Right VA is trending Blue which is why they just elected a hard cored Conservative like McDonnell Gov.
VA has odd year state elections, which tend to produce GOP governors due the different issues and turnout models. This will be an even year election, coupled with a Presidential election coupled with the Black incumbent running for reelect. There will be massive turnout in Richmond and Hampton areas. The last set of VA polls I saw had the race even despite a 50/50 split in Blue NoVA (which the Dema have generally been carrying by a much wider margin). That shows the level of offset due to Richmond and Hampton Roads.
On top of that you now have Goode in the race, who will siphon off Conservatives who would have held their noses and voted Romney.
Over the last 16 years I’ve lived in Falls Church, Burke and Herndon, and have followed all the elections closely. VA, IMHO, is going to fall somewhere between a squeaker for Romney and a solid win for Obama.