2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread

Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

[Free Vulcan]

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.

[fatima]

Here’s mine.
Santorum 25
Romney 20
Newt 18

[Cato in PA]

I really, really hope Santorum pulls off an upset. The economy is important, don’t get me wrong, but America is in a moral crisis that is every bit as deep but often overshadowed. We need a leader with the courage to stand up to the perversion and degeneracy of the left. Defend DOMA! Fight for the culture of life in America!

That said, with everything that’s taken place over the past few weeks, I don’t think anyone can predict what will happen. We just have to leave it in God’s hands. I have a feeling that many of us will be very surprised.

[Rennes Templar]

I was being somewhat facetious, but the NDAA certainly is open to interpretation for US citizens, given the right scenario occurs...

[lormand]

"Santorum is acceptable, but I rather see a small government guy be the nominee."

Who would that be? The guy who adds appropriations to bills, votes against them, but spends the money any way on pork projects like "Wild Shrimp Research"? Ron Paul drones present a classic case study of what a cult is.

[TomGuy]

Debates are not necessarily a good indicator. Reagan lost his first presidential debate.

As for going up against Obama, a slick-talking used-car salesman, with a bit of preparation, could out-debate Obama.

Obama is a great speechifier, because he can read a teleprompter. Without the teleprompter, Obama is on equal ground with mortals, and he doesn’t hold up very well.

[Free Vulcan]

Anyone who says Iowa ‘picks the President’ is a fool. Iowa is part of the winnowing process and most here understand that.

It’s about the best state in the nation for retail politics and letting campaigns get in the game with a low financial bar and build support, to avoid well funded candidates from having complete domination out of the gate.

[david1313]

You are in a dream world if you think Santorum could hang with Obama. Pile on Newt all you want to, he is the one that can handle the current President. You may not want to hear that, but it is reality. Rick is a pipe dream.

[annieokie]

I will AMEN that.

[jpsb]

Please explain to me why my congressional district should be forced to send money to D.C. and not get any back. Thanks. And oh by the way fishing (that includes shrimping) is a big industry here.

[emax]

That is true, but remember, so is existing laws, including the AUMF 2001 and the Patriot Act-and NDAA 2012 explicitly states that with regards to US citizens, current laws apply to US citizens. We could go on all day about how our current administration could abuse the Patriot Act-in fact, the Patriot Act could be abused by our current administration just as much as the NDAA 2012. We and our military-considering our military is made of USA citizens and consists of segments of the American people-need to have knowledge of our current laws, our rights and govt’s rights so that we can defend ourselves accordingly. It definitely seems that if someone who says NDAA 2012 is a disaster or catastrophy, their understanding of current law regarding govt powers and the constitution is simply not there. NDAA 2012 basically allocates govt power with regard to US citizens they have always had.

[wolfman23601]

You speak as if Obama is a God, but now that the hopey changey has been peeled away, he is exposed for the empty suit that he is. My neighbor’s 15 year old son could “hang” with Obama.

[Future Useless Eater]

.

How well they are poised nationally ...

Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest
20+ Polls listed at RCP [as of Dec 31st]
plus
YouGov polls 12/17, 12/10, 12/3, 11/26 11/19, 11/12, 11/5, 10/29, 10/22, 10/15, 10/08,
& Poll Position 12/11, 12/04, 11/27, 11/22, 11/8, 11/1 polls inserted chronologically

(Example methodology for this chart will be on my profile page)

[david1313]

Ok, we will see. You may not like it, but Obama has political skills. It will take someone who can think on their feet to beat him. I watched the debates, Rick loses people in his analysis. In the end, when we make a decision in the fall, all some will see are the debates. They are critical and have been for a number of years.

[ConfidentConservative]

I would like to see EVERYONE posting, to POST at least one prayer for Iowa today!

Please Pray for the voters of IOWA!

[napscoordinator]

We’re looking at a 2 man race going forward. Perry vs Romney.

Oh come on. Really? Perry will finish close to last in Iowa and dead last in NH. I believe that you may be over estimating people in Iowa.

[pgkdan]

Ok...we’ll talk again tomorrow.

[McGruff]

I am so sick of the 24 hour news programs hype that I stopped watching them. Finally some concrete results not the daily polling reports. I’m beginning to believe it’s all made up just to fill the 24 hour news day.

And one more thing. I’m sick of Iowa getting all the attention. By the time it gets to my state I won’t have a vote.

[rhombus]

Whether or not “our guy or gal” has great debate skills will be irrelevant. Obama and his media will have the debatees rigged so there will be no “big moments”.

[Kenny]

And if Perry stands up to Obama the way he did that reporter (you got a name?), the people will see that the emporer is naked without debates.

[napscoordinator]

That’s a deal.