Posted on 08/27/2012 9:37:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll has Mitt Romney up by a point over Barack Obama 47% to 46%. (46% is a truly horrible number for an incumbent.) But it is going to take more than a few narrow polls to change what I sense to be the widespread mood here that Romney is very narrowly losing, but the race remains winnable.
So it was with great interest that I listened to the thoughts a longtime, much-respected GOP operative, whom I will nickname the Gloomy Guru. Among GG’s observation:
Romney will win North Carolina
Ohio is iffy in GG’s view, though one very smart, very connected Ohio GOPer thinks the state is lost
New Mexico is lost
Colorado looking good
Pennsylvania is fool’s gold, not going to happen
Wisconsin can happen
Virginia will be a dogfight, is critical
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
He should spend money there in order to force Obama to defend it. But if Romney wins Pennsylvania the race will be a historic landslide overall.
OH is not “teetering toward a loss.” Yesterday’s poll was a “tie,” but only achieved with a poll of registered voters and a 5% Dem oversample. Translation: Romney up in OH, MI, WI, IA, and FL. If this guy says CO is safe, that’s the best news I’ve heard in years. Now, if VA is safe, this election is over an it’s only a matter of how many EVs Romney gets.
No he isn’t. Be nice if the doom and gloom choir tried actually reading the polls instead of letting the Enemy media tell them what to think
What I have been seeing as of late is way, way too much oversampling just to make Obama look popular.
Actualy not true. I’ve read many a report that the thing with VA is the demographics have radically changed. There are so many fewer “Virginians” (my birthplace). It is now, mostly transplants from other states who are decidedly liberal. Sadly, VA is trending blue. VA will be close this time I agree. But I’d be quite surprised (based on what I read and the trend lines) if Romney takes it. Sad but true.. The “real Virginians” are now getting fewer.
I have a Democratic insider telling me Obama is toast according to internal polls. Oh look, I’m a reporter.
Afraid so:
Rasmussen has it 52-38 with 9 points for “some other candidate,” likely Gary Johnson. This poll was taken last Tuesday, August 21.
read the comments at the article.
the people there all seemed to impute this to Ed Rollins. Everyone of them said Rollins was incompetent and self serving.
Rollins was mentioned right out of the box in the comment section following the column.
However, Ryan is propping up this ticket single handedly. You can’t pry a plan out of Romney’s mouth, but maybe Ryan can force a conservative commitment out of him, one of plan and substance. Weighted polls or not, Romney appears to barely have his britches on and should be polling a lot better.
Given those structural defects in the polling the fact that the best O can do is a very small lead or a tie is going into the full scale campaign season after the conventions is really really bad news for 0.
He should be comfortably ahead at this point. He took his best shot over the summer and epically failed. I suspect 0 is as high in the polls right now as he is going to get.
maybe Jeb Bush. He is one of the mexican toe suckers. Why dont we just give the whole F-ing country to mexico its gonna end up that way anyway. I am sick to death of the calls to pander to the invaders.
One of my old Commanders used to talk to me about “three o’clock in the morning bravery”. It’s easier to be brave when it’s noon on a sunny day and you’ve had a good nights sleep and your belly is full. We’re coming down to the end of this race. The Democrat press and some turncoats want us to believe the Democrats have this race in the bag. They don’t. Quit standing around wringing your hands about what the Democrats say. Donate some money to the Republicans. Convince some people to vote Republican. Provide rides for Republicans to the polls. I watched centric last night. They are advertising to the black Democrats “Vote as if your life depends on it!” Folks, that’s desperation. Close ranks.....be strong.....present a united front to the enemy.....take heart.....we hold the high ground.....they are wrong on every issue, and Obama’s dismal performance PROVES it. Anyone can talk a good fight....Obama’s been in the ring running around the ropes waiting for the bell to ring.....he has proven he can’t do the job.
The problem is all these “experts” look at polling based on the 2008 turn out model. 2008 was a very abnormally good year for Dems. Their enthusiasm was way way up and their registration was way way way up. in 2012 both their registration and their enthusiasm is way down.
Given those structural defects in the polling the fact that the best O can do is a very small lead or a tie is going into the full scale campaign season after the conventions is really really bad news for 0.
He should be comfortably ahead at this point. He took his best shot over the summer and epically failed. I suspect 0 is as high in the polls right now as he is going to get.
You always seem to know what your talking about,so I trust your judgment. I just find it slightly unnerving that polls don’t show OH and FL as in the Romney column as they should be.
Of course, that’s exactly what the MSM wants to do to conservative voters. Hopefully Romney will get a big bounce from the convention and the polling will be too much to cook anymore.
Absent an October surprise or Obama and thugs turn it violent.
Wait until Labor Day comes, when the campaign goes into high gear.
Just saw Rep. Ryan in a send-off speech in WI, very strong and forceful. He did say Catholic Republican.
Right VA is trending Blue which is why they just elected a hard cored Conservative like McDonnell Gov.
I’m inclined to believe your contact - just look at Mika on Morning Joe lately, behaving near clinically depressed. She, with her direct line to the White House, with her cellphone lighting up to rebut some Republican point made by a guest of Joe’s.
All it does is reinforce the media-created stereotype of the “Stoopid Republican!”.
I agree. It is absolutely outrageous to me that Akin won't step down, and that Huckabee (and some Freepers) have been defending him.
Akin actually seems to be enjoying all of the added attention. He's the most clueless conservative candidate to come along since Christine "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell...
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