[bigbob]

Wow...no kidding, CU profs haul bums off the Pearl Street Mall to polling places, so this is kinda hugh...

Don’t tell those DUmmies who are shaking their piggy-banks to get more money to send to Obummer!

[Col Frank Slade]

Any idea what kind of track record this Univ has in polling ?

[Ingtar]

Now that polling shows momentum for Romney in Ohio and Iowa, my weighted method has it as a 269 tie today. The direction of movement is toward Romney as about a month ago it had things 320 - 218 the other way. One caveat: since I am pessimistic about Romney, he is quite possible further ahead already.

[dps.inspect]

All things being equal (under normal circumstances) if the DNC/ Obama show couldn’t fill the Panther’s Stadium (Bank of America Stadium for all of you who feel the need to correct everybody) then how the hell is he going to pull off a win in Nov? I know, I know... with Marxist’s, all things are possible (sorry God)...

[MNDude]

do they have a link to past election predictions?

[erod]

FWIW I remember hearing somewhere that this poll has accurately predicted every president since 1980.

[Perdogg]

I have heard they have gotten every election right since 1980 with the exception of 1.

They are even predicting Romney gets 1 EV from ME.

[erod]

From the source:

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

[kara37]

They have been correct on every election since 1980. I think they even predicted that Bush would win the election, but Gore would win the popular vote.

[Col Frank Slade]

Thanks I hope they’re right again.

[LS]

Interesting also (I think this is what I read) that the Gallup poll just prior to the conventions has predicted every winner, period. (Romney was up one).

[OrangeHoof]

The CU thing is a computer program, not a polling result. It basically looks at the economy of past election years and compares them to this year and extrapolates the results.

The problem I have with their theory is that FDR was re-elected in 1936 and 1940 despite a crappy economy.

[ZULU]

BIGOTS!!! They are BIGOTS I tell you!!!!! Obama is the ONE. He DESERVES to win!!!!!
(Sarcasm)

[matthew fuller]

Just for reference- (Intrade)

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
57.9%
CHANCE

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
41.9%
CHANCE

I’m personally prejudiced toward the University model.
MF

[ScottinVA]

What gives me pause is this model shows Romney taking Pennsylvania. Short of a miracle, I don`t see any way that happens. For Presidential elections, it`s pretty firmly locked down for the dems.

[goldstategop]

The Intrade prediction model hasn’t been wrong yet. It correctly predicted Obama’s win in 2008.

Its far more reliable than any poll since while people can lie to pollster about whom they’ll vote for, they don’t lie about where they put their money.

Material interest is a more powerful predictor of people’s intentions than sentiment, which is inherently changeable.

[ScottinVA]

Really...Minnesota.??? That`s long-ago conquered territory. No friggin` way.

[goldstategop]

The debates are going to decide the election outcome. Obama’s odds look less favorable than they did before the Democratic Convention but he is still the incumbent and Americans are reluctant to vote out a sitting President.

That has happened only twice in the last generation.

[Biggirl]

One of those times was 1980.

But I sense the floodgates have started to be opened up when one Clint Eastwood talked about an “empty chair”.